MLB Betting Preview: Mets, Phils Collide
Oh what a difference a week can make, espcially this early in the baseball season. The New York Mets bring a seven-game win streak into Philadelphia for a weekend battle against the powerful Phils.
New York Mets, 2010 World Series Champions.
Has a certain ring to it. In the world of handicapping, you’re either an early adopter or a bandwagon jumper. Both can make you money, but there’s nothing better than taking an underdog right off the bat and watching it become your personal bank machine for the whole season.
The Mets just might be the right team for the job. Nobody has confidence in them because of past results, and they have a reasonable payoff at 20-1 on the World Series futures market.
What was that I said last week about it being too early to speculate? The Mets were in last place in the National League East Division at the time; one week later, they’re in first place at 13-9 (3.68 units). The Philadelphia Phillies have lost four of six to fall half a game behind New York at 12-9 (-0.47 units). Each team has a run differential of plus-24 as they prepare to meet in a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park starting Friday. Here are the projected starters.
Jonathon Niese vs. Kyle Kendrick (-150, 10½)
Friday, April 30 - 7:05 p.m. (ET)
We said Niese (4.68 xFIP) could use a little run support last week against the Atlanta Braves. He didn’t get it, but Niese still earned a 3-1 victory at +119 by holding Atlanta to five hits in 5.1 innings. He also walked five batters and racked up a high pitch count of 116, so fatigue might be an issue in Friday’s opener.
Niese’s 3.68 ERA to start the season is cosmetically enhanced by a high 79.3 percentage rate of runners stranded. He’ll eventually pay for it if he keeps walking batters.
Kendrick’s career has yet to take off since his promising 2007 rookie campaign. He spent most of last year at AAA-Clearwater and is only with the parent club this year because of injuries to Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ. The Phillies have lost three of his four starts, although Kendrick (5.07 xFIP) did shut out the Braves over eight innings in one of those losses. Early betting odds show Philadelphia as a -150 favorite with a total of 10½ runs.
Mike Pelfrey vs. Roy Halladay
Saturday, May 1 - 3:10 p.m. (ET)
Michael Alan Pelfrey could run for mayor at this point. He hasn’t allowed a run in his last 24 innings of work, and the Mets have won all four of his starts to put a quick 4.88 units of profit up on the board. Pelfrey (4.31 xFIP) has gotten a ridiculous amount of help: 93.6 percent of runners stranded and a puny .249 BABIP. He’s good, but not this good.
Pelfrey’s certainly not better than Roy Halladay, but he has a better record after Philly’s new ace gave up all five runs in a 5-1 loss to the San Francisco Giants (+136). It wasn’t a total disaster for Halladay (2.61 xFIP) with 10 hits and no walks over seven innings. By the way, his 1.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in five starts is almost equal to the 1.8 WAR Pelfrey gave the Mets in 31 starts last year.
Johan Santana vs. Jamie Moyer
Sunday, May 2 - 8:05 p.m. (ET) ESPN
Life is pretty good for Santana (3.96 xFIP) right now. The Mets have won four of his five starts for 1.54 units in earnings, and Santana has allowed a total of seven runs in 30.1 innings of baseball. He appears to have rebounded quite nicely from last year’s elbow injury, posting 8.31 strikeouts per nine innings, his best since joining the Mets in 2008.
Moyer (4.33 xFIP) fell off the pace a little last year and got bumped to the bullpen when Pedro Martinez signed with the Phillies. After four starts in 2010, Moyer has earned exactly one dollar on betting units of $100 with a pair of wins and a pair of losses. Moyer went his standard six innings in each game; Philadelphia’s bullpen is ranked No. 18 in the majors with a 4.08 ERA, while New York’s bullpen is No. 3 with a 2.51 ERA. It should be Philly’s pen getting the lion’s share of the work on Sunday.
Oh what a difference a week can make, espcially this early in the baseball season. The New York Mets bring a seven-game win streak into Philadelphia for a weekend battle against the powerful Phils.
New York Mets, 2010 World Series Champions.
Has a certain ring to it. In the world of handicapping, you’re either an early adopter or a bandwagon jumper. Both can make you money, but there’s nothing better than taking an underdog right off the bat and watching it become your personal bank machine for the whole season.
The Mets just might be the right team for the job. Nobody has confidence in them because of past results, and they have a reasonable payoff at 20-1 on the World Series futures market.
What was that I said last week about it being too early to speculate? The Mets were in last place in the National League East Division at the time; one week later, they’re in first place at 13-9 (3.68 units). The Philadelphia Phillies have lost four of six to fall half a game behind New York at 12-9 (-0.47 units). Each team has a run differential of plus-24 as they prepare to meet in a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park starting Friday. Here are the projected starters.
Jonathon Niese vs. Kyle Kendrick (-150, 10½)
Friday, April 30 - 7:05 p.m. (ET)
We said Niese (4.68 xFIP) could use a little run support last week against the Atlanta Braves. He didn’t get it, but Niese still earned a 3-1 victory at +119 by holding Atlanta to five hits in 5.1 innings. He also walked five batters and racked up a high pitch count of 116, so fatigue might be an issue in Friday’s opener.
Niese’s 3.68 ERA to start the season is cosmetically enhanced by a high 79.3 percentage rate of runners stranded. He’ll eventually pay for it if he keeps walking batters.
Kendrick’s career has yet to take off since his promising 2007 rookie campaign. He spent most of last year at AAA-Clearwater and is only with the parent club this year because of injuries to Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ. The Phillies have lost three of his four starts, although Kendrick (5.07 xFIP) did shut out the Braves over eight innings in one of those losses. Early betting odds show Philadelphia as a -150 favorite with a total of 10½ runs.
Mike Pelfrey vs. Roy Halladay
Saturday, May 1 - 3:10 p.m. (ET)
Michael Alan Pelfrey could run for mayor at this point. He hasn’t allowed a run in his last 24 innings of work, and the Mets have won all four of his starts to put a quick 4.88 units of profit up on the board. Pelfrey (4.31 xFIP) has gotten a ridiculous amount of help: 93.6 percent of runners stranded and a puny .249 BABIP. He’s good, but not this good.
Pelfrey’s certainly not better than Roy Halladay, but he has a better record after Philly’s new ace gave up all five runs in a 5-1 loss to the San Francisco Giants (+136). It wasn’t a total disaster for Halladay (2.61 xFIP) with 10 hits and no walks over seven innings. By the way, his 1.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in five starts is almost equal to the 1.8 WAR Pelfrey gave the Mets in 31 starts last year.
Johan Santana vs. Jamie Moyer
Sunday, May 2 - 8:05 p.m. (ET) ESPN
Life is pretty good for Santana (3.96 xFIP) right now. The Mets have won four of his five starts for 1.54 units in earnings, and Santana has allowed a total of seven runs in 30.1 innings of baseball. He appears to have rebounded quite nicely from last year’s elbow injury, posting 8.31 strikeouts per nine innings, his best since joining the Mets in 2008.
Moyer (4.33 xFIP) fell off the pace a little last year and got bumped to the bullpen when Pedro Martinez signed with the Phillies. After four starts in 2010, Moyer has earned exactly one dollar on betting units of $100 with a pair of wins and a pair of losses. Moyer went his standard six innings in each game; Philadelphia’s bullpen is ranked No. 18 in the majors with a 4.08 ERA, while New York’s bullpen is No. 3 with a 2.51 ERA. It should be Philly’s pen getting the lion’s share of the work on Sunday.