SteveAvery33's System Picks (2010)

SteveAvery33 · 04-06-10, 02:14 PM

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

I'll be slowly adding each write-up as I finish it, since I see that some lines for tomorrows games are starting to come out. The number in [] is my no-vig line for the home team. *I apologize for not getting all of these up sooner. I thought I had a bit more time before the lines opened, but apparently I was wrong. I'll try and have everything up around noon each day so people can capitalize as soon as the lines are released. There's still a good bit of value and stale lines laying around out there so grab them while you can.*

COL (A. Cook) @ MIL (D. Davis) [+122.1]: This line could be a lot bigger if the game wasn't in Milwaukee. The Rockies enjoy a nice edge at the plate. I have Colorado's lineup scoring 5.03 RPG compared to the Brewers' 4.76. Couple that with Aaron Cook looking to provide better run prevention than Doug Davis and the Rockies come in as solid favorites. They are 55% to win.

SFN (M. Cain) @ HOU (B. Myers) [+135.2]: Not that it is any surprise, but if the Giants are going to have any success, they are going to have to ride their pitching to do it. Their offense is terrible, although it stands to get a bit of a boost if they ever decide to call up Buster Posey. Luckily, the Giants are playing a team who has an offense that is even more offensive. The only people that Astros deserve to call "hitters" are Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee. These two represent the only two healthy above average starters. Just like COL/MIL, this game would have some heavy chalk if it were in the Bay Area. The Giants win this game 57.5% of the time.

LAN (C. Kershaw) @ PIT (R. Ohlendorf) [+151.1]: This game is pretty obvious. The Pirates offense just isn't where it needs to be, although it does have some quality parts. It just can't compare to the Dodgers. My numbers also have Ohlendorf giving up over one run per nine more than Kershaw. Add it all up and the Dodgers' win pct. is 60.2%.

PHI (C. Hamels) @ WAS (J. Marquis) [+153.6]: Another game, another home dog. Everyone knows about the Phillies offense. Everyone knows Cole Hamels. I don't have much to say on those two fronts. Outside of the Zimmerman/Dunn/Willingham section of the order, the Nats offense is just not very good. Jason Marquis is simply a warm body to fill innings until Strasburg can come up and Jordan Zimmerman is healthy. The Phillies win 60.6% of the time.

CHN (R. Dempster) @ ATL (J. Jurrjens) [-142.5]: A lot of people seem to be sleeping on the Cubs this season but I definitely think they are in the WC mix. They'll need Zambrano to not get bombed like he did on Opening Day, but they definitely have the talent to contend. The Braves get the nod on all fronts in this one. Hitting, pitching and home field. The Braves win pct. is 58.8%.

SLN (A. Wainwright) @ CIN (J. Cueto) [+132.3]: I tend to think that the Cardinals may be a tad overrated this season. Outside of Pujols/Holliday, they really don't have much in the way of offense. Ryan Ludwick had an above average bat, which is great, but they could really be in trouble if one of those 3 guys misses some time. They have the edge in this game, because the Reds are probably a year away from making some real noise. The Cardinals win here 57.0% of the time.

FLO (R. Nolasco) @ NYN (J. Maine) [+123.6]: This incarnation of the Mets offense is really bad. David Wright and Jason Bay are both bats that anchor the middle of an order, but the people that surround them are below average castoffs and patchwork solutions. The absense of Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes make this teams chance of contending slim at best. Their best chance of contending would have been this year, if those two weren't injured. Because they are, this team's best chance this year is playing the role of spoiler. Nolasco and the Marlins chances in this one are 55.3%.

NYA (A. Pettitte) @ BOS (J. Lackey) [-125.0]: Another game between the two biggest and best teams in baseball. The Yankees line-up is incredible. They make a very potent Red Sox line-up look pedestrian. But the Red Sox get it all back with pitching and defense. The Sox defense is absolutely loaded with talent at every position. With pitching, defense and home field, the Red Sox win this one 55.6% of the time.

BAL (J. Guthrie) @ TBA (M.Garza) [-155.9]: I feel bad for the Orioles. They have a solid, young offense along with some quality young pitching on the way up, but they are in the most difficult division in baseball. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Baltimore could be one of the 10 best teams in baseball and finish 4th in their division. If the Rays can get anything for the corpse of Pat Burrell, even just salary relief, they should jump on it. Getting Desmond Jennings up and in the line-up, in any way they can, could very well be a 2 win upgrade over the course of the whole season. In this division, those 2 wins could prove critical. Rays win here at a 60.9% rate.

TOR (B. Tallet) @ TEX (R. Harden) [-162.6]: This could be the beginning of the Rangers lengthy reign as a heavy chalk team. They have a ton of young talent coming and they should be here to stay. They are up against a Blue Jays team who is batting Jose Bautista and his .326 project OBP in the lead-off slot. The Jays are going nowhere, fast, which is a shame for Adam Lind. Toronto should be the worst team in the AL East, and possibly the entire AL, and there really isn't much hope in the future. Rangers win this one 61.9% of the time.

CLE (F. Carmona) @ CHA (J. Peavy) [-151.5]: I'll believe the Fausto Carmona resurgence when I see it. Their offense, however, is pretty good. Significantly better than what the White Sox are sending out. The problem for Cleveland is that they are facing Jake Peavy. Peavy closes the gap between the offenses and the home field widens it for Chicago. They win here 60.2% of the time.

DET (M. Scherzer) @ KCA (L. Hochevar) [+106.5]: Max Scherzer makes his first start in a Tigers uniform against Billy Butler and the Omaha Royals. Oops. Apparently, I got the wrong information and this is infact against the KANSAS CITY Royal. My apologies. Scherzer looks to be about a half run per nine innings better than his counterpart in this one. If Detroit can get crafty at the deadline and make a move to remove one of the terrible bats at the end of their lineup, they really have a shot at the post season. But if they keep trotting out near replacement level players in the 7-8-9 hole, they might have trouble keeping up with the Twins. The Tigers are slight favorites here, winning 51.6% vs. the Royals.

SDN (K. Correia) @ ARI (I. Kennedy) [-162.6]: At first, this line surprised me. After I thought about it for a bit, it made some sense. Ian Kennedy is not far removed from top-100 prospect status. The Padres offense is terrible. Kevin Correia isn't anything special. Once home field is accounted for, the line begins to separate. Since it has taken me a bit to do these write-ups, the line on Arizona is already up 11 cents and in my opinion will continue to climb. Arizona wins 61.9% of the time in this game.

MIN (C. Pavano) @ LAA (E. Santana) [-127.8]: This is a very even matchup. Pavano/Santana both have projections around 4.80 RA, while the offenses are seperated by .05 RPG. The difference here is the home field. Joe Mauer is the only true star out of both offenses, although both teams are filled with a ton of above average talent. You could mix and match from 10 different guys and these teams would largely be the same. The maturation of Brandon Wood and Erick Aybar could be the difference between the Angels playing baseball in October, or golf. Angels win 56.1% of the time.

SEA (R. Rowland-Smith) @ OAK (J. Duchscherer) [-144.0]: The ultimate difference between these teams could end up being luck. They are built the same way, they have essentialy the same offensive projection and they both reside in the AL West. The A's lineup is a bit more balance, while Seattle's has some larger error bars surrounding it. The amount of value these teams get from their "stars" will likely be the difference between playoffs hopes in September and a "seller" label in July. Oakland wins 59% here.

THURSDAY'S PLAYS
COL -105
LAN -132
CHN +150
SLN -125
FLO -117
ARI -121
BAL +175
TEX -158
OAK -110

All of these plays were placed at or around the opening lines at BetJamaica yesterday afternoon. They are all risking 1 unit.

SteveAvery33 · 04-07-10, 08:45 AM

Thursday, April 8, 2010

[54.0%] LAN (C. Billingsley) @ [46.0%] PIT (P. Maholm): I was a little surprised to see this line as close as it is. There are some questions about Billingsley coming off his shaky 2nd half last year. While you wouldn't necessarily think it, Paul Maholm is a league average pitcher. Combine that with home field and you get a line that is closer than it would first appear. My no-vig line is ±117

[34.5%] TOR (R. Romero) @ [65.5%] TEX (C.J. Wilson): There won't be many situations where I am not comfortable with a projection, but this is one of them. With Wilson making his move to the rotation after spending over 4 years in the bullpen, I'd say take a pass on this one. The no-vig line is ±190.

[54.5%] SLN (B. Penny) @ [45.5%] CIN (B. Arroyo): It's really amazing to me that Arroyo has lasted as long as he has in Cincinnati. His projection for 1.3 HR/9 makes having success a difficult task. Penny looks to save a half run compared to Bronson. The major difference is this game is the fact that Pujols puts on a Cardinals jersey. He is the single most valuable player in baseball, and it's not particularly close. The no-vig line is ±120.

[41.0%] DET (D. Willis) @ [59.0%] KCA (B. Bannister): Welcome back, Dontrelle Willis. Unfortunately, the chances are fairly high you won't be back for long. Willis' projection is terrible. Even though the Royals will likely be trotting out a line-up that's 7.8% below average, they are still heavy favorites thanks to the presense of Dontrelle. The no-vig line is ±144.

[56.1%] PHI (K. Kendrick) @ [43.9%] WAS (C. Stammen): This one won't be remember for the pitching. This is likely the worst pitching match-up of all Thursday games. Both guys have a R/9 projection over 5.25. The Philly line-up should carry them to a win. The no-vig line is ±128.

[36.1%] SEA (D. Fister) @ [63.9%] OAK (B. Anderson): Gigantic difference in starting pitching. Brett Anderson could very well be a Cy Young candidate this season, saving more than 1.30 runs compared to Fister. That edge, plus home field, had the A's as a huge favorite. The no-vig line is ±177.

[51.4%] FLO (N. Robertson) @ [48.6%] NYN (J. Niese): There is a report that Jose Reyes could re-join the team this weekend. That couldn't be better news for the Mets. The pitching is fairly even here, but there is a large divide in the hitting between these two teams. The no-vig line is ±106.

[43.7%] BAL (B. Matusz) @ [56.3%] TBA (J. Niemann): If you are a fan of young talent, this is the game to watch. These two teams are flush with young superstars. Adam Jones, Wieters, Longoria, Upton, Matusz...the list goes on. This is the game to see on Thursday. The no-vig line is ±129.

[38.5%] CHN (R. Wells) @ [61.5%] ATL (T. Hanson): This is a big game for the future of the Braves. The future ace of the staff and the future slugger are both on display. The gap between these two teams is pretty large. A half run edge in pitching, a small edge in the field and at the plate, plus home field has the Braves as solid favorites. The no-vig line is ±160.

[45.3%] CLE (J. Masterson) @ [54.7%] CHA (G. Floyd): This is a surprisingly solid match-up. Both starting pitchers are solid, the line-ups are average to above average. Should be an excellent game to watch. The no-vig line is ±121.

[45.1%] MIN (K. Slowey) @ [54.9%] LAA (J. Pineiro): The line-ups and pitching are basically a wash, but the way the pitching gets there is interesting. Pineiro does it by pitching to contact and getting tons of groundballs. Slowey misses some bats and gives up a bunch of home runs, but he doesn't hurt himself with walks. These two teams are pretty even and it should be another great game. The no-vig line is ±122.

SteveAvery33 · 04-07-10, 02:47 PM

Plays: Thursday, April 8, 2010

Lines are out at BetJamaica right now and this is what I am on for tomorrow:

PIT +140
SLN -110
TEX -142
KCA -107
OAK -156
BAL +178

They are all risking one unit.

daneblazer · 04-08-10, 08:47 AM

[36.1%] SEA (D. Fister) @ [63.9%] OAK (B. Anderson): Gigantic difference in starting pitching. Brett Anderson could very well be a Cy Young candidate this season, saving more than 1.30 runs compared to Fister. That edge, plus home field, had the A's as a huge favorite. The no-vig line is ±177.

Fister? barely knew her

watertight · 04-08-10, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by daneblazer

Fister? barely knew her

SteveAvery33 · 04-08-10, 10:45 AM

Friday, April 8, 2010

Average day yesterday. Went 4-5 with the picks, down 1.6 units. Those picks beat the no-vig closing lines at Pinnacle by an average of 6 cents per game. That could have been way bigger had I not taken the Orioles so early, as that line ended up closing 36 cents higher than it opened. Something to keep an eye on.

[34.7%] SDN (C. Richard) @ [65.3%] COL (J. De La Rosa): The divide between these two teams on offense is massive. The Rockies score almost a run more per game than the Pads. That would normally be all they need, but they also enjoy the pitching, defense and home field edge. Big time chalk. The no-vig line is ±188.

[46.2%] CLE (D. Huff) @ [53.8%] DET (R. Porcello): My projections are down on Rick Porcello so I don't think this line will be anywhere near what I have. Until he starts missing more bats, I'm not sure he will have the success that people think he is capable of. The no-vig line is ±116.

[55.1%] ATL (T. Hudson) @ [44.9%] SFN (J. Sanchez): The success of the Braves this year has a lot to do with how Tim Hudson performs. If his stuff is near his pre-surgery stuff, the Braves should be in the thick of the playoff hunt. Sanchez is a good young pitcher, but he can't make up for their putrid offense. The no-vig line is ±123.

[40.9%] TOR (B. Morrow) @ [59.1%] BAL (B. Bergesen): It will be interesting to see how Brandon Morrow does without being jerked between starting and the bullpen. This probably won't be the best game to showcase himself, as he should be a decent underdog. The no-vig line is ±144.

[49.6%] LAN (H. Kuroda) @ [50.4%] FLO (A. Sanchez): If you are a fan of offense, you should probably tune in here, as both offenses are solid and the pitching isn't. This game is a coinflip. The no-vig line is ±102.

[55.8%] NYA (J. Vazquez) @ [44.2%] TBA (D. Price): This should be a great game. The juggernaut Yankees with Javier Vazquez back for his second tour of duty against the youngster Rays and prized pitching prospect David Price. This should be an exciting series. The no-vig line is ±126.

[47.3%] WAS (G. Mock) @ [52.7%] NYN (M. Pelfrey): Most people wouldn't say it, but this game is between two even teams. The offenses are separated by .03 runs. Mock's RA is 5.05, Pelfrey's 5.04. Does this mean the Nats are better or the Mets are bad? I'll take the latter. The no-vig line is ±111.

[32.6%] SEA (J. Vargas) @ [67.4%] TEX (C. Lewis): Here's another game where I'm not sure what to make of the projection. Colby Lewis is making his return to the bigs and based on his translations, looks to be a frontline starter. I'm skeptical right now. The no-vig line is ±207.

[45.4%] CHN (C. Silva) @ [54.6%] CIN (H. Bailey): The fact that Carlos Silva is pitching for the Cubs is a testement to how messed up this organization is. If Homer Bailey can keep the ball in the park, the Reds shouldn't have a problem. The no-vig line is ±120.

[52.7%] BOS (T. Wakefield) @ [47.3%] KCA (K. Davies): Even though the Red Sox are giving up some runs via pitching and home field, they gain them back by the truckload from hitting and defense. This defense saves .25 runs per game, not to mention the top of the lineup is stacked. The no-vig line is ±111.

[59.5%] PHI (J.A. Happ) @ [40.5%] HOU (B. Norris): Ed Wade will be drooling at all of the Phillies players he can scout for next offseason. The Astros offense is projected for less than 4 runs per game, which is over a run less than the Phillies. Bud Norris is a servicable guy in the rotation, but he is in trouble in this one. The no-vig line is ±147.

[43.7%] MIN (F. Liriano) @ [56.3%] CHA (J. Danks): Very important game in the AL Central. These two teams, with these starting pitchers, project as 89 win teams. It's the coinflip games like this that could ultimately decide this divisional race. The no-vig line is ±129.

[52.8%] SLN (K. Lohse) @ [47.2%] MIL (D. Bush): If you like young talent on the hitting side of the equation, this is a good game to watch. Plus, there's some guy named Pujols. The no-vig line is ±112.

[42.9%] OAK (G. Gonzalez) @ [57.1%] LAA (M. Palmer): Much like the MIN/CHA game, only with less talent, this is a pretty even matchup if you remove the HFA. The Angels get their with a solid offense a little else. The A's have a wild card on the mound with an excellent defensive team and no offense. The no-vig line is ±133.

[44.8%] PIT (C. Morton) @ [55.2%] ARI (R. Lopez): I'm running out of energy to do any more write-ups and these teams are interesting enough. No-vig line is ±123.