Two best plays on the board Monday

[mcbaseball10]

Braves 6-1 last 7 Game #1s, 5-1 last 6 v West, 9-3 last 12 overall, Hudson 6-0 last 6, 4-1 on Mon; Colo 2-7 last 9 vs winning teams, 5-14 last 19 RHP, 2-4 last 6 overall, Hammels 2-5 Game #1s, 1-6 v East

Yet the line is -117 The books have these stats too.

[WiseGrumpy]

Usually when you say that and doesn't touch the game the other side wins.

Even if that was true, gambling for a living is about placing the correct bet, Braves are the bet, in the long run if you bet correctly you make money.

[No coincidences]

Even if that was true, gambling for a living is about placing the correct bet, Braves are the bet, in the long run if you bet correctly you make money.

If the Braves are the bet, why is the ML dropping with this being one of the biggest public plays of the day?

[Pauulzcappin]

If the Braves are the bet, why is the ML dropping with this being one of the biggest public plays of the day?

You are not even close here Coins

[WiseGrumpy]

If the Braves are the bet, why is the ML dropping with this being one of the biggest public plays of the day?

One thing I don't do is pay too much attension to such things. Might be a mistake and I know you and LB do very well thnx to movments alone, but I try not to look too much into that, so I don't have an answer.

[LolsMcwinsey]

So you are basing who will win on line movement?

[Pauulzcappin]

1- Boston
2- St. Louis
3- Washington
4- Detroit
5- Texas/Philadelphia/Atlanta

You can barely call that a public play on a card with 10 games.

[LolsMcwinsey]

If braves win, I am going to trash this thread. If you are right and COL wins, I will be nowhere to be seen.

[No coincidences]

You are not even close here Coins

Third ranked public bet at Sportsbook.

74% ML and 94% RL on ATL.

http://www.sportsbook.com/livesports/widget-popup.php

[No coincidences]

So you are basing who will win on line movement?

That's all you got from my posts?

[No coincidences]

If braves win, I am going to trash this thread. If you are right and COL wins, I will be nowhere to be seen.

It's my opinion, moron.

Unlike you and your alter-egos, I don't "guarantee" anything.

[Pauulzcappin]

http://odds.sbrforum.com/#/odds/mlb/whole_game/moneyline.html

[LolsMcwinsey]

It's my opinion, moron.

Unlike you and your alter-egos, I don't "guarantee" anything.

I am my own person

[No coincidences]

http://odds.sbrforum.com/#/odds/mlb/...moneyline.html

Those all look pretty balanced to me.

Again, take the RL into consideration as well. Joe Schmoe is banking on a big ATL win.

Squarebook is a great fading tool.

[LolsMcwinsey]

btw. Paco is on the Braves ML

[No coincidences]

btw. Paco is on the Braves ML

Good for paco.

Link?

[Pauulzcappin]

Those all look pretty balanced to me. Again, take the RL into consideration as well. Joe Schmoe is banking on a big ATL win. Squarebook is a great fading tool.

Joe who?

[WiseGrumpy]

Just want to point about some things. In general HUGE public bets are a good spot to stay away, it's true, but that is mostly because those bets are usually bad bets price wise and in the long run they will kill you. This price is a great price and you can look at it in a way of how the best pitcher in the last few games is such a small favorite but there is a lot going when the line is set ... with that being said we see MANY MANY public bets hit, a lot of 95% and more as well. So I rather look at different things.

[CHAZ]

I like the COLORADO pick nocoin. Heres what I posted in another thread.

Careful Colorado hits very well at home and in my opinion Tim Hudson's stats are alittle skewed.

Last 10 teams hes pitched against: WSH, LAD, SF, NYM, @WSH, SD, MIL, @NYM, FLA, WSH

Only 2 were on the road and MIL being the only good hitting team in there, they put up 6 runs against him too.

Goodluck w/ your play.

[thebestthereis]

you can't win no coin. you would get completely torn a new if you took the braves with 100 reason to take colorado, either way you would get tortured. you are the right side here with the rockies in this situation, matchup and price. good luck i bet the rockies last night.

[No coincidences]

I like the COLORADO pick nocoin. Heres what I posted in another thread.

Again, I think you're playing with fire if you back a contact pitcher with a low-K rate at Coors -- even when it's one of the best in Hudson.

We'll see.

[No coincidences]

you can't win no coin. you would get completely torn a new if you took the braves with 100 reason to take colorado, either way you would get tortured. you are the right side here with the rockies in this situation, matchup and price. good luck i bet the rockies last night.

Hope you're right.

I really like the play personally, but I can understand why it'd be easy to drool all over Huddy at this price.

Again, I'm not guaranteeing anything.

[No coincidences]

Just want to point about some things. In general HUGE public bets are a good spot to stay away, it's true, but that is mostly because those bets are usually bad bets price wise and in the long run they will kill you. This price is a great price and you can look at it in a way of how the best pitcher in the last few games is such a small favorite but there is a lot going when the line is set ... with that being said we see MANY MANY public bets hit, a lot of 95% and more as well. So I rather look at different things.

You know I respect you and your capping ability, WG.

BOL tonight -- at least one of us will cash!

[No coincidences]

Joe who?

Public.

[WiseGrumpy]

You know I respect you and your capping ability, WG.

BOL tonight -- at least one of us will cash!

And you know I respect you.
It's all good, no matter what happens in this game ... you are probably the only one here that starts strong discussions about the games which is VERY important.

[RICOCHE6868]

Thank you

HELLO BROTHER, HE FOLLOWED THE TRUTH IN YOUR COMMENTS AND MLB is excellent, I would be very pleased to receive DAILY FIXED YOUR HELP IN THE MLB, TO MAKE MY Combine cash, much will thank you.
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[og4667]

nocoin makes a great point about hudson being a contact pitcher and he will struggle tonight at coors with the ball flying all over the place. From what I can see rockies will be a winner, also potential plays on the pirates, reds, and blue jays.

[CHAZ]

Over 8.5?

[70kgman]

Want to know a really bizarre stat? Colorado have the best home batting average in all of MLB. But are dead last in batting average on the road. Hard to believe the same offense could be that much of a Jeckyl and Hyde depending on what stadium they are playing in. Only humidor baseballs at Coors for the away team, and regular baseballs for Colorado? Hmmm...I am on to their scam.

[Rbyrne]

Braves win here.....another example of everyone over thinking an easy play....Rockies are horrible

[No coincidences]

Massive RLM on Colorado, which is now +102.

[HOT WINGS]

Massive RLM on Colorado, which is now +102.

I hope the RLM works out for ya. This is the only reason I stayed away from game. Really think braves win but no money on it for me so go rockies!

[JR007]

Like Lb says..."smart money doe not win all the time but rather be on the "right side of it"

[mcbaseball10]

No coin, regardless of outcome in this game I agree with your analysis 100%. I had this one on my radar from the outset. Great analysis doesn't guarantee wins but you have to be able to understand why a line is set the way it is and bet the games accordingly.

[hawley]

has there been any movement on the reds line?