CK's 2025 MLB Thread

[atthehalf]

80% of the money is on the Cubs early as well

[atthehalf]

Midday now-my confidant at the Hard Rock says that approximately 80% of parlays and over 90% straights are on the Bombers ML and RL today. In short he said that they need the Orioles badly to avoid a huge loss

[atthehalf]

Chris Guccione is behind the dish today and is 2-1 for OVER 9.5 and has an average of 9.21 with 17.1 K's on average. Kirby has K's up Cubs batters 38.9% and Boyd 21.2%. So it makes all of the reason in the world to take Kirby's K's

Sailors (Kirby) OVER 5.5 K's +130 (ALTERNATE LINE)

The Cubs average 7.51 K's per game anyway and had 9 in their last game. Kirby is no ordinary arm despite his less than desired record

[atthehalf]

ZAC GALLEN is 9-0 to the OVER as a division favorite. -These starts averaged 14.4 total runs per game! Then his last 3 starts vs Rox averaged NINETEEN total runs per game!-that's a hell of a trend. Let's go the full too

Snakes/Rox OVER 12

[atthehalf]

Amazing stat

The first five 6.5 lined game is undefeated this year going 4-0 so let's get that one out the way. Obviously the Rox are hitting well right now and the Snakes are not going to take them lightly with Gomber on the bump coming back from the injured list. I have him ranked dead last today as far as arms are concerned

Snakes/Rox OVER 6.5 FF Gallen/Gomber

[atthehalf]

Oh I forgot to list the reasons for Braves-140 but I did touch on Fuentes yesterday

[atthehalf]

That's it for my SIDES for today. I will blast away on my TOTALS once today's umpire assignments have been released. Here's a condensed version for those who don't want to look up and down the thread

2:00 Sailors+109 Kirby
6:30 Wanderers-1.5 -106 deGrom
7:00 Mets+156 Tidwell
7:00 Braves-140 Fuentes
7:00 Orioles+184 Sugano
7:00 Metropolitans+1.5 -120/Orioles-1.5 -105 2 WAY +245 ODDS
7:00 Red Leggins+124 Singer 2 UNITS
8:00 Brews+145 Misiorowski
9:30 Fathers-1.5 +120 RL Pivetta 2 UNITS
7:00 Rays-112 Baz

[atthehalf]

For the same reasons I spelled out before..

Rays-112 Baz

[atthehalf]

The Royals swept the Wanderers and now get to face the Fathers who destroyed Yamamoto yesterday. Lorenzen is a DNS arm. You know what to do

Fathers-1.5 +125 RL Pivetta 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

The Twinkies are road weary and the Brews are in the middle of a road trip and could care less about the Twinkies fatigue issues. The Twinkies bullpen has road miles on them too. That boy Misiorowski lucked up not having to have to pitch at Wrigley and gets the Twinkies stadium instead. Kid's dynamite. Once Joe Ryan leaves the game the festivities will begin

Brews+130 Misiorowski

[atthehalf]

The Cardinals are off of a double header with extra frames and travel back home to face the red hot (no pun intended) Red Leggins

Red Leggins+115 Singer 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

Metropolitans+1.5 -120 RL
Orioles+1.5 -105 RL

2 WAY+245 ODDS

[atthehalf]

Metrpolitans+175 Tidwell
Orioles+1.5 -105 RL Sugano

[atthehalf]

The Metropolitans are going to have a bullpen day against the Blunts and I like the element of surprise for that. No way should they be that big of an underdog coming in off of being swept by the Braves.

Also surprising is the Bombers being such a big favorite over the Orioles who are looking like the team that was in the playoffs last season. Sugano is your prototypical sinker ball pitcher who produces a lot of ground outs. Think Logan Webb before he introduced high sweepers to tunnel off of his sinker. And even with that Sugano has K'd up 38.4% of the Bombers hitters he has faced. The UNDER looks good and so do the Orioles at +1.5

[atthehalf]

Ok that didn't take long.

CRUMBS POD Shane Baz (Rays)

Baz has leaned into a cutter and I love the pitcher he's turning into. On top of that is the Tigers coming in off of a double header with extra frames vs the Buccos with LATE altered travel.

Baz only has 38% rostership which is good but not great for the payout but substantial enough. I seriously doubt that he will out duel Jack Flaherty but anything is possible. All I want is my 5/3/1/K/W to get a share split of 62%. I am leaning heavily towards taking the Rays straight up too. Baz is dynamite in the +110 to -130 ratio at a crispy 12-0 streak

[atthehalf]

Sweet envelope coming this morning for Charlie Morton!

Cade Horton was swapped out for Matthew Boyd for the Cubs so I am actually in scramble mode now to find an arm to feature or the CRUMBS. I will be back with that in a few

[atthehalf]

No need to wait on this until tomorrow. The Buccos are heading home on a later flight than planned because of the extras against the Tigers with a rain delay and a double header at that. Then there's deGrom and his team just got swept by the Royals

Wanderers-1.5 -110 deGrom 2 UNITS

Also i have George Kirby ranked way higher than Matthew Boyd; and he's an underdog, and the Sailors rip up lefties on the road

Sailors+110 Kirby 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

damn...Thunder getting castrated....

[atthehalf]

Rasmussen's fate is sealed and he is out of the game! Good stuff

[atthehalf]

The Braves are trotting out Didier Fuentes tomorrow and I am overjoyed. I drafted him when I saw that he was a fast mover and was promoted to Double-A. Fuentes has seen his name pop up more and more in dynasty circles, and his promotion to Double-A was well deserved. The Braves are no stranger to promoting pitching prospects they believe in quickly through their system. The decision to promote Fuentes speaks volumes as to how the organization views him. He remains the second-best prospect in this system and a mid-tier pitching prospect for dynasty managers.

Translated-snap him up tonight if you already haven't

[atthehalf]

Charlie Morton showing out- 5 frames 6K's and 0 walks. The only problem with this is he only has 62 pitches which means that he will in all likelihood go out for the 6th frame...piss. Head up he has better stats than Rasmussen who has 4 K's and 3 walks and is at 80 pitches. This is looking good for the bigger payout

[atthehalf]

Damn the Buccos bullpen.... wow!

[atthehalf]

For those who like NBA

Thunder-6 3 UNITS

[atthehalf]

7:30 Orioles Charlie Morton OVER 5.5 K's -125
7:30 Orioles+120 Morton
10:00 A's+117 Lopez


TOTALS

7:30 Orioles/Rays UNDER 4.5 FF Morton/Rasmussen
10:00 Fathers/Dodgers UNDER 9 Bergert/Yamamoto 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

If this game gets under way I will be on the Orioles-it's raining sheets out here in Tampa right now tho

[atthehalf]

SIDES

5:30 Buccos-132 Skenes
7:00 Braves-130 Strider 2 UNITS

TOTALS

5:30 Cardinals/Pale Hose UNDER 9 McGreevy/Vasil GAME 2
6:40 Blunts/Fish UNDER 7.5 Sanchez/Cabrera
7:00 Metropolitans/Braves UNDER 9 Holmes/Strider

[atthehalf]

Show of hands-how many of y'all would have taken the Pale Hose for the FF LOL!

[atthehalf]

Load up on Cade Horton (Cubs) for tomorrow for the CRUMBS. Only 19% rostership and he has an arsenal that should work well against the Sailors bats. I'm excited to watch Horton develop this year with his cut-fastball and legit breakers. The Saiklors aren't enough of an obstacle to bench Horton

[atthehalf]

Ok now for my CRUMBS POD. I like Edward Cabrera (Fish) but he keeps getting removed early which isn't good for my league. I need 5 frames no matter what in order to qualify for a payout.

So I am just gonna be ignorant with it today and take a guy that absolutely NOBODY wants to get my 5/3/1/K/W.

Charlie Morton (Orioles)...just hear me out on this. Against Rays hitters he has K'd up 27.5% with a .133 AVG with an average exit velo of just 88.9 MPH. Then his xwOBA is .317 on top of that. He only has (with good reason) 10% rostership. He's been better since returning to the rotation, but we all know how low the floor is. I just need him to be good TODAY and give me an opportunity at a share split on 90% and I can bring home close to 5 grand or more (if he has better stats straight up against Rasmussen) as Rasmussen has 80% of the pot and then there are the additional 10% of scragglers who drafted Rasmussen for today. Those guys are willfully dumb as they should have already had Rasmussen rostered up from day 1

[atthehalf]

OMG the boos in Yankee Stadium are insane

[atthehalf]

Oh wow! The Twinkies and the Red Leggins are blasting away! Well 0-1 to start the day with this one

[atthehalf]

SIDES


2: 00 Pale Hose+0.5 FF-125 Burke
2:00 Brews+110 Peralta
4:00 Giants-1.5 +120 RL Webb

[atthehalf]

I predict a few week Heater for you! Thanks for your knowledge and writeups!

I am on a heater-just in fantasy league LOL! I am demolishing the competition 59-24. Conventional is much harder because of managerial decisions (for example bringing in a guy to close out a game with a 6.58 ERA

[atthehalf]

TOTALS


12:30 Twinkies/Red Leggins UNDER 9.5 Paddack/Martinez
1:00 Rox/Nats UNDER 9.5 Dollander/Williams
2:00 Brews/Cubs UNDER 8.5 Peralta/Tallon
2:00 Cardinals/Pale Hose UNDER 9 Fedde/Burke

[matt711]

I predict a few week Heater for you! Thanks for your knowledge and writeups!