SBR's Dustin Saracini finally came back down to earth last night but looks to get right back on track with his best No Run First Inning (NRFI) bets for Friday, July 25th:
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels (-130 at DraftKings)
Bryan Woo (2.91 ERA) vs. Jose Soriano (3.83 ERA)
NRFI record: Mariners (52-51) vs. Angels (44-59)
"Well well well, we meet again, Woo.
If you've been following me this year, you know we can always count on Woo as part of our best NRFI bets today, and for good reason.
The electric right-hander hasn't allowed a run in the first inning over his last nine starts, dating all the way back to May 24. Additionally, the Angels are hitting just .190 against him across 61 plate appearances. Let's ride him to the bank one more time.
Soriano is a little bit more of a risky pick, but I do love him in this spot. The Mariners are hitting just .169 against the righty across 75 at-bats, which should be what's needed to put up a goose egg in the first frame. If that isn't enough to convince you, he's striking out AL MVP odds contender Cal Raleigh 37% of the time, and Randy Arozarena on 43% of his plate appearances. He should see both in the first inning. We're feeling pretty good about this one."
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants (-135 at FanDuel)
Clay Holmes (3.48 ERA) vs. Logan Webb (3.08 ERA)
NRFI record: Mets (52-50) vs. Giants (44-58)
"Logan Webb continues to be Logan Webb this year, and we're backing him as part of our best NRFI bets today as a result.
That's especially the case when he pitches against the Mets, who own just a .246 xBA against him across 117 plate appearances. The Giants' ace regularly dominates Juan Soto (3-for-15), Pete Alonso (2-for-16), and Francisco Lindor (3-for-14). Those numbers will play.
Can Holmes get us three simple outs? That's the main question here. The Giants don't boast solid numbers against him, either, which is a good place to start. Rafael Devers (2-for-7), Mike Yastrzemski (1-for-4), and Matt Chapman (3-for-10) will all likely face him in the first frame, and I'm giving the advantage to Holmes in this matchup.
I'd price this closer to -145 instead of the -135 betting odds we're receiving from FanDuel. While it's not the value we're used to getting, every dollar counts when capping the MLB slate daily for the entire season. Let's chalk up another W tonight."
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels (-130 at DraftKings)
Bryan Woo (2.91 ERA) vs. Jose Soriano (3.83 ERA)
NRFI record: Mariners (52-51) vs. Angels (44-59)
"Well well well, we meet again, Woo.
If you've been following me this year, you know we can always count on Woo as part of our best NRFI bets today, and for good reason.
The electric right-hander hasn't allowed a run in the first inning over his last nine starts, dating all the way back to May 24. Additionally, the Angels are hitting just .190 against him across 61 plate appearances. Let's ride him to the bank one more time.
Soriano is a little bit more of a risky pick, but I do love him in this spot. The Mariners are hitting just .169 against the righty across 75 at-bats, which should be what's needed to put up a goose egg in the first frame. If that isn't enough to convince you, he's striking out AL MVP odds contender Cal Raleigh 37% of the time, and Randy Arozarena on 43% of his plate appearances. He should see both in the first inning. We're feeling pretty good about this one."
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants (-135 at FanDuel)
Clay Holmes (3.48 ERA) vs. Logan Webb (3.08 ERA)
NRFI record: Mets (52-50) vs. Giants (44-58)
"Logan Webb continues to be Logan Webb this year, and we're backing him as part of our best NRFI bets today as a result.
That's especially the case when he pitches against the Mets, who own just a .246 xBA against him across 117 plate appearances. The Giants' ace regularly dominates Juan Soto (3-for-15), Pete Alonso (2-for-16), and Francisco Lindor (3-for-14). Those numbers will play.
Can Holmes get us three simple outs? That's the main question here. The Giants don't boast solid numbers against him, either, which is a good place to start. Rafael Devers (2-for-7), Mike Yastrzemski (1-for-4), and Matt Chapman (3-for-10) will all likely face him in the first frame, and I'm giving the advantage to Holmes in this matchup.
I'd price this closer to -145 instead of the -135 betting odds we're receiving from FanDuel. While it's not the value we're used to getting, every dollar counts when capping the MLB slate daily for the entire season. Let's chalk up another W tonight."