Vegas Dave's Baseball Picks 05/21/09 (Write-Ups)
Lincecum to lead Giants (-135) over San Diego Padres
In a series that has come down to two pitching duels, you have to like one of the best in the game to get the job done. Arizona and the under in St. Louis are also worth playing today.
Pick 1: San Francisco Giants -135 over San Diego Padres
Thursday, May 21, 10:05 PM
After two straight 2-1 games in this series, one thing is pretty clear; offense is at a premium.
Tim Lincecum hasn’t been perfect this season; he has shown some signs of being human at points. But in ultra-pitcher-friendly Petco, I find it hard to believe that Lincecum won’t pitch at least as well as his teammates Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez did in this series (just surrounding two runs each), and he is very capable of doing better against this punch-less offense. Both Sanchez and Zito surrendered homeruns in otherwise relatively spotless outings; Lincecum has been keeping the ball in the park all season, surrendering only one homerun all year.
It seems that just about anyone pitching for San Diego, starter or bullpen, can completely shutdown the Giants’ bats in this series. But Kevin Correia has given up three runs or more in five of his seven starts this season, and hasn’t gone an outing without surrendering at least two. Two runs might be all that Lincecum needs, and I’m going to take the substantially better pitcher at a discounted price every chance I get.
Pick 2: Arizona Diamondbacks -117 over Florida Marlins
Thursday, May 21, 7:10 PM
Max Scherzer is one of my favorite young arms in the game today, and while he will occasionally have a bad game as all young pitchers do, he has by and large been pretty sharp this season, compiling a 3.35 ERA this season. He hasn’t given up more than four runs in any of his seven starts, and has given up two runs or less in four of them.
Unfortunately for Scherzer, the Diamondbacks have been a major disappointment this season offensively, riddled with injuries and slumping young players. Only Justin Upton has really taken a step forward this season, and Mark Reynolds has kept his power numbers up, but the young core that Arizona was leaning heavily on has not produced runs.
That said, if the last two games that these two teams have played are any indication, offense won’t be a problem in this series. Florida won the first game of the doubleheader 8-6, and Arizona took the second, 11-9 in extra innings. Florida’s Andrew Miller has an ERA of 5.94 so far this season, right on par with his 5.81 career ERA. With both teams’ slumping and recent issues canceling each other out, I think it comes down to pitching tonight, and Arizona is sending the better pitcher to the mound.
Pick 3: Chicago Cubs/St. Louis Cardinals under 8.5 runs
Thursday, May 21, 8:15 PM
Before his last start, Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter had watched some tapes and found a problem in his delivery that they felt he could easily correct. The result?
8 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 1 R, and 7 Ks in his last start against the Brewers.
Even before the correction, Wainwright was pitching out of a lot of jams and for the most part keeping his teams in games. After the promising start in his last out, I’m encouraged that he has another good effort in him today.
As for Sean Marshall, he is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. That isn’t to say that he has incredible stuff; but he consistently pitches well both out of the bullpen and as a starter, and had an ERA under 4.00 in both 2007 and 2008. In five starts this season he has given up three runs or less in four of them.
I expect Marshall to do about that, give up two or three runs over six innings, and allow for Wainweight and the bullpens to take care of the rest.
Good luck today!
In a series that has come down to two pitching duels, you have to like one of the best in the game to get the job done. Arizona and the under in St. Louis are also worth playing today.
Pick 1: San Francisco Giants -135 over San Diego Padres
Thursday, May 21, 10:05 PM
After two straight 2-1 games in this series, one thing is pretty clear; offense is at a premium.
Tim Lincecum hasn’t been perfect this season; he has shown some signs of being human at points. But in ultra-pitcher-friendly Petco, I find it hard to believe that Lincecum won’t pitch at least as well as his teammates Barry Zito and Jonathan Sanchez did in this series (just surrounding two runs each), and he is very capable of doing better against this punch-less offense. Both Sanchez and Zito surrendered homeruns in otherwise relatively spotless outings; Lincecum has been keeping the ball in the park all season, surrendering only one homerun all year.
It seems that just about anyone pitching for San Diego, starter or bullpen, can completely shutdown the Giants’ bats in this series. But Kevin Correia has given up three runs or more in five of his seven starts this season, and hasn’t gone an outing without surrendering at least two. Two runs might be all that Lincecum needs, and I’m going to take the substantially better pitcher at a discounted price every chance I get.
Pick 2: Arizona Diamondbacks -117 over Florida Marlins
Thursday, May 21, 7:10 PM
Max Scherzer is one of my favorite young arms in the game today, and while he will occasionally have a bad game as all young pitchers do, he has by and large been pretty sharp this season, compiling a 3.35 ERA this season. He hasn’t given up more than four runs in any of his seven starts, and has given up two runs or less in four of them.
Unfortunately for Scherzer, the Diamondbacks have been a major disappointment this season offensively, riddled with injuries and slumping young players. Only Justin Upton has really taken a step forward this season, and Mark Reynolds has kept his power numbers up, but the young core that Arizona was leaning heavily on has not produced runs.
That said, if the last two games that these two teams have played are any indication, offense won’t be a problem in this series. Florida won the first game of the doubleheader 8-6, and Arizona took the second, 11-9 in extra innings. Florida’s Andrew Miller has an ERA of 5.94 so far this season, right on par with his 5.81 career ERA. With both teams’ slumping and recent issues canceling each other out, I think it comes down to pitching tonight, and Arizona is sending the better pitcher to the mound.
Pick 3: Chicago Cubs/St. Louis Cardinals under 8.5 runs
Thursday, May 21, 8:15 PM
Before his last start, Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter had watched some tapes and found a problem in his delivery that they felt he could easily correct. The result?
8 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 1 R, and 7 Ks in his last start against the Brewers.
Even before the correction, Wainwright was pitching out of a lot of jams and for the most part keeping his teams in games. After the promising start in his last out, I’m encouraged that he has another good effort in him today.
As for Sean Marshall, he is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. That isn’t to say that he has incredible stuff; but he consistently pitches well both out of the bullpen and as a starter, and had an ERA under 4.00 in both 2007 and 2008. In five starts this season he has given up three runs or less in four of them.
I expect Marshall to do about that, give up two or three runs over six innings, and allow for Wainweight and the bullpens to take care of the rest.
Good luck today!