Dapper Dan Picks - MLB '17

Smutbucket · 04-02-17, 12:38 AM

4/2/17
Yankees (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
There are plenty of reasons to like the Yankees in the Rays home opener. Archer struggled early in the season last year, especially against the Yankees going 0-3 and at home going 3-10 in 2016. The Yankees starting lineup has hit him well in the past too with a .424 wOBA and a 1.07 OPS. Tanaka has been the opposite, in his career he is 6-0 against the Rays, including 3 wins at the Trop. April has consistently been his strongest month over the last few years, and the Rays starting lineup has only hit Tanaka for a .293 wOBA, a .206 AVG, and .689 OPS. Quite a stark contrast from the Yankees lineup vs Archer. Archer is also playing in his first game with new catcher Derek Norris. The Bullpens are another large factor that favors the Yankees in this match-up as the Rays had one of the worst bullpens last season and made virtually no notable off-season changes. Take Yankees for 1 unit and sit back and watch the rest of the games starting off up a unit on the season.

Smutbucket · 04-03-17, 11:54 AM

4/3/17

Tigers (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Verlander is looking much improved after last year as we saw a slight increase in velo in his fb and slider. His location has been excellent and his plate discipline numbers are returning to his 2011-12 form. He posted his highest swing strike % of his career at 12%. Quintana on the other hand looks to be trending downwards. Hitters are making more contact, swinging at less pitches outside the zone, and more at ones in the zone, he sported his lowest swinging strike% of his career at 7.6% last year. He abandoned his cutter last season and is a 3 pitch pitcher who throws his FB%, 66.5% of the time. A 10%+ increase from years past. He may have one of the better fastballs in the league with a 1.35 wFB/c but his other two pitchers are very below average. He is less effective against Righties and Detroit has an all righty lineup for this matchup. Their team is also one of the better hitting lefty teams with a .331 wOBA and 106 wRC+. The DET lineup is very familiar with Quintana and have more than 2x as many plate appearances against Quintana than CHW vs Verlander.

Rockies (-122) Risking 1.22 units to win 1 units
Im not buying into Junior Guerra's 9-3 season last year. I think its more attributed into hitters not having seen him or having much of a scouting report. He was skating by with a low zone% and first pitch strike % and getting lots of hitters to chase. He's a 3 pitch pitcher that relies on his split finger fastball to put people away throwing it 25% of the time. This rockies team is very effective at hitting righties and even more so the split finger fastball, especially DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado and Mark Reynolds. Jon Gray on the other hand seems to be improving after his first full season. He added a slow curveball to his repertoire and increased his SwStrike% by 2% sitting at 12.1% now. Away from coors field is when he really gets to open up his pitching selection and I think we will see a big improvement from last years 3-9 away record now that he has had time to refine his new pitches. His velo's also increased from 2015. Last year he struggled a lot in his first two games but they were at home with the two teams hitting over .500 BABIP against him. He settled down on his 3rd and 4th games on the road and I expect a good outing with lots of Strikeouts against a Milwaukee team who has only 18 plate appearances against him, (8 SO, .059 AVG, .087 wOBA)

Smutbucket · 04-04-17, 01:04 PM

Rebet PPD game for today.

4/4/17
Tigers (-129) Risking 1.29 units to win 1 units

Smutbucket · 04-04-17, 01:04 PM

Season YTD: 1-1 -.05 units

Smutbucket · 04-05-17, 10:21 AM

Season YTD: 2-1 +.95 units

Lol baseball is so random, I couldn't help but laugh after seeing Piscotty get hit with the ball 3 times in one inning....

Nice one for today fellas, may be a late addition later today still working on some things....

4/5/17

Seattle (+103) Risking 1 unit to win 1.03 units
James Paxton may be the most improved pitcher coming into 2017. Despite posting a 6-7 record and struggling early on the season, he made MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS as the season progressed and his stats reflected so. He struggled in Spring last season and was sent to the minors for the beginning of the season. There he tweaked his mechanics, dropped his release point by nearly a foot, and his velocity and command dramatically improved. His fastball increased by almost 3 mph, now sitting at 96.8 (he was able to hit 99 mph on 54 occasions also), he developed his cutter and is now using it 10% more than years past. He posted his highest SwingStrike% at 11.7%. In August and September last year, he recorded 8 SO per BB. I think he will be a real breakout star this season and you will probably see him being bet a lot in this thread. Charlie Morton starts for Houston, and its quite a surprise he's still in the MLB. He tore his hamstring last season after only 17 innings last year. Throughout his career he has been significantly worse against Lefties and Seattle has few key hard hitting lefties including Cano, Seager, and Martin. Tempted to take this for more than a unit. But we'll remain conservative and just do a solid 1 unit bet.

Smutbucket · 04-06-17, 01:50 PM

Sorry fellas no time for writeup today

Giants (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units

Season YTD: 2-2 -.05 units

Smutbucket · 04-07-17, 02:27 PM

4/7/17

Rays FF (+104) Risking 1 unit to win 1.04 unit
Lirano is trending downward as batters are realizing this guy has major control issues only hitting the zone 39% of his pitches. He's a 3 pitch pitcher, but his slider and changeup are essentially averaging the same speed. He throws his fastball 51% of the time and averages 92.8, and his other 2 pitches he averages 85.5 mph, not giving much fluctuation in his pitch velos. Tampa starters in limited outings sport a .330 wOBA against him. Andriese is one of the more deceptive pitchers according to ZoneSwing % - OutsideZoneSwing % stats, ranking 3rd at 27%. He is very good at home at the Trop and is entering his 3rd year in the big leagues with a nice variety of pitches. Taking the 1st five as Im tired of getting burned late in games especially with this TB bullpen.

Mets/Marlins FF Under 4 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Both teams are familiar with each others pitchers. Both teams have hit under a .270 wOBA against the other. Neither team has very potent bats and I expect this game to stay under. Again doing FF because of Miamis bullpen.

Smutbucket · 04-08-17, 12:25 PM

yesterday results : 1-1 -.11 units

4/8/17
Orioles (-105) Risking 1.05 unit to win 1 unit
Gausman despite having some control issues looked good in his opener. He's seemed to make some changes in the offseason as his slider now is almost 6 mph faster than years past and has a lot more vertical movement. He has an effective fastball and splitter but was missing a 3rd nasty put away pitch to compliment the other 2. If his new and improved slider continues he could be an elite pitcher this season. He has already given the yankees trouble in the past and expect the trend to continue if he pitches like he did in the opener. Tanaka on the other hand looked awful. Despite being 6-0 against the Rays in years past, he gave up 7 runs in 2.2 innings. All his pitches were easily predictable (57% Z-O%) and they werent getting the type of movement they were in years past and as a result they got crushed.

Atlanta (+124) Risking 1 units to win 1.24 units
Were backing the braves here on the road as I see some solid edges in this matchup. Kuhl is nothing special, a 3 pitch predictable (42% Z-0%) pitcher, with average speeds. On the other side we have Dickey, who although has been trending downwards has some favorable factors in this matchup. The weather should be beneficial to his knuckler in a pitchers park that doesn't allow many HR's (0.88 under league average of 1). The Pirates have not seen a knuckle-ball pitcher almost at all the last few seasons so they may take time to adjust to their new NL opponent. Think we have good odds here and take the Braves at + money.

Smutbucket · 04-10-17, 10:30 AM

4/8 results: 1-1 + 0 units

Season results: 4-5 -1.22 units

This ones an easy banger fellas. Hop on it now while you can. Might add a play later just locked this one in

4/10
Rockies FF -.5 (-120) Risking 2.4 units to win 2 units
Jared Cosart is the worst pitcher in the MLB. He has 2 pitches. That is all.

Smutbucket · 04-10-17, 02:26 PM

Adding:

Mets -1 RL(-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units

No coincidences · 04-10-17, 09:26 PM

Cosart throwing a shutout at Coors.

I've literally seen it all now.

Smutbucket · 04-11-17, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Cosart throwing a shutout at Coors.

I've literally seen it all now.

Ya he had a few new looks that was throwing off the rockies. he came out in the 3rd inning throwing all changeup and curveballs and was hitting everything. plus all the DPs.....

sorry for late post was out playing ball and got stuck on the courts winnings

think I might add a late one just finishing writeup

4/11/17

Atlanta/Miami Over 8.5 (+105) Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Miami is very familiar with Bartolo and even though he's a model for command I think the Marlins should still be able to put up atleast 5 in this game. Bartolo throws his 89 mph heater 90% of the time and these are major league hitters. Straily on the other side has struggled with his command. He did not even record a strikeout in his first game against the Nats and throughout his career he his historically predictable sporting one of the highest Z-O swing %'s. Last year Atlanta knocked him around putting up 6 Earned Runs on him in 4.1 innings. Atlanta bats are slightly improved with some additions this season and expect this game to go over.

Smutbucket · 04-11-17, 06:10 PM

Adding:

Texas (+105) Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 unit
I was hating on hamels early last season but he proved me wrong. Literally every split for this game is favorable for Hamels. Night Game, Away, in April, in Angels Stadium, historically he has been lights out. Even though texas has been struggling and Angels have been hot I expect the roles to reverse as I see Texas as a better hitting team and the better pitcher in this game.

Smutbucket · 04-12-17, 04:04 PM

Argh. cant catch a break. always forget to do first 5's....

Yesterday results: 1-1 +.05 units
Season results: 5-7 -3.57 units

4/12/17
CWS +1.5 RL (+105) Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units

Smutbucket · 04-13-17, 11:57 AM

yesterday : 1-0 +1.05 units

4/13/17
Cubs (-124) Risking 1.24 units to win 1 units
Cubs are one of the best hitting lefty teams while the dodgers are THE WORST. Anderson is one of my favorite pitchers, at least back from his oakland days although I havent watched him pitch in a while. Ill take this number with these two teams all day. Hopefully its not a trap.

No coincidences · 04-13-17, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

yesterday : 1-0 +1.05 units

4/13/17
Cubs (-124) Risking 1.24 units to win 1 units
Cubs are one of the best hitting lefty teams while the dodgers are THE WORST. Anderson is one of my favorite pitchers, at least back from his oakland days although I havent watched him pitch in a while. Ill take this number with these two teams all day. Hopefully its not a trap.

This line is crazy. Cubs should be -145 minimum.

Smutbucket · 04-13-17, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

This line is crazy. Cubs should be -145 minimum.

Ya no kidding and you see this bluejays line.

bookies are just begging you to take the orioles....

gonna probably lay off as my brain is

from looking at these absurd lines and will call it a day up 1 unit happy...slowly but surely...

No coincidences · 04-13-17, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

Ya no kidding and you see this bluejays line.

bookies are just begging you to take the orioles....

gonna probably lay off as my brain is

from looking at these absurd lines and will call it a day up 1 unit happy...slowly but surely...

Exactly. Nice hit on the Cubs.

Smutbucket · 04-14-17, 09:57 AM

Yesterday: 1-0 +1

Season YTD: 7-7 -1.52 units

Smutbucket · 04-14-17, 04:57 PM

No Writeups Today, Sorry Fellas. Rare 3 games today thanks to some situational angles that arose.

4/14/17
Mets/Fish FF Under 4 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Brewers (+108) Risking 1 unit to win 1.08 units
Rays (+115) Risking 1 unit to win 1.15 units

CappinTerp · 04-14-17, 05:04 PM

Get a sweep !...if 2 out of 3....with ya on Brewers and Rays.................................... ......................................BO L

Smutbucket · 04-15-17, 02:42 PM

Were Streaking fellas, thats 5 in a row! and were officially back in the green

Yesterday: 2-0-1 +2.23 units
Season YTD: 9-7 +.71 units

4/15/17
Royals (+110) Risking 1 unit to win 1.1 units
Shoemaker has struggled at Kauffman stadiumn with 2.657 WHIP in 3 started games and only 11.2 innings. He also notoriosly struggles in April and has a Road ERA 1.8+ pts higher than his home ERA. His heatmaps for this season in 2 games show hes had trouble keeping the ball low in the zone. This will be Karns's first home game with his new team. Although his stuff is average and no eye-popping numbers his heatmaps show he has been good controling the ball low in the zone this season. He did a good job suppressing a potent Houston offense in his last start. Royals were the 6th best team at hitting the Split Finger last year, which accounted for 36% of Shoemakers pitches last season.

Smutbucket · 04-16-17, 12:05 PM

Yesterday: 1-0 +1.1 units
Season YTD: 10-7 +1.81 units

4/16/17
Texas (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Back on Hamels, last time we had a BP collapse to cost us our Hamels win. Don't think that will happen this game as well as we have the BP advantage this time around as SEA's been horrid and has given up a 2nd worst 28 earned runs and league worse .333 BAA. I used to be a big fan of Iwakuma, but his stuff this year has reason for concern. His pitches across the board are at least 2 mph slower, and his cutter even almost 4 MPH slower than years past. His FB is sitting at 85mph. Although his velocity charts show this is typical for him early on the season, its never been this bad. Correlating with this trend he has been much worse, especially in the last 2 seasons, in April. Hamels has been the opposite and great in April as we know as I spoke a lot about him in my last writeup we selected Texas. Texas pulls out a win and expect them to start trending upwards.

Oak/Hou Under 7.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Charlie Morton, to my surprise has reinvented himself and has some big potential this season. His fastball is 5 mph faster (sitting at 95) then he was in 2012. He abandoned his slider and added an effective cutter last season to his arsenal. His pitches have a wide range of speeds and his changeup has been particularly effective this season. On the mound for the A's we have new emerging star, Cotton. I think the fact that the game is a "pick 'em" is a good indicator of his stuff. The way Astros have been hitting the ball anyone should be hesitant about taking an under against them but in an Oakland ballpark, Ill take my chances with these two on the mound

Smutbucket · 04-17-17, 02:27 PM

Yesterday Results: 0-1 -1.11 units with 1 game PPD called off

Sure lets bring in Sam Dyson with a 24 ERA and a 1 run lead even though hes had two save opportunities so far in this short season and blown them both and see what happens....oh shit he blew another one? who would have guessed? fuk me

no writeups, yesterday pissed me off too much

4/17/17
Houston -1 RL (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units

No coincidences · 04-17-17, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

Yesterday Results: 0-1 -1.11 units with 1 game PPD called off

Sure lets bring in Sam Dyson with a 24 ERA and a 1 run lead even though hes had two save opportunities so far in this short season and blown them both and see what happens....oh shit he blew another one? who would have guessed? fuk me

Just unbelievable.

Louisvillekid1 · 04-17-17, 04:24 PM

Enjoy the reads, gl

Smutbucket · 04-18-17, 05:44 PM

yesterday: 1-0 +1 units

Thanks lkid

4/18/17

Rays First Five (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
This is a bit more if an intuitive contrarian pick as old trends point to a detroit win, but there's reason for me to like the rays here. Fulmers stuff isnt very tricky, its pretty straightforward, 3 pitch pitcher without much varying speeds. His Z-0% has been in the 40's since he has been a big leaguer, very predictable of a 3 pitch pitcher who relies on his FB 60% of the time. His location and his ability to paint the corner has been his strongest asset and has led him to a strong WL record and he had been consistently undervalued by bookies. Last year he manhandled the rays twice pitching for 7 innings in both games and racking up 21 strikeouts and allowing only 1 earned run. Andriese I have already talked about, and how hes one of the most deceptive pitchers in the league according to Z-O%.Lets take the FF and avoid another late inning lost. The line is screaming to take the tigers so lets go the opposite way.

White Sox (+180) Risking .5 units to win .9 units
Severino is basically just a FB/SL pitcher with some high velos. He uses a change up but rarely and its almost 90 mph. Last year he got roughed up pretty hard giving up 7 Runs in 2.2 inning in yankee stadium. No reason not to take this soley on value this season. Miggy atleast has four pitches, including a splitter than the yankees bats struggle with.LY he pitched two games against the yanks giving up a total of 3 Earned Runs over 11.2 innings and giving up 10 hits. This play has a lot of value I believe and lets hope they pull out the win. White Sox have also have quietly have had the best bullpen in the league.

Smutbucket · 04-18-17, 05:48 PM

oops Forgot adding CWS RL too

Adding:
CWS +1.5 (-125) Risking .63 units to win .5 units

No coincidences · 04-18-17, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

oops Forgot adding CWS RL too

Adding:
CWS +1.5 (-125) Risking .63 units to win .5 units

On it, too. Wildly inflated number. Let's get it.

Smutbucket · 04-18-17, 10:21 PM

3-0 +2.4 units

Season YTD: 14-8 +4.1 units

Smutbucket · 04-19-17, 07:33 PM

4/19/17

Dbacks (-129) Risking .65 units to win .5 units
Chacin's plate discipline numbers are reason for concern thus far this season. He's sporting the 3rd highest contact % at 88, including an 80% outside of the zone. His heatmaps show that he has almost no differentiation between Lefties and Righties, which is why he has always struggles against Lefties as he cant seem to find a way to pitch to them outside and away. He abandoned his cutter this season as it was his worst ineffective pitch but now all his other pitches are more predictable and are getting hammered. His Swinging strike % is a league worst under 5%. Although this Arizona team doesnt have a bunch of lefties, I expect their bats to take full advantage of this known issue with Chacin. Their lineup as it is hitting .403 wOBA in 32 PA. We know what we are going to get with veteran greinke, his stuff is underwhelming be he knows how to locate the ball to get contact and outs. He's sporting an almost 11% swinging strike % even though facing 3 tough opponents thus far. He's been living outside the zone so far this season only hitting the zone on 38%, which should work to our favor against the padres who sport some of the highest swing%, outside zone swing %, and swinging strike %. Padres Bullpen is also pretty overworked the last few days. Only a half unit as the contrarian observation tower warns to tread with caution on this one.

Smutbucket · 04-20-17, 12:07 AM

Days results 0-1 -.65 units

Whenever I have a play that goes against "PairOfFive's" contrarian philosophy, its sure enough a loss. Note to the message board for future reminder. Dating back since 2008 Im like 0-10 on these

Smutbucket · 04-20-17, 04:17 PM

May add another tonight

4/20
Brewers (+112) Risking 1 unit to win 1.12 units
These two teams are trending in the opposite directions according to batting stats. Brewers have been surging lately, ranked 4th in wOBA and 9th in wRC+. While Cardinals are ranking 29th in wRC+ and wOBA. They havent scored more than 3 RUNS in the last 6 games aganst some average pitching. Although Davies is currently sporting a 8.79 ERA its been against some tough competition. His cutter has been very effective and he's been inducing a lot of soft contact at 28.8%. He faced STL 3 times last season and had solid outings pitching for 21.2 innings giving up 15 hits, 4 earned runs and racking up 25 strike outs. Although Matinez speeds are incredible, his command is very questionable, especially by the 5th inning. Last week he gave up 8 walks to the yankees and has had less than a 40% zone % in his last two games. The brewers should be aware of this and are good at racking up walks with an 8.9% BB% last year, ranked 7th.

Smutbucket · 04-20-17, 10:27 PM

Day Results: 1-0 +1.12 units

Season YTD: 15-9 +4.45 units