Riding Starting Pitchers?

[MoB21]

I am curious if anyone has taken a pitcher and rode him throughout the entire season. I am thinking this can be an easy way to make $$ and I am considering the following pitchers based on 06' records:
Johan Santana 06' Record: 19-6
Chien-Ming Wang 06' Record: 19-6
Roy Halladay 06' Record: 16-5
Obviously if you took any of these 3 pitchers the entire way you are guarenteed profit. Has anyone tried this?

[Razz]

The problem is, even though their records are 19-6 or whatever, their teams record might be more like 21-11 once you factor in no decisions. Then you consider that those guys average being about -180 every time they start, and at the end of the year, you basically break even.
All that assumes they continue having great seasons. If they lapse and go like 17-10, you might get buried.

[onlooker]

Check the record of the team when so and so starts. Like Razz said, you got to factor in the no decisions.

I wouldnt recommend this.

[Jay Edgar]

Go to covers.com and do what is generally known as "research."

The team pages there list starting pitcher, closing moneyline, and result.

It might take all of 15 minutes to figure out what a flat bet on every Santana start, or Halliday start, etc., would have netted you.

I have spent about a month on it and it is my very strong opinion that baseball lines are dramatically overadjusted for starting pitching.

Very few marquee starters give their team as much as an additional 10% chance to win the game.

I think the only part of baseball that is substantially profitable for bookmakers is what they take from bettors who back the top starters no matter the price.

[bigboydan]

I seen people ride Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, and even Pedro is there prime, and seen them lose there asses doing that.

How many times have you seen a bullpen blow a stud pitcher pitch a masterpiece going 7.5 or 8 strong innings. I have seen that happen plenty of times over the years.

Lets take Johan Santana for example. Go back and look at how many games the Twins bullpen blew, or even no run support was given in the early part of the season (first month or two). I think Razz said it best in regards to laying that type of wood is more often than not will burn your bankroll up really badly.

[cobra_king]

Agree with all that's been said above....it's a money eater. The only way this could possibly be successful is if you have an opinion on a young up and comer and get on the bandwagon early enough before the price on him is adjusted. But otherwise it would be impossible to make money just riding a "star" pitcher.