LB thread for MLB plays 2010

**King Mayan** · 10-07-10, 03:37 AM

**Gee** · 10-07-10, 03:40 AM

LB = +EV. Enough said.

Why is this a pissing contest all of a sudden?

**JMobile** · 10-07-10, 03:42 AM

I'm playing the Rays again with Shields on the mound. If they let me down again, those fvcking Rays are gonna shat all over my Rays wins the Series play. shit!

Good luck to you LB. I was 2-2 on my plays because I went all out on the Rays TT Over 4.

**memo99** · 10-07-10, 04:41 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

I think books are trying hard to disguise SF win tomorrow. They arent moving the line much with more action on SF. I dont wanna bet much on this series because of my series bet on SF so im gonna keep an eye on the RL movement. Giants really looked good the last month and it would be hard not to unload on Timmy . He has been solid for the last 6 starts. Lowe has beaten cupcake teams in his good run to close off the season. I see that everyone is abandoning the Rays already. They still have a good team and Shields is a good pitcher when he is on and at home.

how bout the under LB i saw that S.F. has only givin up more than 3 runs 5 times in the last 31 games

**BigMama** · 10-07-10, 04:52 AM

Great day for all...good luck

**kmarinouofm** · 10-07-10, 05:50 AM

Originally posted by memo99

how bout the under LB i saw that S.F. has only givin up more than 3 runs 5 times in the last 31 games

over is the play man.. everyone is going to take the under in this game.. but 6.5 is really doable even with these pitchers and bullpens..

atlanta and bobby cox know how important this game is and he has some good vets up against a lot of guys who have never been there

over is mad juiced and there are giving away the farm right now on the under.. doesn't make sense..

I am not going to try to watch this game and sweat out a 6 or smaller

over

**Tommy_de1st** · 10-07-10, 06:37 AM

NY Sports Guy, why don't you open your own thread with your own picks and run it all over a year. When you are half as successfull as LakerBoy you'll get people respect. No reason to come here and talk rubbish

**DaAce** · 10-07-10, 06:56 AM

Originally posted by memo99

how bout the under LB i saw that S.F. has only givin up more than 3 runs 5 times in the last 31 games

65% on the under... the books baiting people on this on

**superjeff24** · 10-07-10, 07:19 AM

Ny square guy you are a joke. You'll be all over Miami -28s all NBA season like you're sharp as hell stop trolling

**KJ90** · 10-07-10, 07:26 AM

over is the play guys? sf/atl

**KJ90** · 10-07-10, 07:33 AM

lb ignore this guy...dont worry about his stupid contest..just focus on making that paper.

**Smogs** · 10-07-10, 07:39 AM

Is the SF game one of those where everyone thinks they are clever to take the under, when really it's an obvious over with the public being outsmarted by themselves - who despise not being sharp, so try and be sharp for once. And it ends 11-7 SF??

That made no sense i'm sure but under backers may be double guessing themselves

**jalein** · 10-07-10, 08:32 AM

Good job last night on the Yankees LB! Thanks for all that you do.

**kdavis** · 10-07-10, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210

NCAA Week 6: (a) NC State (-10) to cover vs. BC Eagles

(b) Under 42.5 total points in LSU vs. Florida

(c) Univ. South Florida (-8) to cover vs. Syracuse Orangemen

MLB: (d) Rangers-D-Rays (Game 2) OVER 8.5 total runs

NFL Week 5: (e) Ravens (-6.5) to cover vs. Broncos

(f) Lions-Rams OVER 42.5 total points

(g) Packers (-2.5) to cover at Redskins

(h) Falcons (-3) to cover at Browns

(i) Oakland (+7) vs San Diego Chargers

NHL: (j) Pens ML to beat Flyers opening night

These are my 10 bets already put down. Let's see what you or ya posse got. Tally, make fun of...do whatever you want to do. But now you'll see my capping skills mutha effas.

Which book do you work for?

**lakerboy** · 10-07-10, 10:22 AM

Rays/Rangers under 8 +108 (2x)

Giants / Braves over 6.5 -118 (2x)

Giants TT over 3.5 -110 (2x)

Rays TT over 4 -115 (1x)

Yanks / Twins under 9 -120 (3x)

Braves TT under 3-110 (2x)

Rays ML -120 (2x)

**Mikail** · 10-07-10, 10:28 AM

Good luck today LB

**ROFLcopter** · 10-07-10, 10:35 AM

Best of luck

**martinmobley** · 10-07-10, 10:40 AM

You guys are funny when you refer to "the public"... don't you think that the average gambler is checking websites like this or getting referred from a buddy who's doing his "research" on sbr or whatever... sometimes when you go against "the public" you're the one actually helping the books even out their losses... not always doing yourself a favor... lb... yesterday you said that the phillies "should win" however you bet against them... twice actually. would've been a better no play at all... just saying.. you have good instincts.. i'd follow them instead of over thinking.

**msj0001** · 10-07-10, 10:41 AM

with you on the Rays LB

...took them yesterday too, if I switched to the Rangers today and the rays tied the series i'd be pissed

**paciophobia** · 10-07-10, 10:51 AM

LB.

**colts** · 10-07-10, 11:04 AM

Good Morning All. Good luck to us today.

**colts** · 10-07-10, 11:08 AM

Originally posted by menuu6199

some1 stake me 4 points for the poker tourny tommorow? Thanks much appreciated

I loaned you the 4pts.

**Brocc** · 10-07-10, 11:15 AM

Nice hit on NYY, LB

Looking good on todays selections

**NYSportsGuy210** · 10-07-10, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by Tommy_de1st

NY Sports Guy, why don't you open your own thread with your own picks and run it all over a year. When you are half as successfull as LakerBoy you'll get people respect. No reason to come here and talk rubbish

Don't have time because I'm not on all the time. Also because I find it to be a tad bit narcissitic and considering everyone else does it (whether they are a good capper or not) makes it nothing special.
I rather just write individual posts when I have the time and want to share with the community. And don't accuse me of "bashing" anyone.....if you are foolish enough to bet against the best pitcher in baseball with no justifiable reason how can you expect to get praise?

Likewise, on the flip side, if you have GOOD REASONING and make really good calls on sharp plays I will commend you as well. Don't see why you are all angry in here.

**$Burm$** · 10-07-10, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210

Don't have time because I'm not on all the time. Also because I find it to be a tad bit narcissitic and considering everyone else does it (whether they are a good capper or not) makes it nothing special.
I rather just write individual posts when I have the time and want to share with the community. And don't accuse me of "bashing" anyone.....if you are foolish enough to bet against the best pitcher in baseball with no justifiable reason how can you expect to get praise?

Likewise, on the flip side, if you have GOOD REASONING and make really good calls on sharp plays I will commend you as well. Don't see why you are all angry in here.

Your being annoying, you only bet sbr points, and your posts are in blue....need I say more.

**WIZARDOFBEANTOWN** · 10-07-10, 12:00 PM

good luck lb

**phillydon215** · 10-07-10, 12:15 PM

Paco have the over u have the under what's going on!!

**No coincidences** · 10-07-10, 12:16 PM

SF ML starting to creep up, LB.

At -159 now.

**latinrus** · 10-07-10, 12:16 PM

Hm one more time u and Paco on the opposite sides!
I think I'll take the Over, but still don't know!
But
BOL LB

**azplaya** · 10-07-10, 12:24 PM

Just curious about something lb...if we are on the under 8 and the Rays tt over 4...why are we not on Rangers ft under 4? Or even the rl? Based on your picks we're looking for a 5-0 or 5-1 type win by TB, seems like the rl at +169 would have some value?

**paco** · 10-07-10, 12:26 PM

Lb, u expecting Rays do all the scoring?

**sapidoc** · 10-07-10, 12:27 PM

Originally posted by martinmobley

You guys are funny when you refer to "the public"... don't you think that the average gambler is checking websites like this or getting referred from a buddy who's doing his "research" on sbr or whatever... sometimes when you go against "the public" you're the one actually helping the books even out their losses... not always doing yourself a favor... lb... yesterday you said that the phillies "should win" however you bet against them... twice actually. would've been a better no play at all... just saying.. you have good instincts.. i'd follow them instead of over thinking.

You are right, but if you look at places like covers you can see the % on each side of a bet. I think public just means the majority %. Keep in mind there are also other forces at work other than just the public (usually square) and the sharps. There are the arb guys that bet those dogs when they get high enough, simply because they can arb it with a book that is a little slow to update their lines. Thus, causing the fast updating book to slow their own lines due to the dog money coming in. But this is perhaps a mute point compared to what lb did....

LB said they "should win" and bet against them because of value in the odds. To exaggerate the point, lets say PHI line was -9000 / +8000 ... would you take the PHI at -9000 since they should win? Well you would say no, because its very easy to see that -9000 will lose you money long term. Should you just pass then? Hell no! +8000 is like a gift! A pass would be a huge mistake. What about -8000 / +7000 or -2000 / +1800..... all of these crazy lines and PHI wouldn't have a dime on them. But at -200 / +180 (I forget the exact PHI lines, so im just going to use +200/-180 for that game), it is harder to see that value. LB sees that value. He takes that +180 because he knows long term that is a winning bet. It is way harder to see value in the +180/-200 line.. it seems soooo easy to lay your 2K down and win 1K on that -200 lock you call PHI. But -EV is -EV, and just like it would be a mistake to pass up a +8000 dog line, it would be a mistake for LB to pass up a +180 line in that case for the same reason.

**Wilforth** · 10-07-10, 12:44 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Rays ML -120 (2x)

The Rays game will be decided by more than 1 run! Just FYI.

**martinmobley** · 10-07-10, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by sapidoc

You are right, but if you look at places like covers you can see the % on each side of a bet. I think public just means the majority %. Keep in mind there are also other forces at work other than just the public (usually square) and the sharps. There are the arb guys that bet those dogs when they get high enough, simply because they can arb it with a book that is a little slow to update their lines. Thus, causing the fast updating book to slow their own lines due to the dog money coming in. But this is perhaps a mute point compared to what lb did....

LB said they "should win" and bet against them because of value in the odds. To exaggerate the point, lets say PHI line was -9000 / +8000 ... would you take the PHI at -9000 since they should win? Well you would say no, because its very easy to see that -9000 will lose you money long term. Should you just pass then? Hell no! +8000 is like a gift! A pass would be a huge mistake. What about -8000 / +7000 or -2000 / +1800..... all of these crazy lines and PHI wouldn't have a dime on them. But at -200 / +180 (I forget the exact PHI lines, so im just going to use +200/-180 for that game), it is harder to see that value. LB sees that value. He takes that +180 because he knows long term that is a winning bet. It is way harder to see value in the +180/-200 line.. it seems soooo easy to lay your 2K down and win 1K on that -200 lock you call PHI. But -EV is -EV, and just like it would be a mistake to pass up a +8000 dog line, it would be a mistake for LB to pass up a +180 line in that case for the same reason.

I totally understand what you're saying and am acutely aware of value / long term betting. I guess my point is that when someone admits that they don't necessarily have an exact system and it is a game plan that is somewhat fueled by instinct... they should follow rules of common sense... this is why we research games and try to make intelligent bets... i don't think it is always smart to just go against the public for value sake.
I think books know that they're screwed on some bets... they know the public is going to bet one way and they have no choice but to set the lines within a certain paramater and they rely on the "overthinkers and value bettors" to even things out. When everything in your head is telling you not to bet on something.. don't do it... no bet is better than a loss.

**sapidoc** · 10-07-10, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by martinmobley

I totally understand what you're saying and am acutely aware of value / long term betting. I guess my point is that when someone admits that they don't necessarily have an exact system and it is a game plan that is somewhat fueled by instinct... they should follow rules of common sense... this is why we research games and try to make intelligent bets... i don't think it is always smart to just go against the public for value sake. I think books know that they're screwed on some bets... they know the public is going to bet one way and they have no choice but to set the lines within a certain paramater and they rely on the "overthinkers and value bettors" to even things out. When everything in your head is telling you not to bet on something.. don't do it... no bet is better than a loss.

That is a valid point. But I don't think they rely so much on value betters to even their books. If the public takes -220 today, they'll have no problem taking -220 tomorrow and -220 the next day. Unless they sweep all three days the books are going to make some coin.

Originally posted by martinmobley

i don't think it is always smart to just go against the public for value sake.

It's more going for value for value's sake than it is anything to do with the public. The public just happens to provide value to dog lines most of the time.

This is the key question: Would you take the reds yesterday for +2000 if the public was pounding PHI at -3000 or pass on all bets?