MLB Odds: Second Half National League Betting
One betting surprise has already hit the NL with Tuesday's skid-breaking 3-1 win in the All-Star Game. Will 'unders' continue to dominate and what about the Reds?
Welcome to the Dog Days of Summer, when some baseball clubs wilt under the heat and some keep up with the thermometer and rise to the occasion. After paying attention to this game for five decades now, there often is no rhyme or reason to either occurrence.
There have been several pleasant surprises in the National League up to now, with the Padres coming to mind quickest. Disappointments have also been seen, with the Phillies and Cardinals struggling somewhat after being heavy preseason MLB betting favorites to win their divisions and finding much tougher fights on their hands.
But there's no money to be made in the past. With that in mind, here are a few teams and stats that bettors might want to keep an eye on once all of these All-Star festivities are done and teams return to the diamond.
Houston Astros
Might as well start with the team I feel most knowledgeable with, my beloved 'Stros.
Just after the quarter pole of the season (May 25), Houston's offense had plated all of 133 runs (2.95 per game). That was by far the worst mark at the time. The Astros' 15-30 record was also understandably the worst in the NL. Ironically, that was the same record the team sported in 2005 before it began its unlikely run towards the franchise's only NL Pennant.
There will be no run to the playoffs like five years ago, but the offense has improved by half-run per game to a 3.45 average. Houston's record since May 25 is 21-23 straight up and split 21-21-2 on the totals after beginning the season 26-16-3 'under.'
The Astros entered the All-Star break on a 6-1-2 'under' run, with six of those nine games played against the Cardinals and Padres who each feature strong arms. The first five series Houston has on its schedule to begin the second half are against the likes of the Cubs (twice), Pirates, Reds and Brewers.
I look for the Astros to increase their scoring to the 3.75 RPG range by season's end, and that should translate to a few more 'overs' down the stretch.
Colorado Rockies
Speaking of totals, has someone been tinkering with the humidor at Coors Field? A recent 10-game Rockies homestand resulted in the 'over' cashing seven times, and that followed four consecutive 'overs' on the road in Anaheim and San Diego.
Before that stretch Colorado was among the stronger 'under' squads in the majors at 43-29-2. The Rockies will begin the second half 46-40-2 on the totals board, with seven of their first 11 contests on the road in the hitter-friendly environments of Cincinnati and Philadelphia.
Outfielder Carlos Gonzalez has been an absolute terror for opposing pitchers in the past couple of weeks while Clint Barmes has raised his average about 40 points while filling in at short for the injured Troy Tulowitzki. Dexter Fowler also returned from a short Triple-A demotion and provided an offensive spark.
Unless they start to shift the settings on the humidor in Denver or Gonzalez is out of the lineup for an extended period, watch for more Rockies games going 'over' the total.
Cincinnati Reds
Perhaps it's due to my futures ticket on the St. Louis Cardinals to win the NL Central that is clouding my mind here. But I just don't see the Reds holding on to win this division.
Granted, the Cardinals are a blown knee ligament on Albert Pujols or Chris Carpenter frayed rotator away from serious trouble themselves. But that's true for a lot of clubs who might lose their biggest bat or a top starting pitcher.
ESPN broadcaster Joe Morgan – of whom I'm a big fan – noted the other night that Cincinnati has the best defense in the National League. I'm not going to argue with him, but perhaps it's Morgan's love for the Reds that is also clouding his judgment.
Mike Leake and Johnny Cueto have been great stories for the Reds so far, and the new kid Travis Wood could step in to give Cincy another good arm in the second half. But I'm not buying into this team taking the division in the end.
If there's anything in their favor, the Reds still have a lot of games left against the Cubs, Astros, Pirates and Brewers, the weak sisters of the division. In all, 33 of their final 72 games will come against that quartet. More than half (18-15) are on the road, however.
Put me down for Cincinnati winning no more than 34 games the rest of the way.
NOTE: The W-L records shown for starting pitchers are their team's W-L mark when they started games in the 2010 season. Statistical sources for this article were Retrosheet.org, Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN.com and, of course, S-BEE-R-dot-com!
One betting surprise has already hit the NL with Tuesday's skid-breaking 3-1 win in the All-Star Game. Will 'unders' continue to dominate and what about the Reds?
Welcome to the Dog Days of Summer, when some baseball clubs wilt under the heat and some keep up with the thermometer and rise to the occasion. After paying attention to this game for five decades now, there often is no rhyme or reason to either occurrence.
There have been several pleasant surprises in the National League up to now, with the Padres coming to mind quickest. Disappointments have also been seen, with the Phillies and Cardinals struggling somewhat after being heavy preseason MLB betting favorites to win their divisions and finding much tougher fights on their hands.
But there's no money to be made in the past. With that in mind, here are a few teams and stats that bettors might want to keep an eye on once all of these All-Star festivities are done and teams return to the diamond.
Houston Astros
Might as well start with the team I feel most knowledgeable with, my beloved 'Stros.
Just after the quarter pole of the season (May 25), Houston's offense had plated all of 133 runs (2.95 per game). That was by far the worst mark at the time. The Astros' 15-30 record was also understandably the worst in the NL. Ironically, that was the same record the team sported in 2005 before it began its unlikely run towards the franchise's only NL Pennant.
There will be no run to the playoffs like five years ago, but the offense has improved by half-run per game to a 3.45 average. Houston's record since May 25 is 21-23 straight up and split 21-21-2 on the totals after beginning the season 26-16-3 'under.'
The Astros entered the All-Star break on a 6-1-2 'under' run, with six of those nine games played against the Cardinals and Padres who each feature strong arms. The first five series Houston has on its schedule to begin the second half are against the likes of the Cubs (twice), Pirates, Reds and Brewers.
I look for the Astros to increase their scoring to the 3.75 RPG range by season's end, and that should translate to a few more 'overs' down the stretch.
Colorado Rockies
Speaking of totals, has someone been tinkering with the humidor at Coors Field? A recent 10-game Rockies homestand resulted in the 'over' cashing seven times, and that followed four consecutive 'overs' on the road in Anaheim and San Diego.
Before that stretch Colorado was among the stronger 'under' squads in the majors at 43-29-2. The Rockies will begin the second half 46-40-2 on the totals board, with seven of their first 11 contests on the road in the hitter-friendly environments of Cincinnati and Philadelphia.
Outfielder Carlos Gonzalez has been an absolute terror for opposing pitchers in the past couple of weeks while Clint Barmes has raised his average about 40 points while filling in at short for the injured Troy Tulowitzki. Dexter Fowler also returned from a short Triple-A demotion and provided an offensive spark.
Unless they start to shift the settings on the humidor in Denver or Gonzalez is out of the lineup for an extended period, watch for more Rockies games going 'over' the total.
Cincinnati Reds
Perhaps it's due to my futures ticket on the St. Louis Cardinals to win the NL Central that is clouding my mind here. But I just don't see the Reds holding on to win this division.
Granted, the Cardinals are a blown knee ligament on Albert Pujols or Chris Carpenter frayed rotator away from serious trouble themselves. But that's true for a lot of clubs who might lose their biggest bat or a top starting pitcher.
ESPN broadcaster Joe Morgan – of whom I'm a big fan – noted the other night that Cincinnati has the best defense in the National League. I'm not going to argue with him, but perhaps it's Morgan's love for the Reds that is also clouding his judgment.
Mike Leake and Johnny Cueto have been great stories for the Reds so far, and the new kid Travis Wood could step in to give Cincy another good arm in the second half. But I'm not buying into this team taking the division in the end.
If there's anything in their favor, the Reds still have a lot of games left against the Cubs, Astros, Pirates and Brewers, the weak sisters of the division. In all, 33 of their final 72 games will come against that quartet. More than half (18-15) are on the road, however.
Put me down for Cincinnati winning no more than 34 games the rest of the way.
NOTE: The W-L records shown for starting pitchers are their team's W-L mark when they started games in the 2010 season. Statistical sources for this article were Retrosheet.org, Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN.com and, of course, S-BEE-R-dot-com!