2* Rangers Team Total O 5 -115: Not really much analysis needed. Horacio Ramirez's road splits are just atrocious: 32 H in 15.2 IP, 13.21 ERA, 2.74 WHIP, .432 BAA. Ouch. Combine that with the fact another 90 degree day is expected in Arlington, where the ball typically carries extremely well in the summer, and the Rangers' should be in good position to put up a nice number against the M's tomorrow night.
1* Rangers -120: Ramirez's numbers factor largely into this play, but another factor is the resurgence of Kevin Millwood. Arguably the worst pitcher in the AL for much of the first half, Millwood's been outstanding his last six starts (3-2, 2.54 ERA).
1* Braves/Giants U 8 -120: Matt Cain's struggled a bit recently, but his stuff is too good for that trend to continue much longer. Despite a 10-11 career record at AT&T, he's pitched very well at home in 31 career starts (3.45 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .215 BAA). Smoltz has been his usual consistent self this season, and although Bonds has had success against Smoltz (19/64, 8 HR), he's the only member of SF's terrible offense who's hit him well. Aurillia, Durham, Feliz, Roberts, Vizquel and Winn are a combined 19/85 (.223) with 1 HR against Smoltz.
1* Tigers +100: Sure, Buehrle has great career numbers against the Tigers(11-7, 2.92), but those numbers are a bit skewed by how bad Detroit was as recently as a few years ago. Guillen (11/33), Monroe (11/27) and Magglio (7/12) have each had success against Buehrle. Andrew Miller's a future star and has pitched admirably this year, allowing 3 runs or fewer in six of his eight starts. Honestly, I don't really care who's pitching. I'll take Detroit over the trainwreck that is the ChiSox any day at even money.
Also leaning towards the Dodgers and the under, although I'll likely pass. I'd like to fade Dontrelle Willis and Colon, but I can't back Doug Davis laying wood, while Oakland's offense makes fading Colon, tempting as it may be, troublesome. If Colon gets hit hard tomorrow night against the A's anemic offense, I'll fade him the rest of the year, assuming he still has a spot in the rotation.
1* Rangers -120: Ramirez's numbers factor largely into this play, but another factor is the resurgence of Kevin Millwood. Arguably the worst pitcher in the AL for much of the first half, Millwood's been outstanding his last six starts (3-2, 2.54 ERA).
1* Braves/Giants U 8 -120: Matt Cain's struggled a bit recently, but his stuff is too good for that trend to continue much longer. Despite a 10-11 career record at AT&T, he's pitched very well at home in 31 career starts (3.45 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .215 BAA). Smoltz has been his usual consistent self this season, and although Bonds has had success against Smoltz (19/64, 8 HR), he's the only member of SF's terrible offense who's hit him well. Aurillia, Durham, Feliz, Roberts, Vizquel and Winn are a combined 19/85 (.223) with 1 HR against Smoltz.
1* Tigers +100: Sure, Buehrle has great career numbers against the Tigers(11-7, 2.92), but those numbers are a bit skewed by how bad Detroit was as recently as a few years ago. Guillen (11/33), Monroe (11/27) and Magglio (7/12) have each had success against Buehrle. Andrew Miller's a future star and has pitched admirably this year, allowing 3 runs or fewer in six of his eight starts. Honestly, I don't really care who's pitching. I'll take Detroit over the trainwreck that is the ChiSox any day at even money.
Also leaning towards the Dodgers and the under, although I'll likely pass. I'd like to fade Dontrelle Willis and Colon, but I can't back Doug Davis laying wood, while Oakland's offense makes fading Colon, tempting as it may be, troublesome. If Colon gets hit hard tomorrow night against the A's anemic offense, I'll fade him the rest of the year, assuming he still has a spot in the rotation.
