18-17, +4.26
1* Orioles (EB) @ Devil Rays (SK) 1st five innings Under - will post line tomorrow
These offenses have gone over the total the first two games, and while I think this one goes under, I don't trust the D'Rays pen enough to play the game under. But both starters are great. Kazmir bordered on unhittable at home last year, and facing an Oriole team that doesn't match up well with LHP, he should have a lot of success. Bedard is also a very good lefty, and he has owned Crawford in the past.
1* Halos -103 (JL/DH)
A lot of this is a history play, as Lackey's numbers against Oakland are sensational. I also think this is a nice rebound situation for the Angels, as they needed a day to recover from the beating they took in Boston. Now they should respond against Haren, who they have had a lot of success against in recent years.
1* Indians +125 (JS/KI)
Igawa was shelled in his first start at Yankee Stadium, and the nerves could get to him again here. He was good on the left coast, but that was against an A's offense that is anemic against LHP. The Indians aren't great against lefties either, but at least V-Mart is back. This is the only game of the series that the Indians have any real type of advantage, as Sowers is one of the guys I have loads of respect for, and he had success against NY last season. This is virtually a 50/50 game to me, and at +125, I am getting a nice overlay.
1* Red Sox (TW) @ Blue Jays (TO) Over 9.5 (-120)
I think one, if not both, of these pitchers get shelled tomorrow. I would like to back Boston here, but the line is a bit high, and, until they have some sort of success against Toronto, I really don't want to. Wakefield hasn't done well against Toronto in the past, and his early season success is supposedly due in large part to the humidity, which won't be in play here. Ohka hasn't been as good as I thought early, and while Boston hasn't been scoring on the road, they should get some against a soft righty and a depleted bullpen.
1* Twins +180 (CS/FH)
Well, we have an enormous pitching disadvantage here. Hernandez has been spectacular, giving up no runs in his first two starts, both stunningly impressive wins. But Silva has actually been really good to this point, carrying a 0.80 ERA after two starts. More importantly, we have a nice pricetag with a team that has every advantage besides starting pitching and homefield. And, Hernandez is, for all intents and purposes, a career .500 pitcher. While that record will obviously get a lot better in the upcoming years, I don't think he deserves to be this large a favorite against of the elite AL teams.
1* Orioles (EB) @ Devil Rays (SK) 1st five innings Under - will post line tomorrow
These offenses have gone over the total the first two games, and while I think this one goes under, I don't trust the D'Rays pen enough to play the game under. But both starters are great. Kazmir bordered on unhittable at home last year, and facing an Oriole team that doesn't match up well with LHP, he should have a lot of success. Bedard is also a very good lefty, and he has owned Crawford in the past.
1* Halos -103 (JL/DH)
A lot of this is a history play, as Lackey's numbers against Oakland are sensational. I also think this is a nice rebound situation for the Angels, as they needed a day to recover from the beating they took in Boston. Now they should respond against Haren, who they have had a lot of success against in recent years.
1* Indians +125 (JS/KI)
Igawa was shelled in his first start at Yankee Stadium, and the nerves could get to him again here. He was good on the left coast, but that was against an A's offense that is anemic against LHP. The Indians aren't great against lefties either, but at least V-Mart is back. This is the only game of the series that the Indians have any real type of advantage, as Sowers is one of the guys I have loads of respect for, and he had success against NY last season. This is virtually a 50/50 game to me, and at +125, I am getting a nice overlay.
1* Red Sox (TW) @ Blue Jays (TO) Over 9.5 (-120)
I think one, if not both, of these pitchers get shelled tomorrow. I would like to back Boston here, but the line is a bit high, and, until they have some sort of success against Toronto, I really don't want to. Wakefield hasn't done well against Toronto in the past, and his early season success is supposedly due in large part to the humidity, which won't be in play here. Ohka hasn't been as good as I thought early, and while Boston hasn't been scoring on the road, they should get some against a soft righty and a depleted bullpen.
1* Twins +180 (CS/FH)
Well, we have an enormous pitching disadvantage here. Hernandez has been spectacular, giving up no runs in his first two starts, both stunningly impressive wins. But Silva has actually been really good to this point, carrying a 0.80 ERA after two starts. More importantly, we have a nice pricetag with a team that has every advantage besides starting pitching and homefield. And, Hernandez is, for all intents and purposes, a career .500 pitcher. While that record will obviously get a lot better in the upcoming years, I don't think he deserves to be this large a favorite against of the elite AL teams.
