Philadephia Phillies playing for third NL flag
Very few teams enter a major league campaign with rosters talented enough to threaten the 100-win mark. The Philadelphia Phillies are one of the few heading into the coming season.
It's been a long time, a really long time since a team won three consecutive NL pennants. The added postseason levels are the biggest reason whey it's much tougher now than when the Cardinals did it from 1942-44.
The Phillies have a team that can do it, though the easy money is to bet that doesn't happen.
The addition of Roy Halladay at the top of the rotation was the big news in the offseason. But he won't be the reason why this Phillies team might ultimately finish in the mid-90s or better in the win column during the regular season. The two most critical factors into Philadelphia's regular season campaign: Keeping the studs in the lineup all season and the collection of arms out of the pen that will pitch about 35 percent or more of the innings.
Should the Phils falter, the Braves have a team to check into the division's penthouse. They also have a team that can go terribly wrong if a few big pieces don't fall into place.
Then you have the volatile duo of Florida and New York, plus the red-headed stepchild of the family in DC. And we all know that it's never wise to put your money and your good faith in anything about Washington DC.
Or is it?
NOTE: Win totals and prices shown below were current at The Greek.com as of Sunday, Mar.14, 1 p.m. (ET)
Atlanta 86½ (Over +105 / Under -125)
Avg. wins: 85.2 (High-90, Low-81)
Pick: I'm sticking to my guns from throughout the winter in predicting the Braves will win 86-89 games and be a playoff team. Still, there are several reasons to like the 'under' here that came through in the simulation runs. Getting productive seasons out of both Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus may be less important now that all signs point to the team looking as if it can count on wunderkind Jason Heyward.
Billy Wagner and Tim Hudson will be the most important players on this team now, Wagner especially. In defiance of the sim stats, I'm going 'over' here.
Florida 81½ (+115/-135)
Avg. Wins: 83.8 (High-88, Low-79)
Pick: The Marlins are a little like the Braves, only totally different. That difference is instead of depending on beat-up old fart to put it together one more season, Florida is counting on a younger crowd reaching maturity together.
Perhaps part of me has been sucked in by SBR poster frozenman's optimism about this team, but I do like the 'over' on this one. In Florida's top run of 88 wins, the trio of Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez combined for 90 starts with the Marlins winning 58 times.
New York 82½ (+150/-180)
Avg. Wins: 82.2 (High-86, low-78)
Pick: I did buy my annual ticket on the Mets to win the NL. But that's really to keep my friends that are big Mets fans thinking that it's my jinx on their beloved team. New York should make a big jump in the win column from the 70 it put up last year, but betting on getting at least 13 of the 19 back from 2008? Nope, not me.
The 82-83 mark seems about right. If anyone has more faith in John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez, have at that juicy 'over' price.
Philadelphia 92½ (-105/-115)
Avg. Wins: 89.4 (High-98, Low-84)
Pick: As you'd expect, the 98-win simulation included some great numbers for players like Halladay, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. The Phils won 24 of Doc's 32 starts in that run, with Howard banging out 47 and Utley putting forth MVP numbers -- 29 HR, 112 RBI, 114 Runs, 32 SB and a .328 batting average.
Brad Lidge and Cole Hamels, along with good health for the position players, are the keys here. As good as they can be, I like the 'under' on this one.
Washington 70½ (-130/+110)
Avg. Wins: 69.2 (High-73, Low-64)
Pick: Will this team finish better than the 59 wins posted back-to-back 2008-09? I think that's an easy yes. Will it be at least 12 games better in the win column to bust this 'over?' I think not.
The difference could very well be the kid Stephen Strasburg. Last year's top pick in the June draft, he could be up by June (if not before) and push this team higher than a dozen extra in the win column. If you think at least three of the previous win totals are two wins too high, then bet the Nationals on the 'over.' I'm going low here.
Statistical sources for this article include Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN.com, Retrosheet.org, SBRforum.com and UncleWilliesAgingMind.net.
Very few teams enter a major league campaign with rosters talented enough to threaten the 100-win mark. The Philadelphia Phillies are one of the few heading into the coming season.
It's been a long time, a really long time since a team won three consecutive NL pennants. The added postseason levels are the biggest reason whey it's much tougher now than when the Cardinals did it from 1942-44.
The Phillies have a team that can do it, though the easy money is to bet that doesn't happen.
The addition of Roy Halladay at the top of the rotation was the big news in the offseason. But he won't be the reason why this Phillies team might ultimately finish in the mid-90s or better in the win column during the regular season. The two most critical factors into Philadelphia's regular season campaign: Keeping the studs in the lineup all season and the collection of arms out of the pen that will pitch about 35 percent or more of the innings.
Should the Phils falter, the Braves have a team to check into the division's penthouse. They also have a team that can go terribly wrong if a few big pieces don't fall into place.
Then you have the volatile duo of Florida and New York, plus the red-headed stepchild of the family in DC. And we all know that it's never wise to put your money and your good faith in anything about Washington DC.
Or is it?
NOTE: Win totals and prices shown below were current at The Greek.com as of Sunday, Mar.14, 1 p.m. (ET)
Atlanta 86½ (Over +105 / Under -125)
Avg. wins: 85.2 (High-90, Low-81)
Pick: I'm sticking to my guns from throughout the winter in predicting the Braves will win 86-89 games and be a playoff team. Still, there are several reasons to like the 'under' here that came through in the simulation runs. Getting productive seasons out of both Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus may be less important now that all signs point to the team looking as if it can count on wunderkind Jason Heyward.
Billy Wagner and Tim Hudson will be the most important players on this team now, Wagner especially. In defiance of the sim stats, I'm going 'over' here.
Florida 81½ (+115/-135)
Avg. Wins: 83.8 (High-88, Low-79)
Pick: The Marlins are a little like the Braves, only totally different. That difference is instead of depending on beat-up old fart to put it together one more season, Florida is counting on a younger crowd reaching maturity together.
Perhaps part of me has been sucked in by SBR poster frozenman's optimism about this team, but I do like the 'over' on this one. In Florida's top run of 88 wins, the trio of Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez combined for 90 starts with the Marlins winning 58 times.
New York 82½ (+150/-180)
Avg. Wins: 82.2 (High-86, low-78)
Pick: I did buy my annual ticket on the Mets to win the NL. But that's really to keep my friends that are big Mets fans thinking that it's my jinx on their beloved team. New York should make a big jump in the win column from the 70 it put up last year, but betting on getting at least 13 of the 19 back from 2008? Nope, not me.
The 82-83 mark seems about right. If anyone has more faith in John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez, have at that juicy 'over' price.
Philadelphia 92½ (-105/-115)
Avg. Wins: 89.4 (High-98, Low-84)
Pick: As you'd expect, the 98-win simulation included some great numbers for players like Halladay, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. The Phils won 24 of Doc's 32 starts in that run, with Howard banging out 47 and Utley putting forth MVP numbers -- 29 HR, 112 RBI, 114 Runs, 32 SB and a .328 batting average.
Brad Lidge and Cole Hamels, along with good health for the position players, are the keys here. As good as they can be, I like the 'under' on this one.
Washington 70½ (-130/+110)
Avg. Wins: 69.2 (High-73, Low-64)
Pick: Will this team finish better than the 59 wins posted back-to-back 2008-09? I think that's an easy yes. Will it be at least 12 games better in the win column to bust this 'over?' I think not.
The difference could very well be the kid Stephen Strasburg. Last year's top pick in the June draft, he could be up by June (if not before) and push this team higher than a dozen extra in the win column. If you think at least three of the previous win totals are two wins too high, then bet the Nationals on the 'over.' I'm going low here.
Statistical sources for this article include Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN.com, Retrosheet.org, SBRforum.com and UncleWilliesAgingMind.net.