CK's 2025 MLB Thread

[atthehalf]

Massive schedule tomorrow full of oodles of value. It's like poker. You play multiple hands all day and night. You won't win every hand. Poker isn't designed that way. You will literally fold more than you win. But when you do win you want it to be epic and stack those chips. Chris Sale to the rescue boys

[atthehalf]

Bellozo is so cold blooded that there isn't even a K's line for him-yet the FF is lined at 4. I took the 3.5 because I always try to avoid vigorous as a preference,

Because of the weak hitting shown by the Sailors-some of the boys in the discord were looking at Wesneski as their potential POD until I pointed out that against the Sailors he has a poor line of .375 AVG; .444 OBP; .625 SLG; and 1.069 OPS-which his almost at the golden 1.100 that I like to take an opposing team total to go over.

Zach Eflin has a weird stat of K'ing up 39.2% of the Snakes batters that he has faced over 51 at bats with a .176 AVG and .423 OPS and .216 SLG. It's weird. Gallen of course has stellar numbers vs the orioles and any team for that matter-still Eflin's numbers are a tad better so the juice is worth the squeeze.

Easton Lucas is the pride and joy of the Jays farm system and he gets the start today. I drafted him during the off season (of course no one paid that any mind while making NBA moves) and have him raring to go with a neat 100% share at stake. I seriously doubt that he goes the full 5 frames but there's always a good chance right? Who doesn't like volume money?

[atthehalf]

FILTERED FOR 4/7/25

First off I drafted Valente Bellozo (Fish) appearing on 0% of rosters) and also Easton Lucas (Jays) also appearing on 0% of rosters.

Should either of those two go f or 5 frames and a 3/1 K/W ratio I will be a happy man even if I lose each and every other move for today. The potential share percentage of a 100% is ignorant


3:00 Rot.#960 Tigers+130 FF ML Mize#19 DNS (15% of rosters)
6:30 Rot.#961 Jays+115 FF ML Lucas (DRAFT 0% of rosters)
7:00 Rot.#955 Fish/Metropolitans UNDER 3.5 +115 Bellozo (DRAFT 0% rosters)/Senga#6
7:30 Rot.#968 Wanderers+110 FF ML Eovaldi#1
9:30 Rot.#969 Orioles+120 FF ML Eflin#12 (71% of rosters)
9:30 Rot.#969 Orioles (Eflin#12) OVER 4.5 +100 K's
9:30 Rot.#957 Red Leggins+128 FF ML Greene#3 (94% rosters)
9:30 Rot.#966 Sailors-0.5 -105 FF RL Gilbert#2 9
9:30 Rot.#966 Sailors Gilbert OVER 6.5 K's +105 (K's up 40% of HOU bats)

[atthehalf]

Use this instead

[atthehalf]

Don't use this boys-you will lose lightning fast

[atthehalf]

I am not saying that I am the cause of this-I did tear up the Hard Rock sportsbook with moves on pitcher's K's last season and there ae individuals in my league who are cozy with some of the higher ups there-but the numbers that they are offering for K's is ridiculous. Like Alcantara is over 4.5 K's -170. As likely as it is to happen-I ain't putting that type of risk on any move for MLB. I already spoke on Glasnow's number. Looks like I will have to go with my non name brand selections for K's which suits me just fine

[atthehalf]

Glasnow is OVER 6.5 K's -155. Those who know how I get down obviously know that i don't make many moves over -135 and this won't be one of them. Big board will be updated with this move as a scratch

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In the event that Kyle Finnegan is named as the starter for the Nats tomorrow I will be on that too as a live underdog at +0.5 FF

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FILTERED FOR 4/6/25

CRUMBS POD Giants (Jordan Hicks) (16% rostership)


1:30 Rot.#911 Pale Hose +180 FF ML Perez 2 UNITS (7% rosters)
1:30 Rot.#923 Jays/Mets OVER 4.5 +110 FF Francis#12/Peterson#15 1 UNIT
1:30 Rot.#922 Buccos+130 FF ML Heaney (DNS) 1 UNIT (3% rosters)
1:30 Rot.#901 Fish+125 FF ML Alcantara#4 1 UNIT (89% rostership)
1:30 Rot.#903 Dodgers (Glasnow#1) OVER K's SCRATCH NO MOVE ON THIS
2:00 Rot.#913 Astronauts-105 FF ML Blanco 2 UNITS (60% rosters)
2:00 Rot.#916 Royals-115 FF ML Bubic 2 UNITS (19% rosters)
2:00 Rot.#907 Red Leggins/Brews OVER 4.5 -110 FF Spiers (DNS)/Patrick (DNS)
4:00 Rot.#928 Sailors/Giants UNDER 3.5 +115 FF Woo#3/Hicks#7

[atthehalf]

Ah there it is. Ok so the Astronauts was a bad beat (9 hits and 9 LOB) and so was the Blunts wit ha the bases jacked and no outs in the 5th and not getting a run. Have to look at those setbacks as collateral damage somewhat and move on to tomorrow. I have already mined it out. I am super proud of the Gators for making the NCAA final too!

[atthehalf]

Marquez has 6 walks and it's the 6th frame-however the A's only have one run! What the heck is going on here?

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There may be a Kyle Finnegan sighting tomorrow for the Nats! That would be great since I have him stashed

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Damn-so Blunts with bases loaded and no outs don't score in the bottom of the 5th. This is turning out to be one of those days when you can do everything right and still be wrong...Pissers

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Holy smokes! Astronauts have 9 runners LOB and it's only the 7th frame! Egads!

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ADDED MOVE

Rot.#973 Cardinals+100 ML FF Pallante

Sometimes you have to go with the metrics and trust the process. Not that Pallante is great by any measure, but his hard hit % is 37.5% and Fitts is 40% ; Pallante whiffs are at 35.1% and swing % is 47.4%. Fitts has whiffs at 18.2% and a swing % of 62.0 which is the HIGHEST out of any starter. Gotta roll with the percentages and trust it will pan out

[atthehalf]

Too bad Matthew Boyd has the Friars offense to contend with today-but it's in a home run suppressing park so he should be alright. I ranked him at #17 today-but he has only 9% ownership by managers so it's a decent sized payday should he do what he does. His hard hit rate is only 21.4% which is EXCELLENT

[atthehalf]

Ok so the big board has been updated

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I haven't figured out how i will use Reese Olson yet. Since my principle is to not make a move over -135 it may be difficult to find a decent price for him. His K% was at 21.7% last season so that may be the way to go. Let me sleep on it

[atthehalf]

4/5/25


First of all I blasted away on Colin Rea (Cubs) who has 0% rostership. Translated if/when he gets a spot start for the Cubs and does well I stand to make a cut of a 100% share

Secondly the CRUMBS POD Streamer of the day for Saturday is Reese Olson (Tigers). It's the Pale Hose and he has only a 20% use rate. He is highly capable of giving me the 5 frames and 3/1 that I need to keep the chunks of money rolling in even on days that are subpar for conventional moves

Bailey Ober has a ghastly 1.207 OPS against the Astronauts-time for a team total

Roki Sasaki has a 19.5%K rate and 24% whiff rate compared to Nola's 34.8% K rate and 31.8% whiff rate and even worse a 68% barrels and 89% hard hit rate. Are you serious?

All you need to know is that Bailey Falter has a 1.152 OPS vs the Bombers-oh my. And then in the other corner we have Marcus Stroman who I have demoted down to DNS status and has a line of 80 AB; 12K; 6 BB; .338 AVG, .384 OBP; .425 SLG; .809 OPS vs the Buccos.

Despite less than stellar K-rates and whiff rates Bassitt and Canning have been able to neutralize the opposing teams hitters. It's cringe worthy weird

Brady Singer with the 33.3% K rate and 34.9 % whiff rate to go along with a sterling .160 AVG, .276 OBP, .280 SLG and .556 OPS vs a DNS arm-in what looks to be a bullpen game? I will take my chances on Singer and his mitt popping 4 seamer.

What do you get when you have two DNS (DO NOT START) facing one another in Coors Field? You get the 27th ranked and 22nd ranked arms. Sears K% is 28 to go along with a 24.4% whiff rate and 16.7% barrels and a hard hit % of 44.4? Marquez has a 18.8% K and 22.2% whiff rate. The ball's gonna be in play A LOT! I will come along and fill in the prices once they become available-but for now it's important to get the A's/Rox total in BEFORE it goes up

Rot.#963 Astronauts+100 FF ML Arrighetti
Rot.#963 Astronauts Team Total OVER 3.5 -110
Rot.#954 Blunts-130 FF ML Nola 2 UNITS
Rot.#971 Bombers/Buccos OVER 5.5 +110 FF
Rot.#971 Bombers Team Total OVER 5.5 +115
Rot.#976 Jays/Metropolitans UNDER 4.5 -135 FF
Rot.#957 Red Leggins-115 FF ML Singer 2 UNITS
Rot.#977 A's/.Rox OVER 9 -115
Rot.#962 Tigers (Olson) OVER 5.5 K's +120

[atthehalf]

BUY TIME

10 Teamers

Austin Wells-C (Bombers)
Lars Nootbar OF (Cardinals)
Kristian Campbell 2B (Red Sox)
Victor Scott OF (Cardinals)

12 Teamers

Wilyer Abreu OF (Red Sox)
Spencer Torkelson 1B (Tigers)
Tyler Soderstrom 1B (A's)
Otto Lopez (2B, 3B (Fish)

Sell

10 Teamers

Triston Casas 1B (Red Sox)
Nolan Arenado 3B (Cardinals) I caught heat over this one in the discord


12 Teamers

Nolan Jones OF (Guardians)
David Hamilton 2B/SS (Red Sox)

[atthehalf]

Not that anyone gives a damn but I found out through my data mining that my best way of getting wins in this format are to stick to the FF and avoid late game bullpen collapses.

1) Follow my streamers for CRUMBS POD some sort of way be it either with K's or a side ONLY and not to mix in any other move on a POD game

2) Make moves on team totals for teams that have a 1.100 or more for an OVER and less than .400 for an UNDER

3) Always make a move on an arm that I have ranked higher than the favorite as an underdog; either RL (at less than -130) or a ML

4) Avoid buying ANYTHING over -135-even if it results in a loss from making a RL move it pays off over the course of a season

5) Only make a full game move on a TOTAL

6) Only go for K's with arms that have a a 35% or more K rate and WHIFF rate of the same

[atthehalf]

Tyler Mahle#16 (Wanderers) is on only 2% of rosters facing Zack Littell #20; and the Wanderers have an OPS of 1.133 against him. Mahle has only faced 2 of the rays hitters so he will be abit of a mystery-let's hope it lasts long enough to get through those 5 frames and give me a sneaky good payday on a 98% share should he get the 3/1 to go along with it.

I have Fedde ranked at #19 and Beuhler at #22 so there's a higher dog, Nick Martinez is also a higher ranked dog.

Luzardo has a 50% K and 41.9% whiff rate. that's hard to ignore-even if it is against the Champs. Hey at least Freddy Freeman will be sitting this one out which may help matters some.

One of the ways that I found while data mining is to take the Team total OVER for teams with a 1.100 or more OPS against the pitcher that they are facing. This is true for Littell vs the Wanderers and for


Rot.#919 Cardinals+0.5 -120 FF RL Fedde (HD)
Rot.#922 Metropolitans-0.5 +105 Megill 2 UNITS CRUMBS POD
Rot.#916 Wanderers Team Total OVER 4.5 +105
Rot.#909 Red Leggins-105 FF ML Martinez (HD)
Rot.#904 Blunts (Luzardo) OVER 5.5 K's -105
Rot.#916 Wanderers-0.5 -105 RL FF Mahle

[atthehalf]

Still data mining this morning. I am looking to perfect the way that I intersect fantasy league baseball with traditional sides and totals moves. I am 3/4 of the way to looking over results both good and bad and in a few hours I should have my formula.

In the meantime one thing is for certain-my streamers of the day will stay intact and be a big part of how I operate going forward

Rot.#922 Metropolitans-0.5 FF -105 Megill 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

Morton with the 10 K's and 2 BB over 5 frames! Excellent!

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Despite the runs surrendered(which mean absolutely nothing in my league) Charlie Morton is off to a 8 K 2 BB start and here he is in the 5th frame

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Tylor Megill (Metropolitans) is on only 10% of rosters for tomorrow vs Jays.

He looked SO GOOD in his last start and I'm being a bit aggressive here to showcase how he should be picked up just for the chance that he keeps it going. If he does-this may be the breakout pick of the year. No joke. is it a big IF? Kinda yeah...

Nice spot to put down a cool $600 boys on him. May bring back north of over 4 dimes for me with a nice 5 frames and 3/1 ratio and a split of a 90% pot.

Grab him NOW and don't tell anyone

[atthehalf]

Just picked up some Lodolo. Any time that I see an arm that I have at a higher rank and is an underdog-I am on it, I have Cortes#6 and Lodolo#3

Rot.#953 Red Leggins+100 Lodolo#3

[atthehalf]

CRUMBS POD RECORD 5-1

Todays CRUMBS POD Streamer is

Orioles (Charlie Morton)

Appearing on only 13% of rosters this is clearly a cash grab. And his numbers vs the Red Sox aren't overwhelming. but they are decent as ****. 71 AB; 18 K, 7 BB, .225 AVG, .295 OBP, .296 SLG, .591 OPS. The mere fact that he has a 10.80 ERA and is FAVORED means that for the most part the homework has already been done for you. Morton is your typical middling arm. There's a chance for a quality start and win here even in the conventional sense of betting as he has a dynamite offense to help out if he is terrible today. You guys are after conventional sides and totals moves-I am not. I am a cold blooded fantasy league sharp who's out for large sums of cash. It is quite common that I can have a losing day with conventional sides and totals and make a HUGE profit streaming. Hell I gotta go pick up another envelope this morning from the Commish at his office (and pick up a few summons and complaints to serve) for Roupp!

I have Carrasco (Bombers) ranked dead last today, and when Merrill Kelly has a .180 AVG, .240 OBP, .348 SLG, and .588 OPS vs the Bombers I am not afraid to go against the joes and take the Snakes yet again. I hate relievers so as per the usual I am going FF with this.

If you are chilling in a league where you can only go after K's then Brown vs Ryan may be your game for a combo. One of them is going to scorch the earth so 11 or 12 is actually not as high a number for a comb as you may think


Ok so here are the goods for today

Rot.#951 Rox/Blunts OVER 5.5 +100 FF Senzatela#9 DNS/Walker#8 DNS
Rot.#956 Orioles-105 ML FF Morton#4
Rot.#958 Astronauts/Twinkies UNDER 3.5 +100 FF Brown#2/Ryan#1
Rot.#959 Snakes+105 Kelly#5

[atthehalf]

The payout for Casey Mize last night is so large that the Commish has asked me to meet him at the Blufin to collect my earnings in person over lunch. I love me some stickball!

Awesome payday. That's all that I am going to say. I don't like bragging from me or anyone else

[atthehalf]

And when the dust settled my man gave me the go-ahead to come by his office in the morning to get a special package AGAIN for the advice for Roupp today and his 4 frames and 8 K's and everyone else in the entire league was on the Astronauts and Framber. Even though it was a managerial decision to pull him he still is going to pay me as if he went the 5 frames

[atthehalf]

The payout for Casey Mize last night is so large that the Commish has asked me to meet him at the Blufin to collect my earnings in person over lunch. I love me some stickball!

[atthehalf]

Don't chase K's with Roupp-just go for it hoping that he is around after the 5fth frame and gives you a 3/1!

Skenes has a line of 7.5 K's. he may have that by the end of the 4th frame.

Do get some-I am

Rot.#917 Buccos (Skenes) OVER 7.5 K's -115

[atthehalf]

My Top Ten Streamers for 4/2/25

#1 Tigers (Skubal)
#2 Blunts 9Wheeler)
#3 Buccos (Skenes)
#4 Red Sox (Crochet)
#5 Fathers (Cease)
#6 Twinkies (Lopez)
#7 Royals (Ragans)
#8 Dodgers (Snell)
#9 Red Leggins (Greene)
#10 Astronauts (Valdez)

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4/2/25

CRUMBS STREAMER POD Landen Roupp

Rot.#921 Nats-0.5 -105 FF RL Gore
Rot.#911 Red Sox-125 FF ML Crochet
Rot.#903 Rox+1.5 -125 FF RL Freeland
Rot.#926 Giants+0.5 -105 FF RL Roupp
Rot.#929 Snakes+110 FF ML Gallen
Rot.#924 A's-115 FF ML Springs
Rot.#914 Red Leggins-0.5 -105 FF RL Greene
Rot.#917 Buccos-0.5 +115 FF RL Skenes
Rot.#915 Royals-110 FF ML Ragans
Rot.#927 Guardians+0.5 +100 FF RL Lively

[atthehalf]

Tomorrow's CRUMBS Streamer of the Day will be

(Giants)Landen Roupp

Look he was incredible during the spring and I 'm excited to see if he's valuable enough for you all to pick up on your rosters across your leagues. If you have a questionable arm on your wire-you may want to swap them out and replace them with him BEFORE the outing. Of course you have no idea who the **** I'm talking about-you're not a pro and when i spoke on the up and comers you weren't interested-all that you wanted ere whatever I was making moves on that day. but that's neither here nor there-get you some and let's pray that the awful managerial decision has him removed before he can go 5 frames and get the coveted 3-1 K/BB ratio. He's only on 7% of rosters so this will be a MASSIVE payday for me and you too if you should so choose.

Back to data mining for tomorrow