Baltimore ML (-120): Guthrie of course was cruising early in the year, and then faltered when he got injured and probably fatigued. But he seems like he is healthy again, and is looking forward to getting a start in before the year ends. he may well have a shutdown start here against whatever so-so lineup Toronto sends out, and if that happens, Baltimore will very likely come out with a win.
Boston RL (-125), Over 9 (-120): Boston should have a pretty significant pitching and lineup edge in this one, and as such both the RL and the over have value IMO. The RL is not an avoidance of the huge fave ML, it has added value due to volatility and bullpen strength.
Philly ML (+125): Smoltz is strong and steady, but this is a value play. Kendrick has been effective this year, and could easily keep Philly in the game. If he does, Philly should have an edge at home against the Atlanta bullpen.
St. Louis ML (+195): The Mets have a big edge in this game, but not as big as this line is saying, IMO. Piniero has been decent recently, and St. Louis has at least part of a lively lineup, and they could easily stay competitive in this one until the end.
KC ML (+110): Buckner probably has more of an upside at this point than Broadway, and KC is pretty evenly matched with the Sox, so I see modest but pretty clear value with KC as a dog.
Seattle ML (+115), Under 10 (-115): Baek has had success in the majors before, and his struggles this year were probably mostly due to injury troubles. This is a good spot for him, a year-end game with low interest, and he will likely be able to establish himself a bit with a strong start here. Byrd has always been great at Petco, but I see a low-run Seattle win as the most likely outcome.
Boston RL (-125), Over 9 (-120): Boston should have a pretty significant pitching and lineup edge in this one, and as such both the RL and the over have value IMO. The RL is not an avoidance of the huge fave ML, it has added value due to volatility and bullpen strength.
Philly ML (+125): Smoltz is strong and steady, but this is a value play. Kendrick has been effective this year, and could easily keep Philly in the game. If he does, Philly should have an edge at home against the Atlanta bullpen.
St. Louis ML (+195): The Mets have a big edge in this game, but not as big as this line is saying, IMO. Piniero has been decent recently, and St. Louis has at least part of a lively lineup, and they could easily stay competitive in this one until the end.
KC ML (+110): Buckner probably has more of an upside at this point than Broadway, and KC is pretty evenly matched with the Sox, so I see modest but pretty clear value with KC as a dog.
Seattle ML (+115), Under 10 (-115): Baek has had success in the majors before, and his struggles this year were probably mostly due to injury troubles. This is a good spot for him, a year-end game with low interest, and he will likely be able to establish himself a bit with a strong start here. Byrd has always been great at Petco, but I see a low-run Seattle win as the most likely outcome.
