Halladay -330 tomorrow.....Buyer Beware!

[jorge1]

Lst week i took WSH +2.5 (-115) and everyone said "WSH wont even be CLOSE" LOL...cash money in the bank...think of it, without being greedy and wanting the extra +300, getting HOU +2.5 at -120 odds is AMAZING.

I think its exciting to bet them in the +310 ML, to win big, but i am near wanting to make a medium sized bet on this +2.5 Line...they might even win it outright.

Sawyer, I agree, in this situation i LOVE THE UNDER!

[MadCapper]

Lst week i took WSH +2.5 (-115) and everyone said "WSH wont even be CLOSE" LOL...cash money in the bank...think of it, without being greedy and wanting the extra +300, getting HOU +2.5 at -120 odds is AMAZING.

I think its exciting to bet them in the +310 ML, to win big, but i am near wanting to make a medium sized bet on this +2.5 Line...they might even win it outright.

Sawyer, I agree, in this situation i LOVE THE UNDER!

+2.5 -110 vs a team thats having trouble hitting seems like some great value!

[Popular]

They aren't winning the game outright as Halladay is lights out at home..But the +2.5 at this price is THE only play for this situation.. Thanks for bringing that up as that will probably end up being my play on this game if i bet it.. All the numbers point to the Phils being a 1 run favorite not including the pitchers.. Including the pitchers they are just over a 2 run favorite but in Halladays last 10 starts he's only covered that 2.5 4 times.. Happ has covered that +2.5 in 3 of his 5 starts after coming back from minors.. Astros have covered the +2.5 in 8 of their last 10 and the Phils have won the -2.5 4 of their last 10 games.. In the series the +2.5 is 3-2 this year.. So loving the +2.5 jorge =).. I might follow

[jorge1]

Yeah, thats what im sayin...i see there is a chance the ML hits, but i see it almost as a coin flip honestly. I would mark it in the 40 - 50 % range that it will hit. Although the value is great here gettin paid 3:!, i rather take the line that doesnt seem as much of a gamble. The +2.5 to me is about 90% gonna hit.
I expect a tight game, low scoring, and I dont believe PHILS have it to come out and shine after a frustriating night last night. Long a$$ 5 hour game, Howard thrown out, calls not goin their way, etc etc...i think they come back today to try and get their composure back, but not in a big way...possibly just try to settle in and get the win...but HOUSTON is in their heads right now...

for anyone who has played bases in real life, you know what im talkin about...when you have a tough tough game like that, its hard to jump right back and whoop the other team..usually you are coached to take it one inning at a time, one AT BAT at a time and just try to piece together the win...

HOU +2.5 (-120) is great value and a great bet in this situation (IN MY OPINION)

[MadCapper]

And how many people will be taking Boston -220 @ home with Beckett against Seattle and D. Paulie at 1pm?

This is another "lock" that everyoone will parlay.

You will see tons of 2,3,4 team parlays with Philly and Boston involved.

Buyer Beware!

How many people will be trying to get their day off right by wagering on the Red Sox -220 for the early game?

[Vastey]

MadCapper, thank for your advices! As young better I will write it to my mind.

[MadCapper]

MadCapper, thank for your advices! As young better I will write it to my mind.

No problem my friend. And good luck!

[Power Play]

At this point this season Beckett is a coin toss (expensive one at -210). Also the White Sox found out last week how hard it is to sweep a double header even against inferior competition (Royals).

[Popular]

I don't think the ML is anywhere near a coin flip with how dominant Halladay is at home.. I'd put it almost at 67/33.. You have to account for Happ playing up to Halladay tho which could lead to a 1-2 run lead.. The way that the +2.5 loses is if the Phils offense puts it together today.. One of these days they are going to put up 10 runs it's just hard to see it being this game in this situation.. Your right Jorge the only play is the +2.5 but I don't think it's anything more than a medium bet

[Power Play]

Even 67/33 only justify a -200 line or so. Bottom Line: Baseball lines involving "sure things" are generally over inflated to adjust for the public pounding and if you blindly take -200 lines or up long term you'll lose as much as Brandon Lang.

[MadCapper]

I don't think the ML is anywhere near a coin flip with how dominant Halladay is at home.. I'd put it almost at 67/33.. You have to account for Happ playing up to Halladay tho which could lead to a 1-2 run lead.. The way that the +2.5 loses is if the Phils offense puts it together today.. One of these days they are going to put up 10 runs it's just hard to see it being this game in this situation.. Your right Jorge the only play is the +2.5 but I don't think it's anything more than a medium bet

I am not sure when Philly will explode. It seems Utley and Howard are not 100%. Happ is a lefty...which can even make things tougher for them, and Ibanez.

[linedrivr]

-343 for Halliday is absurd given the fact their offense is as stale as month old bread. Halliday got exactly 1 run of support his last outing lucking into a 1 - 0 win. The Astros will scratch out a few runs today. Not sure Philly can match on offense. Its Houston or pass.

[MadCapper]

Even 67/33 only justify a -200 line or so. Bottom Line: Baseball lines involving "sure things" are generally over inflated to adjust for the public pounding and if you blindly take -200 lines or up long term you'll lose as much as Brandon Lang.

Especially when you roll the due theory, the pissed off theory, the dominant starter theory, the defending nl champs theory, the shitty opponent theory all into one.

[Popular]

You have to look at the rule rather than the exception.. They only won by 1 run because it was 1-0.. In his previous 9 starts before that game they averaged just under 5 runs in support.. If your going to tell me that the Astros are going to put up 6 tonight to cover the rule rather than the exception than I'll take any bet you'd like to make.. It's just not realistic when 9 out of 10 games its 5 runs and 1 out of 10 games its 1 run.. But take whatever you need to bet on Houston.. Good luck with your bet =)

[MadCapper]

You have to look at the rule rather than the exception.. They only won by 1 run because it was 1-0.. In his previous 9 starts before that game they averaged just under 5 runs in support.. If your going to tell me that the Astros are going to put up 6 tonight to cover the rule rather than the exception than I'll take any bet you'd like to make.. It's just not realistic when 9 out of 10 games its 5 runs and 1 out of 10 games its 1 run.. But take whatever you need to bet on Houston.. Good luck with your bet =)

Do you have Philly and/or Boston together in any parlays today? 1 of those teams will lose.

[AMcBoarder]

Thanks for all the good info! Very helpful.
Going with Houston +1.5 and UN 7. Good luck all.

[Popular]

I've already said in this thread that the only play I'll make on this game is Houston +2.5.. More than likely I won't touch it though because I see no value either way and the Boston game is the coin flip of the two.. Pauley is more than solid and Beckett is worse than good

[goallinebob]

I can't see halladay losing in 5 which is my play

Halladay 5 past,,and 2 shutouts in last 2 9 inn starts,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,worth a shot,,,
2-0-0-1-0-0-1-2-0-0

[Popular]

Also.. No theory's make this a play one way or the other.. The numbers prove Halladay is a dominant starter..The numbers also prove that the Phils score for him.. The numbers also show the Astros currently are performing at a higher level than they have all season yet have only put up more than 4 runs once in their last 10 games.. They also show that Happ has been solid in 4 of his last 5 starts since coming back.. The game is going to more than likely be close but there is no justification other than hoping to hit a big bet off of an exception to bet on the Houston ML

[MadCapper]

Thanks for all the good info! Very helpful.
Going with Houston +1.5 and UN 7. Good luck all.

Its a damn good thread. Here to help!

[MadCapper]

I can't see halladay losing in 5 which is my play

Halladay 5 past,,and 2 shutouts in last 2 9 inn starts,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,worth a shot,,,
2-0-0-1-0-0-1-2-0-0

Whats the number?

[goallinebob]

also due to juice i will parlay him to Cahill in 5 as this is another strong win today

[goallinebob]

runs allowed in past starts in 5 inn

[MadCapper]

Also.. No theory's make this a play one way or the other.. The numbers prove Halladay is a dominant starter..The numbers also prove that the Phils score for him.. The numbers also show the Astros currently are performing at a higher level than they have all season yet have only put up more than 4 runs once in their last 10 games.. They also show that Happ has been solid in 4 of his last 5 starts since coming back.. The game is going to more than likely be close but there is no justification other than hoping to hit a big bet off of an exception to bet on the Houston ML

Bottom line? You have to be crazy to risk 330 to win 100 in this case.

And dont rely on Philly and Boston for your parlays either today.

[Popular]

You have to be crazy to assume value in either side of the ML for this game.. That's all I was trying to say =).. In the Boston game all the value is on Seattle

[goallinebob]

FYI

Happ 5 past,,runs allowed
0-1-3-0-7-0-2-1,,but he falters inn 6-9
6-9
0-6-0-0-1-4-0-8
game
0-7-3-0-8-4-2-9

[MadCapper]

You have to be crazy to assume value in either side of the ML for this game.. That's all I was trying to say =).. In the Boston game all the value is on Seattle

Point is....I know many people who are making 2 or 4 team parlays with Philly as the anchor to all.

And many have Boston in it as well.

I am just trying to warn people away from putting a lot on these games.

Yesterday everyone said Philly/Stl were locks. BOTH lost.

[goallinebob]

my thoughts on Boston game,,per both starters past

Hernandez 5 past
1-3-0-2-3-0-0-0-0,,shut out ball 4 starts in a row
6-9 Past
0-0-1-4-1-6-0-9-0
game
1-3-1-6-4-6-0-9-0

Have to ride King Felix in 5
________________________________________ ________
Lester 5 past
1-1-1-0-0-3-0-0-11,,think he allowed 9 of them last start
6-9
1-0-2-3-5-6-1-1-5
Game
2-1-3-3-5-9-1-1-16

I love Lester but can't play him today esp in 5

[Popular]

Happ hasn't gone past 6 innings in his last 5 games.. Those numbers are off of the Astros bullpen which is less than steller in tight situations

[goallinebob]

hernandez and Halladay both in 5,,get in early and get out early

[MadCapper]

Happ hasn't gone past 6 innings in his last 5 games.. Those numbers are off of the Astros bullpen which is less than steller in tight situations

They were solid last night....thats of course because Philly is having trouble scoring!

[Popular]

I agree.. I was stating in another thread in the first game of the Boston series that games like this happen every day and every day people take the ML and win a little bit/Lose a lot or they take the RL and when the game ends 4-3 acts like it's the teams offensive fault they they've ignored the numbers/history as a capper.. Regardless of who anyone bets today I hope you win =)

[legendmatt34]

Ya. Hou has the'r number

[goallinebob]

would love for you guys to give me your opinion on my 3rd game in parlay

Cahill 5 past,,,,,,will def be on him in 5 today
5-1-5-1-0-0-0-1-2

[Popular]

The 3rd game is Oakland?