Dapper Dan Picks - MLB '17

[Smutbucket]

That why I bet them all the same!! I save fuckin up my weighted bets for NFL like god intended!! Lol

Ya you know me I usually do, I think Ive had one 2 unit bet all season, I just dropped my unit size because was getting tired of breaking even and just circumstances with acct

whats really frustrating me is Ive been on this forum for so long and know so many good cappers, like you and coin and some in real life and just havent tailed as much as I should of even though I knew before the season started who the consistent winners were, ha....wasting so much time doing capping to break even when I can just tail the right people takes 30seconds each day and would be up 15x what I am now

[2daBank]

Lol. Yea but capping them is the entertainment for me!

Was you Texas total cancelled? Assuming you bet listed pitchers..

[Smutbucket]

Lol. Yea but capping them is the entertainment for me!

Was you Texas total cancelled? Assuming you bet listed pitchers..

Haha ya if you're winning, if you're losing it's miserably frustrating


I bet with betus and you have to take an extra step and check a box to bet listed pitchers so I always bet action, lol, don't have time for that

For tracking purposes I use pickmonitor and they do the same thing action always unless otherwise noted so I'm counting as a win. I use their lines as well even though they slightly differ from mine

I will total up tmrw but I'm pretty sure we're slightly in the black on the season in this thread

[Smutbucket]

ARgh, Im just finding out BETUS totals are always listed only....I swear this is a new rule and I've had a listed pitcher scratched at the last minute before and got screwed....

[joco]

Bump

[Smutbucket]

Joco's back in the forums.....hooray


Thread Season YTD : 28-23 +3.69 units

Got a couple lined up for today just seeing how everyone else plays things, posting later in day and gauging my plays off of other cappers picks have been beneficial. I will usually from now on post just before an hour before gametime (unless life shit happens). An hour before is pickmonitors standard of maintaining good follow-ability so I dont want to post later than that.

[Smutbucket]

5/3/17
KC/CWS Under 7.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Au Contraire

Baltimore (+129) Risking 1 unit to win 1.29 units
This is war.

[2daBank]

Gl buddy

[Smutbucket]

Argh. Unluckies man on earth. Gausman gets ejected for bs in 2nd inning,

Yesterday: 1-1 + 0 units

Two afternoon FF's to start the day

5/4/17
KC/CWS FF Under 4 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Texas FF (+130) Risking 1 unit to win 1.3 units

[Smutbucket]

Fuking error blew my under

Think thats all for the day

Results: 1-1 +.2 units

Thread YTD: 30-25 +3.89 units

[Smutbucket]

No writeups are also good indicators if I had drank alcohol the night before.....



5/5/17
Texas -1 (+111) Risking 1 unit to win 1.11 units
LAA TT Under 3.5 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

Sure Houston its the bottom of the 9th and Keuchel has pitched a great game so lets keep him in and let him load the bases since were up by 4 runs and fukk everyone with the under....whats the worse that could happen. I wish them damn bastards lost....on a side note, anyone noticing Keuchels HEATMAPS this season? jesus they are better than he was in 2015. RIDE KEUCHEL

Yesterday results: 1-1 -.19

5/6/17

Angels (+109) Risking 1 unit to win 1.09 units
I never really understood what all the Lance McCullers hype was about. Sure he sports some great plate discipline numbers but besides that his stuff isn't very impressive. He has a 6mph differential from his fastball/changeup that he only throws less than 10% of the time and relies on his KnuckleCurve 50% of the time. Although the angels have struggled with him in the past, they have seen him a lot just two weeks ago and are one of the better Curveball hitting teams in the league over the last two years. Maybe Im just biased with pitchers with such a small pitch selection. On the other side we have JC Ramirez who just became a starter this year, thanks to his own addition of a curveball.He can reach 96 mph with his fastball and has an improved slider that he has relied on a lot more this year than normal. His new curveball is a great putaway pitch for him this season that has raised him to starter level and increased his SwStrike% by 3%. Ill take the Angels at home here at + money.

Cubs/Yanks Under 7.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
A scary low number for these two teams but the low line is telling because it goes against the market and public perception that this game should easily go over. Bookies begging for square money on the over. Weather conditions and pitchers favorable to under, depiste them having some poor recent outings and high ERAs.

[2daBank]

We sometimes have some very different takes on pitchers. I think McCullers is really really good, like has potential to be talked about in the cy young race for many years to come! Lol..

Then we have keuchel who I don't like at all. He got me a bunch in 15, then last year I cashed a bunch against him. Luckily I've resisted any temptation to be against him this season thus far, it only a matter of time tho till his prices climb and I see spots I'll be against him once again!! Lol.. gl tonight

[Smutbucket]

Ya i mean I havent really watched McCullers just been hearing a lot about him from the media. I just tend to dislike pitchers with 90% of their pitch selection from two pitches, so I need to watch on pitchf/x for a couple games to really get a good feel for em.

As far as Keuchel, here's his heatmaps for this season. Ive watched a few of his games on heatmaps and his location this season is impeccable. He could get squeezed by a shitty ump but he paints the bottom corners of the zone better than anyone Ive ever seen recently. Doubt he can sustain this and his 63% GB % rate, but I think he can get to 20 wins with the Astros Bats behind him.

http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=9434&position=P&ss=2017-01-01&se=2017-12-01&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=0&grid=5&view=pit&pitch=&season=2017

[2daBank]

Yea a ump w a tighter k-zone def one of the things I look for to be against him. his location been incredible, certainly not saying he bad i just have a harder time buying a guy as a ace when doesn't really have "ace stuff". Or could be i can't stand his beard! Lmao!! I'm definitely not saying he can't or won't win 20, as you said he got a great offense supporting him, believe pretty good d behind him(that just a guess tho) , and he goes deep into games so the chances to get wins gonna be there all season..

McCullers has ace stuff, sure he could use another pitch but when ya got 2 plus plus pitches the 3rd pitch just needs to be a token deal to show hitter every now and then..

[Smutbucket]

Yesterday Results: 1-1 -.03 units

Tired of splitting.... to a 2-0 day

5/7/17
Royals (-105) Risking 1.05 unit to win 1 unit
With the indians struggling to hit Lefties this season, Ill take a seasoned veteran like Duffy over a new called up prospect, Clevinger. Sure the royals are struggling to plate runs but their defense is still sharp and Duffy has re-emerged from the Bullpen as an elite starter. Sure he got knocked around hard by the white sox the last two weeks but thats bound to happen by any team that has seen a pitcher as often as the white sox has seen Duffy. That shouldnt be the case in this cleveland matcup as the indians havent started a game against Duffy since '15. Although in 2015, Duffy had some of his worst outing against the indians, it was before he perfected and started to use his slider.

Braves (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Teams get better after seeing a pitcher/pitch type more often and no one on this cards team has really seen a knuckleball pitcher in the last 5 years. Its a getaway day on the road in the middle of a 6 game roadtrip.

[Smutbucket]

last time I ever bet the royals,

Day results: 0-2 -2.07 units

Adding:
Yanks/Cubs Under 7.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
I know, Im freaking crazy but all the signs point to this being an obvious over, 99% of joe blows out there are on the over, every reason in the world to take the over the way these two teams hit, yet I am a stubborn wanna-be sharp moron who can't help but laying this action when I should really just wait til mondays games

[No coincidences]

last time I ever bet the royals,

Day results: 0-2 -2.07 units

Adding:
Yanks/Cubs Under 7.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
I know, Im freaking crazy but all the signs point to this being an obvious over, 99% of joe blows out there are on the over, every reason in the world to take the over the way these two teams hit, yet I am a stubborn wanna-be sharp moron who can't help but laying this action when I should really just wait til mondays games

I had the Royals, too. What a mess.

Braves loss was inexcusable. Total choke job.

[Smutbucket]

Taking a few days off after that rough day....I would love to see my units on Sundays for whatever reason I always get hammered on Sundays

0-3 - 3.22 units

[Smutbucket]

back at it

5/10
Braves (+185) Risking 1 unit to win 1.85 units
Tigers (+123) Risking 1 unit to win 1.23 units

[Smutbucket]

Adding
Marlins (-116) risking 1.16 units to win 1 units


Books are begging for cardinal money 💰

[JPR0411]

Yes they are, line makes no sense at all to me. I'm on the cards big and wondering what am I missing?!

[Smutbucket]

I think Ive fallen for every reverse reverse reverse trap this season.

[Smutbucket]

0-3 -3.16 units

5/11/17
Orioles (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Astros (+115) Risking 1 unit to win 1.15 units

[Smutbucket]

yesterday: 1-0 +1.15 units

5/12/17
Oakland (-101) Risking 1.01 units to win 1 units
Bal/KC FF under 4(-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

yesterday results: 1-1 -.01 units


5/13
Atlanta/Miami Over 9 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
Padres -1 RL (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[2daBank]

Gl buddy

[Smutbucket]

Thanks bank, I need luck right now. In a real funk

yesterday results: 0-2 -2.24 units


5/14/17
Tigers (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Rockies (+118) Riskng 1 unit to win 1.18 units

[Smutbucket]

Yesterday Results: 1-1 +.03 units

5/15
Rays FF RL +.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

Yesterday Results: 0-1 -1.1 units

Lets try to revitalize my last big day by taking 3 big dogs today

5/16
Phillies (+175) Risking 1 unit to win 1.75 units
Rays FF (+142) Risking 1 unit to win 1.42 units
Giants (+160) Risking 1 unit to win 1.6 units

[Smutbucket]

Yesterday REsults: 2-1 +2.02 units

5/17/17
Royals (+122) Risking 1 unit to win 1.22 units
Phillies (+118) Risking 1 unit to win 1.18 units
Oakland (-101) Risking 1.01 units to win 1 units

argh....Ive lost like 4 units betting on Hahn this season and if you follow my picks you know Im a stubborn mf

[Smutbucket]

I text my friend Joco right before oak pick yesterday.... I wanna bet Hahn but oak bats always fux me ... he says I should bet under.... I say ya sounds like a better idea but end up going with oak and get burned being stubborn again. Bergman throws almost a no hitter. Unbelievable

0-3 -3.01

5/18
Brewers (-102) risking 1.02 to win 1

If it weren't for my other clappers at sbr this season id be broke

[2daBank]

Hang in there buddy you will get it going. I hate and rarely bet 2nd half of season, maybe that be your time to shine!!

[Smutbucket]

Hang in there buddy you will get it going. I hate and rarely bet 2nd half of season, maybe that be your time to shine!!

ahh no....Im the same way and usually call it quits by june-july sooo....sometimes feel pressed to make a turn around quick but then realize theres still a bunch of time.....part that pisses me off the most is a lot of my losses could have been avoidable

Im starting to pivot and change my handicapping style a bit.....I will elaborate more on it if it works out and this turn around works, still working out the kinks....focusing more on the game-charts on fangraphs and noticing some trends

day results: 1-0 +1 units

[Smutbucket]

Maybe more to come.....will total up season results later tonight, think Im around -7 units

5/19
Phillies (+110) Risking 1 unit to win 1.1 units
Marlins RL +1.5 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 units
Toronto (+108) Risking 1 units to win 1.08 units