Arizona ML (+190): Arizona should be legitimately competitive in this one. Jake Peavey has always been a bit worse in the daytime in his career, and at Petco in fact, and however he winds up doing today, a 7-inning shutout or a 6-inning, 3-run start, Yusmeiro Petit is entirely capable of matching him.
Arizona has a lineup and bullpen similar in capability to those of San Diego, and this game is likely to be close and to go down to the wire, and Arizona has significant value as such a big underdog IMO.
Cincinnati/Washington under (9 +100): It's been tough for these two teams to reach double digits in scoring at RFK so far in this series, and that should be the case again tonight, despite the shaky pitching involved.
The two no-name starters are keeping this total from dropping, and it's still too high IMO. Mike Bacsik has been OK this year, and particularly recently, and his crafty lefty style combined with the dimensions of RFK is a good recipe for keeping the production of the lefty power hitter-laden Cincinnati lineup modest.
On the other side, first-time starter Phil Dumatrait may or may not be ready to excel at the big league level, but he's had a reasonably quality season at Triple A this year, and this game will cut him considerable leeway if his nerves are OK.
Add it all up and I think there is modest but solid value with the under.
Atlanta ML (-145): Atlanta is really starting to roll, having blasted Houston 24-7 so far in this series, and I don't think those results have been fluky.
Jo-Jo Reyes clearly has talent despite having struggled so far in the majors, and he may well bounce back with a decent start here.
Woody Williams on the other side doesn't offer too much protection for Houston, and Atlanta should always be poised to score every innings against him.
Additionally, Atlanta's liability of a bullpen will be in as strong a position as it gets for this game. Add it all up, and Atlanta should be a bigger favorite than they currently are IMO.
Angels/Oakland under (9 -115): Chad Gaudin is not the most solid of starters, but the Angels are having problems with power right now, and going to McAfee is only likely to exacerbate that. With the return of Huston Street, Oakland now has a decent bullpen, so the Angels' scoring prospects for this game are looking pretty modest.
On the other side, Oakland isn't sending out a formidable lineup right now, and if Joe Saunders is on his game, Oakland won't likely be able to push him into a bad start in any way.
All in all, this is likely to be one of those games where the runs trickle in, but without any big innings, so I think there is value with the total set at 9.
Arizona has a lineup and bullpen similar in capability to those of San Diego, and this game is likely to be close and to go down to the wire, and Arizona has significant value as such a big underdog IMO.
Cincinnati/Washington under (9 +100): It's been tough for these two teams to reach double digits in scoring at RFK so far in this series, and that should be the case again tonight, despite the shaky pitching involved.
The two no-name starters are keeping this total from dropping, and it's still too high IMO. Mike Bacsik has been OK this year, and particularly recently, and his crafty lefty style combined with the dimensions of RFK is a good recipe for keeping the production of the lefty power hitter-laden Cincinnati lineup modest.
On the other side, first-time starter Phil Dumatrait may or may not be ready to excel at the big league level, but he's had a reasonably quality season at Triple A this year, and this game will cut him considerable leeway if his nerves are OK.
Add it all up and I think there is modest but solid value with the under.
Atlanta ML (-145): Atlanta is really starting to roll, having blasted Houston 24-7 so far in this series, and I don't think those results have been fluky.
Jo-Jo Reyes clearly has talent despite having struggled so far in the majors, and he may well bounce back with a decent start here.
Woody Williams on the other side doesn't offer too much protection for Houston, and Atlanta should always be poised to score every innings against him.
Additionally, Atlanta's liability of a bullpen will be in as strong a position as it gets for this game. Add it all up, and Atlanta should be a bigger favorite than they currently are IMO.
Angels/Oakland under (9 -115): Chad Gaudin is not the most solid of starters, but the Angels are having problems with power right now, and going to McAfee is only likely to exacerbate that. With the return of Huston Street, Oakland now has a decent bullpen, so the Angels' scoring prospects for this game are looking pretty modest.
On the other side, Oakland isn't sending out a formidable lineup right now, and if Joe Saunders is on his game, Oakland won't likely be able to push him into a bad start in any way.
All in all, this is likely to be one of those games where the runs trickle in, but without any big innings, so I think there is value with the total set at 9.
