I had so much fun last week writing about some cellar dweller teams to keep an eye on, that I’m going to do it again. This time around though, I’m taking note of a couple of top division squads that I feel will begin to fade as the season begins to mature. The Dodgers and Cards are solid. I think that the Marlins are in it for the long haul. Seattle is just too weird for me to figure out right now. That leaves us with the Blue Jays and White Sox. For added fun, I threw in some thoughts on the Royals as well. And can one ever get enough of the Royals? I think not.
Toronto Blue Jays
17-9, 1st AL East
I’ve made many new Canadian friends recently, and they’re not going to be happy about what I say here. Except the ones from Quebec. I’ve heard they have no soul, and I’m opening an investigation.
Toronto has been a great bet thus far at +743 units on the year. They are certainly a respectable club, and if they were in they were in the AL West, I’d be saying that they had the division wrapped up already. The problem is that they are stuck with the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays (who should be returning back to their winning ways right about now.) This is a classic case of “It’s not you, it’s me.”
Age defector
Jose Guillen could take Mr. T
Toronto Blue Jays
17-9, 1st AL East
I’ve made many new Canadian friends recently, and they’re not going to be happy about what I say here. Except the ones from Quebec. I’ve heard they have no soul, and I’m opening an investigation.
Toronto has been a great bet thus far at +743 units on the year. They are certainly a respectable club, and if they were in they were in the AL West, I’d be saying that they had the division wrapped up already. The problem is that they are stuck with the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays (who should be returning back to their winning ways right about now.) This is a classic case of “It’s not you, it’s me.”
Great start Aaron. Now what?
The Jays are a hitting machine. They have six guys batting over .300, led by second baseman Aaron Hill, who has also belted six homeruns. Adam Lind is also off to a hot start at .320, 5 HR. Shortstop Marco Scutaro is tied for fourth most walks in baseball (23) which result in run production. His 24 runs scored ranks fourth best in the league. A quick look at some team offensive rankings:
- 5.96 runs per game (2nd)
- .295 batting average (1st)
- .842 OPS (1st)
- 33 homeruns (3rd)
All of that and Vernon Wells hasn’t even really gotten started yet! Let’s be honest though, there is no way they will be able to maintain those numbers at the plate. And they can only send ace Roy Halladay out there once every five games, so let’s take a look at their pitching.
Halladay is always a safe bet. He’s set off on yet another fantastic season (5-1, 3.68 ERA). The question marks begin whenever he’s not on the mound. David Purcey (0-2, 7.01 ERA) and Brian Tallet (1-1, 6.45) are struggling, while Scott Richmond (3-0, 2.70 ERA) and Ricky Romero (2-0, 1.71 ERA) are off to nice starts. Romero is on the DL right now, as is closer BJ Ryan. Ryan was pretty ineffective when he was playing. His two blown saves equal half of his season total from 2008, and his 11.12 ERA was not a help to anybody (especially those of us who had him on our fantasy teams.)
Up until this weekend, the Jays hadn’t even played anyone in their division. Now 14 of their next 30 games will come against Boston, NYY and the underachieving, yet highly talented Angels. Really, it’s not you Toronto. It’s me. And it’s time to fade.
Chicago White Sox
12-11, 2nd AL Central
With only 4 games separating the leader from the last place team, the Central is anyone’s division. Still, I expect the three bottom teams to be the three top when the season concludes. Detroit, Cleveland and Minnesota are who I have my eye on. The White Sox really don’t scare me much.
Paul Konerko (.313, 18 rbi) and Jermaine Dye (.289, 6 HR) are looking good. Carlos Quentin’s power has returned with eight jacks thus far. Alexei Ramirez is mired in a disastrous sophomore campaign and Jim Thome’s strikeouts have become a pillar of consistency. Their middle of the pack offensive stats are nothing to fear.
As for their rotation, yes, John Danks and Mark Buehrle are dependable guys. Then you never know what you get with Gavin Floyd. The fun begins when Jack Lemmon and Walter Matthau, aka Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon take the mound. Contreras looks every bit of his age, whether you decide to go with the reported one of 37, or probable of 45.
Age defector
The true test will take place now, as 15 of their next 38 games come against the Clev/Det/Minn teams, Angels and a four game series at Toronto. I’m thinking there could be some money to be made fading Ozzie Guillen and crew.
Kansas City Royals
13-11, 1st AL Central
I really enjoy this team. I don’t think they are the Rays of ’09, but they are still a lot of fun to watch. Could they win the Central? With this pitching staff, I suppose anything is possible, but they don’t have history on their side at all. The Royals have had only one winning season since 1994, and their last division title came in 1985! To put that in perspective, 1985 saw Ronald Reagan winning his second term as President. “We Are The World” was released. The first ever Wrestlemania was held for crying out loud! There is a losing tradition to be maintained in Kansas City. Still, they scare me.
Jose Guillen could take Mr. T
I’m a fan of scrappy players like David DeJesus, Mark Teahen and the potentially psychotic Jose Guillen. But the Royal’s success this year is a direct compliment of their pitching staff. Of course any talk of Royal’s pitching should begin with Zack Greinke.
I always thought that Greinke was capable of putting up some dominating numbers, but never like this! He finally gave up his first two earned runs of the year in his last start. He either leads or is tied for the lead in league wins (5), ERA (0.50) and K’s (44). Wow!
Brian Bannister (2-0, 1.96 ERA) is another starter dominating. Then comes the triple-headed monster of Gil Meche/Kyle Davies/Sidney Ponson. Yes, Ponson is still pitching. Combined, they are 3-7 with an ERA of 5.20. But never fear, the bullpen is here. What a luxury to have Robinson Tejeda, Juan Cruz, Jamey Wright and Joakim Soria to rely upon. Together they have a 1.94 ERA and 37 strikeouts in only 41.1 innings pitched. That’s how you get your starters out of mid-to-late game situations.
Soria is my favorite closer to watch. He’s got nasty stuff, and is still a bit of a hidden gem for now. He’s a perfect 5-for-5 in save attempts this year, and with Royal’s wins piling up, the number will surely grow.
So am I fading the Royals? I am not. Even though I expect them to drop off at some point, they are just too exciting to root against right now. I will be playing some Unders on them though. The under has hit 13 of their first 24 games, and with this staff on hand, the number will surely grow.
