Twins, Yankees ALDS Game 2 Preview
The Minnesota Twins need a win before going home to Metrodome if they're going to have a shot in this best-of-5 series, and New York Yankees bats aim to prevent that from happening.
This is a must-win for the Twins, right? Surely there's no way Minnesota can win this ALDS without leaving New York with a win over the Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS.
I don't see it happening, but there are two things bothering me: the weather and the day off for New York. More on the weather later.
After shaking off some early rust in Game 1 on Wednesday that saw them trailing 2-0 early, the Yankees rallied for a 7-2 win to avoid a first game embarrassment. Derek Jeter fueled the offense with a homer and three trips across the plate, but it was Alex Rodriguez' two RBI that really provided the final comfort margin. C.C. Sabathia was good enough and the bullpen closed it out just like Joe Girardi would have scripted it.
After failures in their last three ALDS (2005-07) and missing the playoffs entirely last season, the pressure was squarely on A-Rod, C.C. and the rest of the Yankees on Wednesday. Now after winning that game to get their postseason off to a good start, you have to winder if having Thursday off will interrupt their early momentum. There was zero pressure on the Twins after their Game 163 on Tuesday. Certainly the betting public didn't think so as the chalk opened thick and then only got fatter during the day on Wednesday.
Now the pressure remains on New York but also moves to Minnesota. And the line has already moved from an opening around -275, -280 up to -300 and over at several shops. The total opened at 10 and has stayed there so far.
The starting pitcher lines for Friday's contest are pretty even with one big exception. Righthanders Nick Blackburn for the Twins and A.J. Burnett or the Yankees each made 33 starts in the 2009 regular season. Blackburn tossed 205.2 innings while Burnett worked 207. Blackburn came home with a 4.03 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, Burnett recorded 4.04 and 1.40 in those two columns. Each hurler allowed 25 homers.
Despite those statistical similarities, the difference between the two is the Twins were 16-17 in Blackburn's 33 outings while the Yankees went 21-12 in Burnett's 33 mound assignments. Stop if you're thinking that disparity in W-L records was due to Minnesota batters not supporting Blackburn while New York pounded the ball when Burnett was on the mound.
The Yankees actually didn't support Burnett as well as they did the rest of the starters this year, averaging 5.45 runs in A.J.'s starts and 5.69 in those started by others. The Twins also scored less for Blackburn than they did for other starters, but not by that much (4.96 in his starts, 5.06 otherwise).
In the end the difference is the Yankees offense, and the group as a whole loves to face Blackburn who has never personally gathered a win against New York with Minnesota 1-3 in his four starts against them (0-2 in NY). Overall, the hitters available for the Yanks tonight have a .955 OPS in 87 plate appearances vs. Blackburn, with Mark Teixeira 6-for-6 lifetime with a homer.
Couple that with Burnett pitching New York to a pair of wins over the Twins in the '09 regular season (13 IP, 4 ER) and the Minnesota lineup owning a .648 OPS in 145 plate appearances, and I've heard enough. Yankees runline for me (-1½, -140).
STARTING PITCHERS
ALDS Game 2, Fri, Oct 9, 6:07 p.m. (ET): Nick Blackburn (16-17, 4.03) vs. A.J. Burnett (21-12, 4.04)
UMPIRE
Chuck Meriwether is in line for plate duty in this one, and the Nashville native comes in with a 20-14 edge to home teams with an 18-16 O/U tally. This game opened at 10 for the total, and Meriwether has only called one game this season above that with the result being an Under.
The last time he was behind the plate in an LDS game was Game 3 of the NLDS in 2007 when the Rockies finished off their sweep of the Phillies with a 2-1 triumph.
WEATHER
The forecast is not good but has been changing during the day Thursday so keep an eye out for updates. Right now (Thursday 9:30 p.m. ET) the call is for a 40%-60% chance of rain in New York on Friday, increasing as the days go on with a low-to-mid 60s first pitch temp and winds out of the West 5-10 MPH (out to CF). I'm very tempted to take the Over it this number somehow drops to 9½.
NOTE: The W-L records shown for starting pitchers are their team's W-L mark when they start games. Statistical sources for this article were Retrosheet.org, Baseball-Reference.com and ESPN.com and of course, S-BEE-R-dot-com!
The Minnesota Twins need a win before going home to Metrodome if they're going to have a shot in this best-of-5 series, and New York Yankees bats aim to prevent that from happening.
This is a must-win for the Twins, right? Surely there's no way Minnesota can win this ALDS without leaving New York with a win over the Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS.
I don't see it happening, but there are two things bothering me: the weather and the day off for New York. More on the weather later.
After shaking off some early rust in Game 1 on Wednesday that saw them trailing 2-0 early, the Yankees rallied for a 7-2 win to avoid a first game embarrassment. Derek Jeter fueled the offense with a homer and three trips across the plate, but it was Alex Rodriguez' two RBI that really provided the final comfort margin. C.C. Sabathia was good enough and the bullpen closed it out just like Joe Girardi would have scripted it.
After failures in their last three ALDS (2005-07) and missing the playoffs entirely last season, the pressure was squarely on A-Rod, C.C. and the rest of the Yankees on Wednesday. Now after winning that game to get their postseason off to a good start, you have to winder if having Thursday off will interrupt their early momentum. There was zero pressure on the Twins after their Game 163 on Tuesday. Certainly the betting public didn't think so as the chalk opened thick and then only got fatter during the day on Wednesday.
Now the pressure remains on New York but also moves to Minnesota. And the line has already moved from an opening around -275, -280 up to -300 and over at several shops. The total opened at 10 and has stayed there so far.
The starting pitcher lines for Friday's contest are pretty even with one big exception. Righthanders Nick Blackburn for the Twins and A.J. Burnett or the Yankees each made 33 starts in the 2009 regular season. Blackburn tossed 205.2 innings while Burnett worked 207. Blackburn came home with a 4.03 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, Burnett recorded 4.04 and 1.40 in those two columns. Each hurler allowed 25 homers.
Despite those statistical similarities, the difference between the two is the Twins were 16-17 in Blackburn's 33 outings while the Yankees went 21-12 in Burnett's 33 mound assignments. Stop if you're thinking that disparity in W-L records was due to Minnesota batters not supporting Blackburn while New York pounded the ball when Burnett was on the mound.
The Yankees actually didn't support Burnett as well as they did the rest of the starters this year, averaging 5.45 runs in A.J.'s starts and 5.69 in those started by others. The Twins also scored less for Blackburn than they did for other starters, but not by that much (4.96 in his starts, 5.06 otherwise).
In the end the difference is the Yankees offense, and the group as a whole loves to face Blackburn who has never personally gathered a win against New York with Minnesota 1-3 in his four starts against them (0-2 in NY). Overall, the hitters available for the Yanks tonight have a .955 OPS in 87 plate appearances vs. Blackburn, with Mark Teixeira 6-for-6 lifetime with a homer.
Couple that with Burnett pitching New York to a pair of wins over the Twins in the '09 regular season (13 IP, 4 ER) and the Minnesota lineup owning a .648 OPS in 145 plate appearances, and I've heard enough. Yankees runline for me (-1½, -140).
STARTING PITCHERS
ALDS Game 2, Fri, Oct 9, 6:07 p.m. (ET): Nick Blackburn (16-17, 4.03) vs. A.J. Burnett (21-12, 4.04)
UMPIRE
Chuck Meriwether is in line for plate duty in this one, and the Nashville native comes in with a 20-14 edge to home teams with an 18-16 O/U tally. This game opened at 10 for the total, and Meriwether has only called one game this season above that with the result being an Under.
The last time he was behind the plate in an LDS game was Game 3 of the NLDS in 2007 when the Rockies finished off their sweep of the Phillies with a 2-1 triumph.
WEATHER
The forecast is not good but has been changing during the day Thursday so keep an eye out for updates. Right now (Thursday 9:30 p.m. ET) the call is for a 40%-60% chance of rain in New York on Friday, increasing as the days go on with a low-to-mid 60s first pitch temp and winds out of the West 5-10 MPH (out to CF). I'm very tempted to take the Over it this number somehow drops to 9½.
NOTE: The W-L records shown for starting pitchers are their team's W-L mark when they start games. Statistical sources for this article were Retrosheet.org, Baseball-Reference.com and ESPN.com and of course, S-BEE-R-dot-com!
