How the F**** do you bastards do it?

rkelly110 · 08-23-10, 09:07 AM

Dude, check out Vegas Gold on this page, he's money.

AceKingHigh · 08-23-10, 09:14 AM

Yeah, VG having decent picks and I follow alll his bets all the time everyday!

you can make money following him on MLB.

rustyscrub · 08-23-10, 09:20 AM

VG has been money --- so is Mr. Profit sometimes

Socrates · 08-23-10, 09:29 AM

Ok, but what about when VG isn't around? Do any of you guys really make money? I tried, I really did, but damn it's a bitch to win in baseball.

I'll take a look. I hope I don't regret it. I'll probably place 5 dollar bets with VG then, since I'm still scarred from my losses in MLB. Here I go again.

SRBI · 08-23-10, 09:30 AM

Easy. Don't bet more than 1 game per day, and invest more of your time capping a more predictable sport, like soccer.

Socrates · 08-23-10, 09:33 AM

Originally posted by SRBI

Easy. Don't bet more than 1 game per day, and invest more of your time capping a more predictable sport, like soccer.

You don't know how bad I wanted soccer season to come around. There is no soccer worth betting on when the leagues are dormant during June, and July. The world cup was different then club soccer, and it's just not the same.

You know Boxing and the UFC is only ever other week to month. So...2 months of no gambling? I don't think so...

SRBI · 08-23-10, 09:42 AM

Originally posted by Socrates

You don't know how bad I wanted soccer season to come around. There is no soccer worth betting on when the leagues are dormant during June, and July. The world cup was different then club soccer, and it's just not the same.

You know Boxing and the UFC is only ever other week to month. So...2 months of no gambling? I don't think so...

It's all about discipline. If you ain't got that you ain't got shit. Discipline equals good money management.

Socrates · 08-23-10, 09:57 AM

Originally posted by SRBI

It's all about discipline. If you ain't got that you ain't got shit. Discipline equals good money management.

You're very right SRBI. I'm tailing VG on baseball now by the way.

therber2 · 08-23-10, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by Socrates

Well, I'm done. This is by far the most random sport out of the ones I normally gamble on. The Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Pads etc win then lose then win, then lose, win, lose lose. It's almost as if they have patterns. The yankees will beat the Royals on game one then get their asses kicked 7 to 1 on game two.

You got it. Certain teams have patterns, and baseball teams in general show patterns that agree or conflict. You have to find an agreement between the general and specific in this regard.

Baseball is not a hard sport to bet. Practically free money. Hardest sport I think is NHL so a lot of respect from me for the guys who can do that.

EBDOG · 08-23-10, 10:15 AM

i always build my bankroll then lose most of it in baseball

rkelly110 · 08-23-10, 10:35 AM

Socrates, you say you're good at soccer, will you have a thread in the soccer forum?
The games have begun! Man U got me w/ the tie yesterday.

solobass · 08-23-10, 10:42 AM

Socrates, the funny thing is in spring training you will see about 50,000 posts about how good people are at MLB and slowly they fade away and the cream rises to the top. If you want to be successful you must have a consistent method of handicapping the games. Say if you want to pay a team on a 3 game winning streak against a team with a 3 game losing streak based on that information alone. Will that be a play every time teams are on a streak like that, or are you just mining random data to justify a play? If it is a play one time make it a play every time. Then selectivity will lead you to the promised land. Best of luck my friend and hang in there!

arnoldrothstein · 08-23-10, 10:43 AM

baseball is hands down the easiest sports to make money. all i do is play parlays and ive won 14k this month. if them fags the LA dodgers would have covered +2 1-2 i would have won 6k more fvck LA i havent miss a game in 3 days and have only won 600 because of 1 game on these f"ing parlays i had to get that off my chest.

nbarlotta3 · 08-23-10, 10:48 AM

Baseball is by far the hardest sport to bet. I can't wait til football starts.

soxwin · 08-23-10, 11:02 AM

We all know that the average bettor loves to bet the favorite and the over b/c they want to see offense. So most hate baseball b/c they want to bet the favorite and the juice is much higher than other sports.

Betting baseball comes down to realizing that the difference between the best team and the worst team is very slight. The best team wins just over 60% of the time. That means they lose 2 out of every 5 games. The worst team still wins 35-40 % of the time. So they win between 1 out of 3 and 2 for 5. You have to realize that there really isn't much difference between the top and bottom and look at it accordingly.

You have to take each match up and figure out the win % needed to turn a profit on a game. For example say the yankees are -150. T turn a profit you would have to look at the game and determine that the yankees would win this game more than 60% of the time. If you can't say that they win this game 60% of the time, then the value lies with the dog. The hard part for most gamblers is figuring out how often a team should win a game or total. Sometimes the dog is +200(which is a 1/3 win rate) but the matchups, travel situation, and other factors lead you to believe that the dog has a 40% chance of winning, which equates to a +150 dog. SO you have tremendous value there.

People try to win every bet and in baseball the key is taking enough value bets to stay ahead. Very rarely is a big favorite a value bet, but a big dog can be.

mcbaseball10 · 08-23-10, 11:11 AM

Great post soxwin. So many times people will lose a -250 game on what on the surface looks to be a winner. How many -110 wins does it take to make up for 1 -250 loss? And many times people are willing to bet more on a a heavy favorite because they couldn't possibly lose, right?

slimpickins · 08-23-10, 11:11 AM

Teams go on streaks, you have to ride them properly to make money in this sport.
Mainly I mean offenses and streaks are also pitcher specific.

I will use the Yankees for example as they are usually the biggest public favorite.
As mentioned above they are going to - juice most every game but you can make money if you ride them when their offense starts to roll and maybe more importantly if their offense is struggling, get off that train and don't get sucked into the "they are due" theory.
Injuries are less important with baseball most of the time as well, for example Yankees are 11-0 with Arod out of the lineup.
When teams are rolling they are getting production from the little guys in the lineup and i becomes contagious throughout the lineup.

You have to look for and ride streaks on the losing end too. See an offense in a big funk like SFG on this most recent trip, CHC and LAD for awhile ; watch the first game of a series or maybe the first 2 and then realize the pattern and hammer that 3rd game!

arnoldrothstein · 08-23-10, 11:40 AM

cuz you must be a retard, football is a flip of the coin especially NFL!!!

Originally posted by nbarlotta3

Baseball is by far the hardest sport to bet. I can't wait til football starts.

phillybadboy · 08-23-10, 12:26 PM

tail Cappinpicks that guy has been on fire, big hitter

Pauulzcappin · 08-23-10, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by SRBI

Easy. Don't bet more than 1 game per day, and invest more of your time capping a more predictable sport, like soccer.

WiseGrumpy · 08-23-10, 12:31 PM

Don't want to get into this too much because we had a lot of threads like this one, but I will Soccer is the WORST sport to bet on if you want to make a living.

TodaysAction · 08-23-10, 12:37 PM

Socrates,

In alphabetical order here are three threads you (and others) should view on a daily basis:

paco's My MLB,
therber2's My Second Half MLB and
TodaysAction's No Rainouts if you're serious about wanting to make money this season from M.L.B..

Metatron · 08-23-10, 01:19 PM

Amen TA. All those guys are fantastic and also gentlemen. You will win by tailing these guys. Plus, you will become a better capper as well

Vegas Gold · 08-23-10, 01:46 PM

Originally posted by TodaysAction

Socrates,

In alphabetical order here are three threads you (and others) should view on a daily basis:

paco's My MLB,
therber2's My Second Half MLB and
TodaysAction's No Rainouts if you're serious about wanting to make money this season from M.L.B..

TodaysAction....You gave him good threads with great guys......BUT do I feel slighted. LOL

Take care all and Good Luck to all of you.....VEGAS GOLD

jorge1 · 08-23-10, 01:55 PM

I think its a great idea to check out these guys threads and tail them on picks you feel comfortable doing so...if you wanna know how to make money in baseball i say one thing:

DOGS

I have broken that rule a billion times, but the ppl who look for good dogs are the ones in the positive at the end of the day on a consistent basis...im honestly borderline about to just place 10 bucks on every dog every day and let it ride the rest of the season..lol.

BillAccpetor · 08-23-10, 02:06 PM

Stick with Totals and check out the team's pattern...

The Yankees are a good team to bet over (and RL -1.5)

WiseGrumpy · 08-23-10, 02:06 PM

I will say one thing:
There are a lot of great posters here, some of them were mentioned here, sometimes weren't, the most important thing is, DON'T TAIL BLIND! Use those threads to help you finlize your bets and not their bets ... if you respect someone and he is on the same play you want to play, go ahead with it, and if he is on the other side you can think twice, but never but blindly.
GL.

TodaysAction · 08-23-10, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by Metatron

Amen TA. All those guys are fantastic and also gentlemen. You will win by tailing these guys. Plus, you will become a better capper as well

Thank you Metatron and are gentlemen who have all gone out of there way to help other posters. If/when those three are all on the same action, it has proven to be very profitable this season.

Originally posted by Vegas Gold

TodaysAction....You gave him good threads with great guys......BUT do I feel slighted. LOL

Take care all and Good Luck to all of you.....VEGAS GOLD

Good afternoon Vegas Gold,

Thank you, above everything else I have always been fair. This was not to slight you. The largest reason I did not include you is I do not recall seeing you/your thread last season here. There are also four other first year posters here who are having very good season's. Continued success to you VegasGold.

Socrates · 08-23-10, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by rkelly110

Socrates, you say you're good at soccer, will you have a thread in the soccer forum? The games have begun! Man U got me w/ the tie yesterday.

I did one once, but I only got like 2 or 3 comments, and they were all saying good luck. lol

The straw that broke the camels back? I was betting a live match and the score was I believe 2 to 1 or some very low scoring game. I bet under 9 1/2 runs. It was the Yankees vs Cleveland (A-Rod was still at 599 runs I believe). It was I believe the 6th inning and I saw odds for the under at around -300 or so. I jumped on it and made an uncharacteristic $400 dollar bet. The odds seemed low to me, that's probably why I was so impuslive.

So the next inning comes and the ******* yankees score 8 or 9 runs in the 7th inning.

I swear I would have killed someone that night. Thank god I was alone that night. I just remember the bleeding wouldn't stop, I hate the Indians with a passion now. Lmao

J-Ro11 · 08-23-10, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by phillybadboy

tail Cappinpicks that guy has been on fire, big hitter

DONT DONT DONT

Posts plays after a win, changes past posts to make winners, false record, other known alias (many more) phillybadboy/lolmcwinsey

Seriously.

GL though. Everyone else is providing solid insight.

Gonna look for you in the soccer threads

Scully · 08-23-10, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by Socrates

I make money on soccer, boxing and the UFC. I generally do very well with these sports. Got into baseball 2 months ago, a sport i know about pretty well, know the stars, the teams etc, generally about the same as the rest of the sports. But the difference is i lose at baseball.

Since I've picked it up, I've lost about $500 dollars, placing 25 to 50 dollar bets. Less money on each bet then the other sports because I figured I'de get my feet wet.

Well, I'm done. This is by far the most random sport out of the ones I normally gamble on. The Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Pads etc win then lose then win, then lose, win, lose lose. It's almost as if they have patterns. The yankees will beat the Royals on game one then get their asses kicked 7 to 1 on game two.

In soccer, you know the giants (Barcelona, Madrid, Chelsea) will kick some ass most of the time, with maybe one loss per 5 games.

In baseball It just seems like there are way more games, so sometimes the teams don't give a shit about losing 1 out of a series of 4 games, the problem is knowing which game they'll crap out on.
Anyway, I'm done.

Socrates speaking of the UFC, who do you like in the Couture fight this weekend?

chanellygurl · 08-23-10, 03:09 PM

betting baseball is not like betting any other sport. baseball betting is one of the sports not really measured by wins and loses but more so how many net units you make. for example in football if you go 10-10 you may be only losing the juice, however in baseball 10-10 could mean you are up a ton or down a ton. it is very key in baseball to see the value of the team in its spot. meaning throwout what happened in yesterdays game because todays game is a whole new ballgame. some teams can only hit a certain type of pitcher, some teams rely on their defense. these are all the things you must look at everyday to pick and find your spot and make you wager based on the best value the books are giving you. betting the powerhouse are hard simply because one lose sets you back tons because of the vig. betting heavy dogs go the same way. you need to find the medium of these and slowly make bets were you will get the most bang for your buck. a lot of cappers on here are solid with this and if you follow them and try to under stand why they made a play it would open your eyes to more then what goes on. gl2u on the rest of the season.

Socrates · 08-23-10, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by J-Ro11

DONT DONT DONT Posts plays after a win, changes past posts to make winners, false record, other known alias (many more) phillybadboy/lolmcwinsey Seriously. GL though. Everyone else is providing solid insight. Gonna look for you in the soccer threads

Put my picks in a thread somewhere, can't remember which, but I had Man City first half Pk and Mancity Pk to win the game. So far City is winning 3 to 0. Great soccer day for me today.

I'll put up a thread, see how it goes though.

Originally posted by Scully

Socrates speaking of the UFC, who do you like in the Couture fight this weekend?

Toney doesn't have the stamina anymore. It's one thing to train constantly as an old guy, like Couture, and it's another to come back from the dead and then start training, ala Toney.

Couture wins by decision via a boring fight.

ChileCheese · 08-23-10, 03:37 PM

Here is a suggestion. Fade good teams on the road.