Entering Thursday off 3 straight sweeps, SBR's Dustin Saracini is red hot with his No Run First Inning (NRFI) picks. He looks to add to his 56-34 (+12.19) record with his best bets for Thursday, July 24th:
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers (-115 at DraftKings)
Eric Lauer (2.80 ERA) vs. Reese Olson (2.71 ERA)
NRFI record: Blue Jays (49-53) vs. Tigers (56-47)
"It's the Lauer hour, baby, and we're riding him as part of our best NRFI bets today. While the Tigers own a .306 xBA against the lefty, they haven't seen this version of him.
Lauer is easily a totally different pitcher this season (that ERA is a career-best). He's earned two quality starts over his last three outings and is notorious for coming out of the gate hot, as the hurler hasn't allowed a run in the first frame across his last six appearances.
Olson has been a cash cow for us this season, too, and it helps that he's been dominating the Blue Jays over his career. Across 39 plate appearances, Toronto owns just a .133 xBA (.083 average), which includes shutting down Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1-for-6), George Springer (0-for-6), and Bo Bichette (1-for-7).
There shouldn't be a problem getting through the first inning unscathed with Olson on the mound."
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels (-105 at FanDuel)
Logan Evans (3.81 ERA) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (3.13 ERA)
NRFI record: Mariners (52-50) vs. Angels (44-58)
"This isn't the most conventional NRFI, and let's just get that out of the way. But I love this play for a few reasons.
For one, Kikuchi has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for stretches this season. However, we've taken him a few times as part of our best NRFI bets today, and there hasn't been a strong return on our investment. I'm betting on him in this spot because he's historically pitched well against the Mariners, who own just a .199 xBA against him. Let's get the good version of Kikuchi tonight.
On the other side is Evans, who's done a great job getting us three simple outs this season. While the Angels haven't seen him at all (which has worked out for us this year if you've been following), he's allowed a run in the first inning just once all campaign. Let's ride him again.
I'd price this play closer to -120 betting odds, so the -105 we're getting from FanDuel provides us with a great opportunity to hit on some value."
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers (-115 at DraftKings)
Eric Lauer (2.80 ERA) vs. Reese Olson (2.71 ERA)
NRFI record: Blue Jays (49-53) vs. Tigers (56-47)
"It's the Lauer hour, baby, and we're riding him as part of our best NRFI bets today. While the Tigers own a .306 xBA against the lefty, they haven't seen this version of him.
Lauer is easily a totally different pitcher this season (that ERA is a career-best). He's earned two quality starts over his last three outings and is notorious for coming out of the gate hot, as the hurler hasn't allowed a run in the first frame across his last six appearances.
Olson has been a cash cow for us this season, too, and it helps that he's been dominating the Blue Jays over his career. Across 39 plate appearances, Toronto owns just a .133 xBA (.083 average), which includes shutting down Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1-for-6), George Springer (0-for-6), and Bo Bichette (1-for-7).
There shouldn't be a problem getting through the first inning unscathed with Olson on the mound."
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels (-105 at FanDuel)
Logan Evans (3.81 ERA) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (3.13 ERA)
NRFI record: Mariners (52-50) vs. Angels (44-58)
"This isn't the most conventional NRFI, and let's just get that out of the way. But I love this play for a few reasons.
For one, Kikuchi has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for stretches this season. However, we've taken him a few times as part of our best NRFI bets today, and there hasn't been a strong return on our investment. I'm betting on him in this spot because he's historically pitched well against the Mariners, who own just a .199 xBA against him. Let's get the good version of Kikuchi tonight.
On the other side is Evans, who's done a great job getting us three simple outs this season. While the Angels haven't seen him at all (which has worked out for us this year if you've been following), he's allowed a run in the first inning just once all campaign. Let's ride him again.
I'd price this play closer to -120 betting odds, so the -105 we're getting from FanDuel provides us with a great opportunity to hit on some value."