My Sports

[Totolover1409]

This is like the biggest decision of my life... To take the Pats or to stay away....

[paco]

Oh no you di'int paco.....quit tip toe-ing around the question.

Everything points to Miami. Quit living in the past. Or convice me to not play the fins.

I'm Not tip toeing anything .I'm not gonna bold and put in pretty colors why I love the pats. It's my play, and I have my reasons.

[sneakerhead]

This is like the biggest decision of my life... To take the Pats or to stay away....

[jpot34]

The Bills moved the ball at will on NE at home. I could see Ricky and Ronnie running all over the place.

Very possible. I'm more of a side capper. Really no clue on the o/u. The # does seem high to me which means the over will probably cash.

[No coincidences]

Oh no you di'int paco.....quit tip toe-ing around the question.

Everything points to Miami. Quit living in the past. Or convice me to not play the fins.

Ralph, you know I'm all about the home dogs in the NFL, buying low, fading the public, etc. But there are two teams I don't like to fvck with: Indianapolis and New England. They like to buck those trends.

Sometimes it works -- like today with the Colts -- but more often than not, those two teams burn you if you fade them.

I wouldn't say "everything points to Miami." Line movement wise it does -- so far. But the Pats are the superior team, and if they bring their A game, paco's a lot of Lincolns richer.

[jpot34]

I'm Not tip toeing anything .I'm not gonna bold and put in pretty colors why I love the pats. It's my play, and I have my reasons.

Pac, can you tell me just one of your reasons? No sarcasm in this question.

[shaggy3000]

60456161-110/4/10 1:04am$12.00$10.00Pending10/4/10 4:50am International Golf 146 Ian Poulter -120* vs Matt Kuchar

60456161-210/4/10 1:04am$5.00$5.70Pending10/4/10 6:05am International Golf 158 Padraig Harrington +114* vs Zach Johnson

60456161-310/4/10 1:04am$10.40$10.00Pending10/4/10 4:05am Reduced Golf 138 Lee Westwood -½ -104 vs Steve Stricker

there you go. im 4-0 i think ill go at worse 2-1 but really feel a 3-0 morning

[jackmyhoggoff]

POST-77530# For the love of $$$ no other reason !!

[JMobile]

60456161-110/4/10 1:04am$12.00$10.00Pending10/4/10 4:50am International Golf 146 Ian Poulter -120* vs Matt Kuchar

60456161-210/4/10 1:04am$5.00$5.70Pending10/4/10 6:05am International Golf 158 Padraig Harrington +114* vs Zach Johnson

Let me know how these two end up when the game is over.

[sportfan]

Tonight' game pissed me off, was gonna head to the casino to get some money back

[stuntin909]

i'd like to give a pick out for you guys this weekend for MLS. I'm a big time follower of the league and was shocked to see the Galaxy ML at +135 this weekend "at" Chivas USA for various reasons.

1. Galaxy OWNS Chivas USA all time. The Galaxy are 11-3-5 all-time against Chivas USA, including 4-1-3 when playing as the road team. 3 of the Galaxy losses were in what I call our "dark years" in which we lost to everyone and had a very shitty team. Of the 6 years of history between both clubs, Galaxy has taken 5 of the 6 "series" (for you baseball fans out there)

2. Chivas is in a complete downfall. They lost to Philly (expansion team) 3-0 last week and are a loss or two away from being eliminated from playoffs. They are last in the Western Conference with 25 pts while Galaxy is looking for their 50th pt this weekend and are in first of the ENTIRE LEAGUE. Galaxy has +18 Goal Differential for season, Chivas -4.

3. While Galaxy is "away" this game, they are really at home and play well at the HDC. Expect more Galaxy fans in the house Sunday.

4. Galaxy playing to stay in 1st and keep homefield advantage throughout playoffs. Perfect way to bounce back from the NY loss is to beat their rival.

5. Galaxy fans, players, and media HATE the Chivas. Will embarrass em at all costs. If Galaxy get ahead early expect a very lopsided game.

6. Gut intuition. I'll be at the game, sometimes I just "feel" things lol.

I'm playing this ML Sunday. Just thought i'd give you all something to consider as I've made alot of $ with paco and others in this thread. Tail at your own risk. Any questions feel free to ask. Peace

hope some of you listened to me. line ended up at even money. cha ching!

[sapidoc]

update: going all out on the SCS, (50 pennys) on Patriots pk.

paco, I've personally tailored my betting amounts (1x, 10x, etc.) to try and match what % (1x, 10x) is of your BR. Obviously I have no real idea what your gambling BR is, but I've been following Kelly pretty strictly to make sure I'm +EV and still optimal. I assume 55% chance of winning all bets, pretty consistent with your record, and been doing well keeping this in check. TBH I can't make a 50 unit bet without going outside Kelly, which either means (1) This bet goes against the Kelly criterion for optimal growth, or (2) 1x is far less than 1% of your BR by at least 10 fold. I'm at a loss of what to do here as I usually like to follow your big plays exactly. I personally might have to just make this 20x for myself and stay Kelly optimal.

For those that are thinking of following here; you would need about $100,000 BR to make this bet and still be Kelly optimal, or about $200,000 if you use half-Kelly.

[sneakerhead]

you would need about $100,000 BR to make this bet and still be Kelly optimal, or about $200,000 if you use half-Kelly.

Bro, what is Kelly?
Edit: NVM, I googled it and found out what you were talking about, I will look into it further. Thanks

[bornselling]

let's go get that paper Paco

[jpot34]

$ mgt. system.

[sapidoc]

Bro, what is Kelly? Edit: NVM, I googled it and found out what you were talking about, I will look into it further. Thanks

Here's a link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

The jist of it is this: let's say you have an edge on a gamble. Like you win 55% of your bets for example. Well then long term you should be a winner, right? Well what if you went all-in every bet? Well, then you would lose because 45% of the time you lose. Ok, well what if you put 50% of your BR into every bet? Well then you lose a few in a row and your BR is gone quickly also.

Kelly tells you how much $ (what % of your BR) you should bet on a game given your perceived edge (% chance of winning), the odds you are getting (-110, +120, etc) and how large your BR is. It optimizes your profits, with a near 0% chance of going broke. Give it a read. Good stuff.

EDIT: Just saw your edit. I'll leave this up for others interested anyway.

[Donkwin47]

Wow, good luck dude.

[jpot34]

Here's a link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

The jist of it is this: let's say you have an edge on a gamble. Like you win 55% of your bets for example. Well then long term you should be a winner, right? Well what if you went all-in every bet? Well, then you would lose because 45% of the time you lose. Ok, well what if you put 50% of your BR into every bet? Well then you lose a few in a row and your BR is gone quickly also.

Kelly tells you how much $ (what % of your BR) you should bet on a game given your perceived edge (% chance of winning), the odds you are getting (-110, +120, etc) and how large your BR is. It optimizes your profits, with a near 0% chance of going broke. Give it a read. Good stuff.

EDIT: Just saw your edit. I'll leave this up for others interested anyway.

The tricky part is calculating your % chance of winning.

[msj0001]

I'd suck my cock......if I could

Really? I think any pleasure that comes from getting a blowjob would be cancelled out by the fact you have a dick in your mouth...anyways I'm on the Brady and the Pats too

[sapidoc]

The tricky part is calculating your % chance of winning.

Of course, but someone kindly back-calculated paco's plays way back in this thread. iirc it was something around 55% and so I think using 55% is accurate enough for me. I'm using half-kelly anyway, so I'm on the conservative side of that estimate.

[sportfan]

Here's a link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

The jist of it is this: let's say you have an edge on a gamble. Like you win 55% of your bets for example. Well then long term you should be a winner, right? Well what if you went all-in every bet? Well, then you would lose because 45% of the time you lose. Ok, well what if you put 50% of your BR into every bet? Well then you lose a few in a row and your BR is gone quickly also.

Kelly tells you how much $ (what % of your BR) you should bet on a game given your perceived edge (% chance of winning), the odds you are getting (-110, +120, etc) and how large your BR is. It optimizes your profits, with a near 0% chance of going broke. Give it a read. Good stuff.

EDIT: Just saw your edit. I'll leave this up for others interested anyway.

Money management is pretty much the key

[sneakerhead]

Here's a link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion The jist of it is this: let's say you have an edge on a gamble. Like you win 55% of your bets for example. Well then long term you should be a winner, right? Well what if you went all-in every bet? Well, then you would lose because 45% of the time you lose. Ok, well what if you put 50% of your BR into every bet? Well then you lose a few in a row and your BR is gone quickly also. Kelly tells you how much $ (what % of your BR) you should bet on a game given your perceived edge (% chance of winning), the odds you are getting (-110, +120, etc) and how large your BR is. It optimizes your profits, with a near 0% chance of going broke. Give it a read. Good stuff. EDIT: Just saw your edit. I'll leave this up for others interested anyway.

I read the whole thing, I wanted to clear it up so let me know if I am right or correct me if I am wrong.
Right now you can get the Patriots pk at +100(5dimes), like jpot mentioned, the probability of calculating winning seems tricky but lets just use 55%. After calculating, I should only put .5% of my BR on this. Like you said my BR will never reach zero this way but it would hardly grow though.
Let me ask you this, how would you incorporate this while betting with units or following paco etc.
Thanks

[sapidoc]

I read the whole thing, I wanted to clear it up so let me know if I am right or correct me if I am wrong. Right now you can get the Patriots pk at +100(5dimes), like jpot mentioned, the probability of calculating winning seems tricky but lets just use 55%. After calculating, I should only put .5% of my BR on this. Like you said my BR will never reach zero this way but it would hardly grow though. Let me ask you this, how would you incorporate this while betting with units or following paco etc. Thanks

With 55% and +100, you should actually be getting something like 10% for Kelly and 5% for half-Kelly. This is all you really need to know as far as Kelly and how much you should bet.

As far as following paco and his units this is where it gets trickier. Obviously paco posts units based on strength of the play he is making 1x, 5x, 10x $C$'s etc. So the key is making sure his MAX unit bet doesn't exceed your Kelly bet. I did this off of 20x (I think there was a 20x $C$ way back and that's what I based it off of) and have been doing fine. But now that's he's gone 50x I can't make this bet properly given my BR and Kelly.

Given his standard sized bets posted here and then seeing this 50x bet its actually impossible for paco to be following Kelly himself, so I'd suggest you just do what you are comfortable with. If you want to follow Kelly, you either have to ignore the 50x and just make it 20x instead (or whatever you decide is paco's MAX bet that you will cap on your bets). Or you can make 50x your new Kelly max. (of course this will make all the 1x plays ridiculously small, so you might not want to do this).

[Double Bogey]

Good luck Paco, tailing. Just not 50 pennies

[sneakerhead]

With 55% and +100, you should actually be getting something like 10% for Kelly and 5% for half-Kelly. This is all you really need to know as far as Kelly and how much you should bet. As far as following paco and his units this is where it gets trickier. Obviously paco posts units based on strength of the play he is making 1x, 5x, 10x $C$'s etc. So the key is making sure his MAX unit bet doesn't exceed your Kelly bet. I did this off of 20x (I think there was a 20x $C$ way back and that's what I based it off of) and have been doing fine. But now that's he's gone 50x I can't make this bet properly given my BR and Kelly. Given his standard sized bets posted here and then seeing this 50x bet its actually impossible for paco to be following Kelly himself, so I'd suggest you just do what you are comfortable with. If you want to follow Kelly, you either have to ignore the 50x and just make it 20x instead (or whatever you decide is paco's MAX bet that you will cap on your bets). Or you can make 50x your new Kelly max. (of course this will make all the 1x plays ridiculously small, so you might not want to do this).

Gets much clearer, I think SCS defies the rules of Kelly so I might ignore it for now but I will definitely be using it in the near future. Thanks a lot bro.

[Lakers714]

Good luck on the Pats Paco. I'm on them as well.

[sapidoc]

Gets much clearer, I think SCS defies the rules of Kelly so I might ignore it for now but I will definitely be using it in the near future. Thanks a lot bro.

Just in case my last post wasn't 100% clear... I'm treating 10x as my half-Kelly Max bet. So a 10x is half-Kelly for me exactly, I wouldn't go broke hitting 55% on 10x $C$ bets. A 20x bet Just means I'm using Kelly instead of half-kelly as the betting amount (again, still not going broke hitting 55%), but not as conservative as my half-kelly. 1x is exactly 10% of what my half-kelly is. So a 1x Bet I just figure out my standard half-Kelly (10x bet) and do 1/10th of that.

Hope that makes sense. Time to get some sleep here!

[extenzeuser]

becuz the twins are so bad at yankee stadium.....they have a good chance in a 5 game series having home field advantage....if they can get past that series....they win the world series mark my words

[paste_me]

those of you using the kelly system, what do you think of this? http://www.professionalgambler.com/debunking.html

[sportfan]

those of you using the kelly system, what do you think of this? http://www.professionalgambler.com/debunking.html

thats some funny shit

[Styles]

Giants game and under hit too bad I only had 5 points on it and no cash..

[Meyhem]

hope some of you listened to me. line ended up at even money. cha ching!

yea mate sure did, was going to find this post and bump it


thanks for the play

[sportfan]

Giants game and under hit too bad I only had 5 points on it and no cash..

bummer , I took the over ..fvckme

[Tommy_de1st]

Wow, 50x $C$

Damn, this chick must have done something special for you

[paciophobia]

50x. 50 damn x. BOL bud.