If you can get a sample larger than 200 games then you have a case, but 15 games is BS
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And why do you assume umps (even if they do mean something) aren't factored into the line?
Dont buy into this unless you wanna go broke, fast...Comment -
Tichenor was like 3-13 home teams last year don't waste yer time w/this.....if u gotta scour ump data just to grind out a few cents then get a better jobComment -
datamining blows on so many levels anyway trust me....look where it's finally gettin al gore these daysComment -
Interesting article, but it would be interesting to know what the moneylines were during the 15-0 run. Since linesmakers are usually smarter than most, I bet they have this info, too.Comment -
Nice article.Comment -
very nice ....GLComment -
ive been using ump trends on over/under this year (looking at the top 5 for overs and unders)...started out really hot but has cooled down big time.
iasognna went over today and welke is about to go under (0-2 today)Comment -
Statfox has a very good breakdown of the umps. Last night's LAA game below:
UMPIRE STATSScheduled Home Plate Umpire: TIM WELKETIM WELKE- game stats when serving as the home plate umpire Home Team RecordScoreAvg Game Statistics W-LUnitsOV-UNHomeRoadAVGOBPERAWHIPBBSOThis Season10-5+4.110-36.74.40.2640.3174.891.3475.616.1Last 3 Seasons39-40-11.843-305.25.10.2650.3304.731.4056.714.7Since 1997251-194+8.4196-2234.94.70.2660.3314.461.3996.713.4Comment -
Sorry, I cut and pasted it and it came out like sh*t. Anyway, it's a good tool that I use.Comment -
Come on peoples, lets not kid ourselves here. Umpires, are you serious. Batters are either going to hit the ball or not.Comment -
Brilliant assessment. I'm almost embarrassed to write that I've never considered that factor.Comment -
I can see how it would lead to 0.5-1 run differences in games, which is worth about 15-30 cents. I don't see how you can deny it as a factor when capping totals.
I guess it goes back to how you cap games. If you go with your gut and pick teams, this isn't for you. If you use stats, trends, models, then you already probably know about this.
Good post LTComment -
I also don't see how some people think it isn't a factor at all....at least for totals. If an ump has a much more liberal strike zone, then that benefits the pitchers and could mean an under. If he has a much more strict and smaller strike zone then that definitely benefits the hitters.
Btw, does anybody know where to find all of this ump data. I want to look at what is going on for today. Thanks.Comment -
Stats, trends, models are useless. No stat is going to help you figure out weather a player hits a DP or a HR. No stat can determine an error or wild pitch which could screw an under which the stats have lead you to believe that thats the play.Comment -
Wow....that's quite a post. interesting stuff.Comment -
Watch out LT! The books might be sending someone to "whack" you after last night!Comment -
yep, huge for totals.Comment -
I've not been a regular on SBR but came back today to start a thread and share similar information as this thread, so I'm glad I don't need to start it. I have been on fire for the months of May and June mostly because of researching umpires, you CANNOT ignore this factor, this is a much more predictable variable than any other in baseball. There are 3 main things I look for when making a side bet.
1. Umpire record for the home or away team, if one side wins more than 70% for that ump, thats one check mark.
2. The pitching match up, who as the better WHIP and ERA.
3. Record in that game of the series, for instance San Diego is a much better play in game 2 17-7 of a series than game 3 9-13. Plus you can also look the situational stats for that game SD is 9-5 in game 2 of series after a win and 8-2 after a loss.
If a team gets a check in all three lock it in. The hard part is betting on Fridays and Monday or Tuesday as teams start their new series.
Then when it comes to over/unders. If the up is again 75% in either direction and their average total is a run better than the actual, that is usually a great play as well. A perfect example was last week when Toronto was playing at San Diego, the umps were heavy on the overs with averages around 9 or better and the totals for all the games were 6.5, 6 and 6.5, the actual totals ended up 9,10, and 8.
Lastly the easy bett to make is a team that has just lost 3 home games in a row, not many will lose the 4th and definitely not the 5th, not even Houston they just lost the 4th when they face Lincecum but won the 5th and 6th.
In short pay attention the umps and make money!Comment -
Oh, and I usually use Usatoday.com for most of my research.Comment -
Umpires will not be available for game 1 of series until about 30-20 mins prior to the start of the game. The first place it will be posted is on MLB.comComment -
Such an ignorant comment. Umpires control the entire game. Each team gets 27 outs but depending on the umpire they could get more or less (not literally). If a pitcher paints the corner on 3-2 there are some umps that will call it strike 3 and there are some umps that will call it ball 4. One pitch like that changes the entire outcome of the game. It takes an out off the board, it puts a guy on base, it works the pitchers pitch count, it puts the pitcher in the stretch, and it could lead to runs. Or how about a 1-1 pitch thats on the corner? An over ump calls it a ball, an under ump calls it a strike. The difference between a 2-1 count a 1-2 is enormous for both the pitcher and the batter and once again changes the entire game. Its no coincidence that a guy like Bill Miller has had one season in the last decade where he's called more overs than unders and that season he called just one more over. He's got a huge zone and he shortens games.
Bill Miller
2010 - 6-10/9.00 rpg
2009 - 10-22/8.94 rpg
2008 - 13-21/8.03 rpg
2007 - 15-19/9.82 rpg
2006 - 16-17/10.18 rpg
2005 - 13-18/8.09 rpg
2004 - 15-18/8.97 rpg
2003 - 18-18/9.46 rpg
2002 - 17-16/9.35 rpg
2001 - 9-25/7.91 rpg
2000 - 0-0/0.00 rpg
1999 - 8-12/9.39 rpg
Sure, he'll have games where they are completely out of his hands but he also has many games where he'll single handily take runs off the board which could be the difference between the over or the under.
Or how about Jim Reynolds consistently nailing the overs...
Jim Reynolds
2010 - 6-3/8.89 rpg
2009 - 18-11/9.72 rpg
2008 - 21-11/10.26 rpg
2007 - 21-13/10.50 rpg
Andy Fletcher nailing the unders...
Andy Fletcher
2010 7-8/9.20 rpg
2009 10-21/8.32 rpg
2008 12-17/8.12 rpg
2007 4-13/7.17 rpg
Mike Estabrook hitting the unders and keeping the runs down year after year...
Mike Estabrook
2010 4-10/6.93 rpg
2009 9-13/8.61 rpg
2008 7-15/8.23 rpg
2007 0-4/5.25 rpg
These aren't coincidences. There's a reason behind those numbers.Comment -
You have to take the ump into account if you are going to handicap baseball seriously. When an umpire has established himself as an 'over' or 'under' machine over a 5 year period, there is something there. Sure you'll lose sometimes, but I think it's more of a factor than people think.Comment -
enjoyed the read and your breakdown, would be nice to see this thread updated daily. i just know and admit to being to lazy to do it.Comment -
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finally someone brings refs and umps into their betting tendancies..... but in baseball its not as much into it... depends on the pitcher or batter when it comes to certain umps. if a pitcher throws alot of strikes or a batter walks alot. those players will get borderline calls in their favor with most umps... you just gotta find out who the umps are, who the pitchers are, and the batters on the team... but it really is not easy to figure it out... for example if the pitcher does not walk many but he if facing a patient team like the sox then it doesn't matter about the umps because its gonna be a hard game to figure which way the ump will lean towards.... good luck betters in picking a game on umps...Comment -
interesting
in 2009 Tichenor was 12-23 for home teams, minus 15 units. 2008, 9-3 plus 6 units. so maybe he started out liking home teams, then he was like "fuk i gotta even things out" but then he way overcompensated, so then in 2010 he was like "fuk i gotta give more to home teams now!" but then he wayy overcompensated again!Comment -
lol... that is comical... see him behind the scenes like oh fukk i did it again lol
I think in the long term the home away trends with umps will fluctuate a lot, because plain and simple in most instances, they dont care who wins
however, over unders and umps makes a lot of sense, because the one thing that stays consistent is their own strike zone, and no matter what anyone says, that directly affects over unders...Comment -
well it's a somewhat treacherous factor, because unintentional, or possibly intentional, biases in umps almost certainly exist
but of course you have the problem of small sample sizes, and then to add to it, probably even more treacherous, is that they can easily change
you can be sure the umps are aware of their own tendencies, and just being aware of them is also likely to change them
if an ump with a legitimately smaller or larger than normal zone becomes aware of it, is he going to stick with and say "thats who i am" or is he going to try to make adjustments to get more in line with everyone else?Comment -
trueComment -
Did a wee bit of research, nothing heavy because its nearly bedtime. All this data is from 2006-2010 and only umpires with at least 100 games behind the dish are counted, this effectively counts all the umps who have worked for at least 4 of the 5 years in question.
Top 5 umps for overs (since 2006)
Code:[U]Umpire G Ov Un Pu OvUnits[/U] Jim Reynolds 142 81 53 8 +24.8 Larry Vanover 151 83 62 6 +16.7 Sam Holbrook 148 79 62 7 +13.6 Tim Welke 139 71 58 10 +10.5 Mike Reilly 153 79 67 7 +7.5
Top 5 umps for unders (since 2006)
There isn't really all that much to get excited about in terms of totals and i'd say the bookies definitely figure this in quite heavily. There seems to be very little correlation between strikeouts/walks per game by each ump in comparison to the total. Something thats probably going to work more is looking at the K/BB per game totals by each ump and trying to find a "fit" where the matchup is good.Code:[U]Umpire G Ov Un Pu UnUnits[/U] Bill Miller 157 59 89 9 +22.6 Andy Fletcher 132 50 73 9 +15.3 Ted Barrett 157 66 83 8 +8.6 Mark Carlson 116 48 63 5 +8.4 Ron Kulpa 141 59 75 7 +8.4
It's something that interests me but its something I need to take a good luck at after the world cup is over.Comment -
home plate ump has his strikezone, extra/less BB's or K's
might wanna look at teams/starting pitchers that K or BB less/more than average and with the aid of the ump there may be alot more/less K/BB with the combination of umpire/team offense/pitcher
example-pitcher who walks alot, ump who calls balls, team that draws walks combined leads to MANY more baserunnersComment
