5 computer picks for thursday 7-02-09

chubber911 · 07-02-09, 11:52 AM

I ask because I also have created a program that recommends wagers to make on the ML.
The percentage listed in each pick, is that the confidence level in how often those teams will win the wager? Are you betting more units on games where your program is very confident?

Also, what kind of stats are you using where your software is able to predict a team would win 85% of the time? The biggest blowout my program has predicted was for a team to win ~67% of the time. It's not very common for my program to predict a team will have much higher than a 60% chance of winning.

Not that I doubt you, just curious.

junkman773 · 07-02-09, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by chubber911

I ask because I also have created a program that recommends wagers to make on the ML.
The percentage listed in each pick, is that the confidence level in how often those teams will win the wager? Are you betting more units on games where your program is very confident?

Also, what kind of stats are you using where your software is able to predict a team would win 85% of the time? The biggest blowout my program has predicted was for a team to win ~67% of the time. It's not very common for my program to predict a team will have much higher than a 60% chance of winning.

Not that I doubt you, just curious.

Sorry just checked back here here is some of the stuff that goes into the projections.

Scoring vs conf. home and away
ERA home and away
Home and Away pitching records
Over all runs scored
home and away runs scored
home and away runs given up
W/L HOME AND AWAY
Streaks
starting pitchers
bull pens.
Number of days data (right now I use 30 days) and adjust as the season goes on

As far as the % this the percent that my team would win if the game was played 100 times

I do not change my betting unless the % is great than 90%

Last season I had 7 plays rated at 95% or better they were 7-0 and 20 plays rated 90% or better and they were 17-3 (these were posted at another forum and out of respect for SBR I wil not name it)

This year I have had 3 plays at 90% 3-0 no plays at 95% so far

The reason I may come up with a higher % is the importance I place on things vs. how important you think they are.

What is really important is not so much the % but do your plays win at what ever % you have them out over a season?

For the most part mine do.

Hope this helped and sorry again I mainly post and do not check back busy working on the next days card.

Good Luck

Junk

woodman663 · 07-02-09, 05:05 PM

Thanks for sharing, it will be interesting to see how well this system does. I'm also on SF and LAA, so I hope your system's percentages are right.

Keep us posted.

junkman773 · 07-03-09, 11:17 AM

3-2 for a small profit

sadler00 · 07-03-09, 12:27 PM

Originally posted by junkman773

3-2 for a small profit

junkman, what do you like today?