I hate outsmarting myself. Here I tout Bedard as the most underrated pitcher in baseball for the past couple months and while I don’t have anything particular against Blanton, I’ve faded him with some success this year. So of course I take Blanton -106 against Bedard. What else would I do? Still won about half a unit because of the outrageous price tag on the Royals. A lot of musical overtones in the pitchers I am rolling with on Saturday.
Medium:
Giants (Lincecum) @ Brewers (Bush) Under 9 -120
The worry here would seem to be Bush getting rocked. Four things alleviate that concern:
1. He has been much stronger at home, both this year and throughout his career.
2. His recent form (5-1, 2.88 ERA, 1.19 WHIP)
2. He is facing an inept offense that will likely be without Bonds.
3. The current Giant hitters have had little to no success against him in the past:
Lincecum had a really bad start at Miller Park earlier this year, giving up 6 ER in 4 IP. But he only gave up five hits, so I’m not too worried about a repeat performance. His control and efficiency have picked up since Bochy threatened to remove him from the starting rotation after that game. In four starts since then, he has pitched 26.1 IP, given up 15 hits, 12 BB, and 4 total runs.
Braves -130 (Carlyle/Looper)
Here is rjt’s writeup, which basically says it all. The only thing I would add is that Carlyle challenges hitters, so it won’t be a walk parade, and I don’t think STL has the lineup, starter, or bullpen to be this short an underdog here.
Light:
Pirates +105 (Maholm/W-Rod)
Wandy Rodriguez as a road favorite with this lineup and bullpen behind him is a joke. He’s 1-6 with a 7.45 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and .312 BAA on the road this year. Maholm has been pitching better - he’s been either decent or good in his last 9 starts. If the Pirates can score 4 or 5 here - and against W-Rod, that would seem more likely than not - I like their chances.
White Sox +161 (Danks/Gabbard)
I wouldn’t be surprised if either team won this game 8-2. Danks is having a weird season, very hit or miss, but he has more overall potential than Gabbard, who has been for the most part doing it with smoke and mirrors this season. Even with an inferior bullpen and lineup, I think the White Sox are good to win this matchup at least two out of five times, which is more than enough to turn a profit at this line. Ortiz is likely out, so that’s a plus, but really this is a fade of a stumbling team and average pitcher laying an exorbitant price.
Royals +235 (JdlR/Verlander)
This just in. The Royals are playing well. They’re 19-13 recently, and they’ve got a pitcher who has fared well against the Tigers in his two starts against them. They also have a large bullpen advantage. Now, Verlander’s career numbers against KC make this only a small play, but I feel he is an overvalued pitcher in general, and particularly against what people perceive as a hapless team.
Strong leans - waiting on line movement, lineups, additional info, etc. in these games. May pass all of them again, as was the case Friday (luckily it seems, unless the Dodgers rally).
D’Backs
Nationals Over 8.5
Padres
Of course feel free to chime in opinions, tell me why I should play the leans or why I shouldn’t. I was impressed with some of the stuff posted yesterday. By the way, I don’t know how many of you read SI, but there is some very good stuff in this week’s issue, most notably an article detailing why Putz’s season is all-time impressive, and Reilly’s article on Bonds. It’s worth the $4 or whatever a single issue costs.
Medium:
Giants (Lincecum) @ Brewers (Bush) Under 9 -120
The worry here would seem to be Bush getting rocked. Four things alleviate that concern:
1. He has been much stronger at home, both this year and throughout his career.
2. His recent form (5-1, 2.88 ERA, 1.19 WHIP)
2. He is facing an inept offense that will likely be without Bonds.
3. The current Giant hitters have had little to no success against him in the past:
Aurilia 1-6, K, .167
Bonds 1-6, 2 K, .167
Durham 0-4, K, .000
Feliz 1-7, HR, 3 K, .143
Frandsen 1-4, .250
Molina 1-6, .167
Sweeney 0-1, .000
Vizquel 1-12, 3 K, .083
Winn 2-11, 3 K, .182
Total: 8-57, 1 XB hit, 13 K, .140 BAA.
Bonds 1-6, 2 K, .167
Durham 0-4, K, .000
Feliz 1-7, HR, 3 K, .143
Frandsen 1-4, .250
Molina 1-6, .167
Sweeney 0-1, .000
Vizquel 1-12, 3 K, .083
Winn 2-11, 3 K, .182
Total: 8-57, 1 XB hit, 13 K, .140 BAA.
Braves -130 (Carlyle/Looper)
Here is rjt’s writeup, which basically says it all. The only thing I would add is that Carlyle challenges hitters, so it won’t be a walk parade, and I don’t think STL has the lineup, starter, or bullpen to be this short an underdog here.
Light:
Pirates +105 (Maholm/W-Rod)
Wandy Rodriguez as a road favorite with this lineup and bullpen behind him is a joke. He’s 1-6 with a 7.45 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and .312 BAA on the road this year. Maholm has been pitching better - he’s been either decent or good in his last 9 starts. If the Pirates can score 4 or 5 here - and against W-Rod, that would seem more likely than not - I like their chances.
White Sox +161 (Danks/Gabbard)
I wouldn’t be surprised if either team won this game 8-2. Danks is having a weird season, very hit or miss, but he has more overall potential than Gabbard, who has been for the most part doing it with smoke and mirrors this season. Even with an inferior bullpen and lineup, I think the White Sox are good to win this matchup at least two out of five times, which is more than enough to turn a profit at this line. Ortiz is likely out, so that’s a plus, but really this is a fade of a stumbling team and average pitcher laying an exorbitant price.
Royals +235 (JdlR/Verlander)
This just in. The Royals are playing well. They’re 19-13 recently, and they’ve got a pitcher who has fared well against the Tigers in his two starts against them. They also have a large bullpen advantage. Now, Verlander’s career numbers against KC make this only a small play, but I feel he is an overvalued pitcher in general, and particularly against what people perceive as a hapless team.
Strong leans - waiting on line movement, lineups, additional info, etc. in these games. May pass all of them again, as was the case Friday (luckily it seems, unless the Dodgers rally).
D’Backs
Nationals Over 8.5
Padres
Of course feel free to chime in opinions, tell me why I should play the leans or why I shouldn’t. I was impressed with some of the stuff posted yesterday. By the way, I don’t know how many of you read SI, but there is some very good stuff in this week’s issue, most notably an article detailing why Putz’s season is all-time impressive, and Reilly’s article on Bonds. It’s worth the $4 or whatever a single issue costs.
