Should i blindly hammer MLB Faves?

[MonkeyF0cker]

the gift that just keeps on giving. not only do emotions destroy constructive discussions, but egos as well. keep up the good work.

This isn't a constructive discussion. It's a fukkin moronic one and I don't have much respect for idiots.

[lyon804]

For anybody that is reading this argument here between these two posters.... What we have here is two highly intelligent social misfits getting into a pissing match over a bunch of nothing. How about you two donkeys take your show to the PZ and piss for awhile.

[MonkeyF0cker]

How about you go fuk yourself instead?

[statnerds]

This isn't a constructive discussion. It's a fukkin moronic one and I don't have much respect for idiots.

wow, how many ways can i say it?




have to wait until 1:44 of this clip:

[statnerds]

Get it yet, genius?

so you missed post #34 where i thanked you for proving my point?

cool your jets there roscoe

pump the brakes there slick

[durito]

do the math & see how much you would make hitting 64% at -150, or even -130

pretty much all the money there is.

[MonkeyF0cker]

so you missed post #34 where i thanked you for proving my point?

cool your jets there roscoe

pump the brakes there slick

Umm. What was your point again? That people shouldn't blindly bet all the favorites? Gee. Not that I actually believe you weren't being straight-forward to begin with, but are you shocked that there isn't a parade for your candy ass? You had to save AT LEAST ZERO people from that disaster!! Thank God for YOU!!!

[durito]

between statnerds and bigdaddyDA, this board has really stepped it up in my absence

[statnerds]

You had to save AT LEAST ZERO people from that disaster!! Thank God for YOU!!!

so every poster on this board is a seasoned and accomplished gambler then? not one single poster makes a bad play or a bad decision. you have so raised the knowledge of every poster on this board that not one single poster makes a mistake.

how many posters here on SBR? amazing you guys educated everyone of every pitfall there is in betting. and you did with complete humility. bravo to you sir.

i think it is the humble fashion in which you provide retorts without actually comprehending what was written that draws people to you.

it only took you 5 responses before you figured out what was really going on, and then when you finally took your seat on the short bus, you decided to attack the driver. as if it was my fault your safety-helmet wearing ass kept going to the wrong stop.

classic.

[statnerds]

between statnerds and bigdaddyDA, this board has really stepped it up in my absence

man, this might be your most insightful post i have ever read. i mean other than those countless posts of winners you posted for the board. and the many posts you take to patiently help newcomers to betting out with math concepts. or the constructive criticism you offer when people present ideas that run opposite of accepted beliefs.

oh wait, you do none of those things. just run your mouth and hide behind a keyboard.

stay classy

[Stealinhome]

For the last time yes yes yes!

[floridagolfer]

I don't know what the exact year-by-year stats are, but I think you'd be hard pressed to see a year when the winning percentage of MLB favorites strayed very far from 54-55 percent.

[smartmoney]

blindly hammer underdogs

[TheLock]

All kidding aside, blindly hammering any side is -EV

[juuso]

Blindly betting anything is -EV, but taking faves is no worse than blindly betting dogs, which many beginners seems to be doing. You'll likely stay afloat slightly longer randomly betting faves than dogs.

[CashMoney27]

Keep it going

[INVEGA MAN]

i love betting dogs myself

[TheBet]

I like green eggs and ham

[donjuan]

man, this might be your most insightful post i have ever read. i mean other than those countless posts of winners you posted for the board. and the many posts you take to patiently help newcomers to betting out with math concepts. or the constructive criticism you offer when people present ideas that run opposite of accepted beliefs.

oh wait, you do none of those things. just run your mouth and hide behind a keyboard.

stay classy

Why does every retard act like those who have a clue not only owe them something but also should hold their hand every step of the way?

[donjuan]

Blindly betting anything is -EV, but taking faves is no worse than blindly betting dogs, which many beginners seems to be doing. You'll likely stay afloat slightly longer randomly betting faves than dogs.

You're more likely to be up over small sample sizes from betting dogs than favs. Also you should probably check out how +200 and higher dogs in MLB have performed historically.

[rfr3sh]

You're more likely to be up over small sample sizes from betting dogs than favs. Also you should probably check out how +200 and higher dogs in MLB have performed historically.

i made a thread about this in the HTT but no one replied

[Sam Odom]

Sounds good to me. You need a bookie?

[lakerboy]

You're more likely to be up over small sample sizes from betting dogs than favs. Also you should probably check out how +200 and higher dogs in MLB have performed historically.

classi example is my sorry ass mlb thread- i refuse to bet vig faves and just bet spot dogs and i have made a few bucks.

[rfr3sh]

classi example is my sorry ass mlb thread- i refuse to bet vig faves and just bet spot dogs and i have made a few bucks.

the only thing that scares me is there fukkin bullpens
when Houston put in there Releiver with a 10.0 ERA i was like wtf is coach thinking
surely enough he let the cubs back in, but houston sneaked the win

[ZetaPsi808]

if the favorites keep winning, the books will overcompensate in the next days lines by juicing up the favorites even more

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

62% aint shit when the avg fav is around -130

[2daBank]

so this whole thread was to warn ppl not to blindly bet every fav on the board?

fuk me i got a headache, great job ace you have outdone yourself, what a public servant you are...im sure you have saved countless bankrolls

[THE PROFIT]

Shit like this is why Justin wants to put a common sense combination lock on the think tank!

[stingyrivers]

simple answer to this... NO and you know that by how you posed the question....

there is over 60 years of backtesting to prove this would lose...

the sample size you are using is way to small to mean anything but a short run cluster of wins...

not to mention if there is anything to this at all, it is due to a trend in baseball the past 3 years where home teams are winning at a noticeably higher percentage than ever before...

also, vegas will catch up to it if they havent already in inflating the lines, but I believe they already have with the huge numbers daily on the line this past week...

and finally... the to date record you tallied with a win rate of 62% is maybe break even at best when you factor in the math of the juice you had to lay on the 38% that lost...

playing all favs all year long you would probably have to clear 65% win percentage to show a long term profit when you account for always laying the juice

[juuso]

You're more likely to be up over small sample sizes from betting dogs than favs. Also you should probably check out how +200 and higher dogs in MLB have performed historically.

That might hold true for MLB, but generally, in efficient markets, blindly betting faves over dogs increases chances of staying even or making small profit over small sample games. Of course, blindly betting anything you'll lose your shirt sooner or later.

[PAULYPOKER]

so this whole thread was to warn ppl not to blindly bet every fav on the board? fuk me i got a headache, great job ace you have outdone yourself, what a public servant you are...im sure you have saved countless bankrolls

Shit like this is why Justin wants to put a common sense combination lock on the think tank!

[BigJ]

I think (in theory) that he is partially right. That is if you "chase" those teams. I know, I know how most people feel about "chasing", but there is short term value in it at times. I'm not so sure about teams below -150, but if you take GOOD teams (Phillies, Yanks, etc..) and they lose, then raise your bet to cover your loss and get your additional unit back on the next game and so on and so on...
I'm just saying that a GOOD team isn't going to lose 4 or 5 or 6 games in a row. Yes, Juice will hurt and will make for large bets, but you can make a little short term money here.

[PittsburghPlayer]

Stat, stop talking about it and get down to it. Let us know how it turns out.

[statnerds]

motherfukkin favorites are up over 18 Units this season.

i could begin to explain how amazingly abnormal that is, but it would invite unsavory people into the thread. it would give away data covering 13,000+ MLB games, and who would want to do that?

[statnerds]

+26.39 Units

last time favorites finished up for a season?