1. 04-02-16 09:59 PM #1
    Smutbucket
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    DapperDan Baseball 2016

    Hello Fellas, back at it again. Time to make some money.

    Will post my results from years past in the next day or two.

    Focused on tmrws card for now, betting a lot heavier than years past as well as doing daily fantasy lineups for baseball which I have never done before (draftkings bc I prefer two pitchers, u/n: dapperdan86)

    Anyways feel free to chime in on games or fantasy ideas. In baseball I pick pretty conservatively with only 1 maybe 2 games a day, lets see if I can hold to that early on as all the day action on monday looks very appetizing, havent even really looked into those yet but will do tmrw. Anyways will post writeups for the most part in games and my average bet is 1 unit a game with an occasional 2x unit bet so nothing crazy in here folks just good ole winner picking.


    4/3/16

    St. Louis (+110) Risking 1 unit to win 1.1 units
    Liriano has notoriously struggled early on in seasons past. Except for 2015 he had an exceptional april but pretty much before that he has always struggled. He has a 12% BB%, a 1.48 WHIP, and .328 wOBA for the month of april, last years exceptional numbers did little to sway his career failures in april. He's starting off againsts a cardinals team that can hit lefties well (especially carpenter, holiday and molina) [put them in your fantasy lineups. Lirano should be a little erratic and Cardinals were the 7th best in the league in walk % as they walked 8.2% of the time. They are familiar with lirano and have hit him well historically with a .328 wOBA on 230 PA and have racked up walks on him with a 10% BB%. On the other side we have Wainwright returning to form. Someone who is very experienced at opening day success, sporting a 2-1 record over the last 3 years starting every opening day, with only 4 walks, 21 SOs, a 1.22 WHIP and 1.48 FIP. As a team Cardinals are much better at starting off the season in April over the last 3 years, with a .321 wOBA and 2.6/9.3 Off/Def (fangraphs stats) compared to the pirates who are .276 wOBA and -21.8/1.1 Off/Def.


    Any questions, comments, observations feel free to chime in,

    I usually fizzle out by july but Ill be at this hardcore daily number crunching until then...

    hoping to see some regulars back and posting again as the mlb forum seems a little dead the night before.....pacocn, 2dabank, nocoin, bifftfinancial.....hope to see you all soon and best of luck this season
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  2. 04-03-16 12:28 AM #2
    SlickRick1382
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    Good luck this season !!!!
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  3. 04-04-16 02:24 AM #3
    Smutbucket
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    Thanks slickrick good to see ya back around

    0-1 -1 units

    probably gonna add another one or 2 tmrw but adding this one now:

    4/4
    Washington -1 (-160) Risking 1.6 units to win 1 units
    Is there any way wash loses this game? by the numbers its quite obvious why wash is -200. we have scherzer who was probably easily one of the most improved pitchers by the numbers last season. all his pitches increased from 1-1.5 mph. he recorded the highest swing rate at 54.24% higher than any other starting pitcher and ranking 4th in whifs per swing at 31.4% he has historically dominated this atlanta lineup who have hit a .612 OPS off him and a .267 wOBA with 215 PAs. On the other side Nats have historically dominated tehran with an OPS .914 and a wOBA of .392 from 187 PA. Taking Scherzer in my fantasy lineups as well as last year in atl he had 9 SO in 8.1 innings and 0 BB.
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  4. 04-04-16 11:31 AM #4
    Smutbucket
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    MLB Results:

    2012
    thread total: 27-21 +11.75 units
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...em-trackd.html

    2013
    thread total: 96-91 (51%) + 6.69 units
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...stem-13-a.html

    2014
    thread total: 144-117-3 +17.06 units
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...-14-picks.html

    2015
    thread total: 48-63 -22.55
    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...-mlb-15-a.html


    TOTAL THREAD RESULTS:
    315-292 (52%) +12.95 units


    Looking to turn things around this year after last years struggles
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  5. 04-04-16 12:50 PM #5
    Smutbucket
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    Adding 4/4

    Seattle (+120) Risking 1 units to win 1.2 units

    Oak/CWS Under 6.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
    Gray vs Sale in Oak? Opening day, perfect weather? Need I say more?
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  6. 04-04-16 06:48 PM #6
    Smutbucket
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    Just for clarification All my bets are listed pitchers only so the oakland/cws total is a scratch......

    Adding: 4/4
    Cubs (-140) Risking 1.4 units to win 1 units


    day results so far: 0-1-1 -1 unit
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  7. 04-05-16 12:52 PM #7
    Smutbucket
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    yesterday results: 1-1-1 +0 units

    4/5/15
    Seattle (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 units
    Mets (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
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  8. 04-06-16 12:00 PM #8
    Smutbucket
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    Yesterday Results: 2-0 +2units

    4/6
    Marlins FF -.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    Cardinals (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit

    just dont have time for writeups on a daily basis....looking to all the numbers is so time consuming....will post some writeups when I can find some time but time spent on writeups is usually time I could be spending looking into more and more numbers.. crazy how many available resources there are these days
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  9. 04-07-16 07:57 AM #9
    Smutbucket
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    Yesterday Results: 0-2 -2.2 units

    Thread Total: 3-4 -1.2 units

    First 1.5x unit banger of the season with brief writeup

    Giants (-114) Risking 1.71 units to win 1.5 units
    Alex wood has been struggling for the last couple years. His velocity and movement have been significantly dropping and he is only a 3 pitch pitcher. Giants were the best hitting curveball team last year and they should come to life against this struggling pitcher who predictably throws his curveball 20% of the time. Its vertical break is way down from seasons past and is barely even classifiable as a curveball. Peavy on the other hand is a seasoned veteran who continues to adapt and evolve, mixing up his pitch types from year to year and remaining unpredictable. As a team the dodgers have only hit him with a measly .256 wOBA. Giants win easily
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  10. 04-07-16 01:03 PM #10
    Smutbucket
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    Adding:
    Yankees (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
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  11. 04-07-16 09:14 PM #11
    Smutbucket
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    day results: 2-0 +2.5 units

    thread results: 5-4 +1.3 units
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  12. 04-08-16 02:24 AM #12
    Smutbucket
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    might add some more in the morning....calling it a night after locking in this one


    4/8
    Tigers (-122) Risking 1.22 units to win 1 units
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  13. 04-08-16 05:20 PM #13
    Smutbucket
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    4/8 additions:

    TB/Bal Under 8 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
    Red Sox (+155) Risking .5 units to win .77 units
    Brewers (+110) Risking .5 units to win .55 units


    to a profitable fun filled friday night
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  14. 04-08-16 10:52 PM #14
    Smutbucket
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    4/8 results : 4-0 +3.32 units

    thread: 9-4 +4.62 units

    on to tmrw......
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  15. 04-09-16 11:39 AM #15
    Smutbucket
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    4/9
    Det/NYY Over 9.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
    LAA/Tex FF under 3.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
    Dodgers -1 RL (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
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  16. 04-09-16 09:52 PM #16
    Smutbucket
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    is it still considered a if there was a push? saved by the ever so valuable -1 RL

    ah fuk it thats 8 in a row!



    day results: 2-0-1 +2 units
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  17. 04-09-16 10:36 PM #17
    iloseagain
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    Beast!
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  18. 04-10-16 12:37 AM #18
    Smutbucket
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    lock this one in for tmrw at 8.5 while you still can....weavers pitch velocitys are as follows : fastball 83.3 slider 75.9 curbevall 67 and changeup 75. fade this gas can while you can during his last days of pitching in the major leagues

    4/10
    LAA/Tex Over 8.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
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  19. 04-10-16 02:09 AM #19
    Smutbucket
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    Adding

    4/10/16
    Two Team Parlay (+160) : Royals (-160) and Astros (-165) Risking 1 unit to win 1.6 units
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  20. 04-11-16 12:21 AM #20
    Smutbucket
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    day results: 0-2 -2.2 units......28 runners LOB.

    Thread Results: 11-6 +4.42 units
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  21. 04-11-16 11:11 AM #21
    Smutbucket
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    4/11
    Pit/Det Over 8.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
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  22. 04-11-16 02:48 PM #22
    Smutbucket
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    ADding 4/11

    Twins (+105) Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units
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  23. 04-11-16 05:51 PM #23
    Smutbucket
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    Last Addition for the day:

    Marlins/Mets Over 7.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
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  24. 04-11-16 05:52 PM #24
    Louisvillekid1
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    Good write ups, gl
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  25. 04-11-16 11:49 PM #25
    Smutbucket
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    Day results : 2-1 +1 units
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  26. 04-12-16 01:02 PM #26
    Smutbucket
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    4/12/16

    Nationals -1 RL (-118) Risking 1.18 units to win 1 units
    Mariners (-126) Risking 1.26 units to win 1 units
    Mets/Marlins Under 6 (+100) Risking 1 units to win 1 units
    These are easily two of the top 5 pitchers with the nastiest stuff in baseball. This will be one hell of a game to watch. Sure Fernandez is coming off a rough outing (still got 13 SOs) but that was against one of the best hitting teams in baseball. And although Fernandez has been hit hard by some of these mets in the past, that was back in 2013, before Fernandez refined his slider (also had 9 SOs in 25 ABs). Marlins have yet to see Syndergaards nasty stuff, and although they hit the young Matz hard yesterday there is a large (think the largest in baseball) difference between how the marlins active roster hit lefties (3rd best) and righties (3rd worst) over the last 2 years. Not to mention although it was only one game, all of syndergaards pitches increased in velocity so far this season, including a huge increase in his slider. Like I said, this will be one hell of a game to watch.
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  27. 04-13-16 04:52 PM #27
    Smutbucket
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    Yesterday Results: 1-1-1 -.26 units

    Wash/Atl Over 8 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Both pitchers struggle against lefties. both teams put out lefty dominant lineups. both pitchers struggle period. number is low due to bats struggling on both sides as of late but look for that to change tonight. strasburg scratched and in steps roark. should cash easily.

    Don't usually like to do this in one game but I couldnt decide which I liked more so I just locked in both here

    Indians (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Indians/Rays Under 7 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
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  28. 04-14-16 11:55 AM #28
    Smutbucket
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    Yesterday Results: 2-1 +.9 units

    4/14
    Phils (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Rays -1 RL (+105) Risking 1 units to win 1.05 units
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  29. 04-14-16 03:22 PM #29
    Smutbucket
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    Adding:
    Rangers (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
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  30. 04-14-16 04:01 PM #30
    Skeletor42
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    On the Rangers pick!! BOL Brother!!
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  31. 04-15-16 05:13 PM #31
    Smutbucket
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    Thanks Skeletor!

    Yesterday Results: 2-1 +1 units

    4/15
    Brewers (+136) Risking 1 units to win 1.36 units
    Mia/Atl over 8 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    Indians (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
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  32. 04-15-16 11:02 PM #32
    Smutbucket
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    4/15 Results: 2-1 +1.21 units

    Thread total: 20-11 +8.27 units

    slow and steady wins the race....
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  33. 04-16-16 11:45 AM #33
    Smutbucket
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    4/16/16
    Mariners/Yanks Over 7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Twins (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
    Oakland -1 RL (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units

    might add some later
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  34. 04-16-16 04:07 PM #34
    Smutbucket
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    Adding:
    Astros (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
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  35. 04-17-16 04:04 AM #35
    Smutbucket
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    Yesterday Results: 2-2 -.4 units


    4/17/16
    Atlanta (+125) Risking 1 unit to win 1.25 units
    Chacin isnt the same pitcher he was all those years in Colorado. He developed a cutter as well as made improvements to his slider and changeup in 2015. He's a pitcher with a nice arsenal of pitches and is experienced in using them. Even though the marlins have hit him well in the past, they have not hit the new chacin well at all. On the other side we have Jared Cosart, essentially a two pitch pitcher (throws fastballs 70%+ of the time) and his velo is a little down this season. As I stated in a past writeup this marlins lineup really struggles with righties and the braves lineup which is lefty dominant should find their bats against cosart who theyve hit well in the past (.359 wOBA) and has the same type stuff he has always had. There was a lot of fuss about the braves losing first 7 games but 4 of those were against the nats and 3 from cards. I think they complete the sweep on sunday.
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