MLB - Friday, 6/17/16

[LT Profits]

im not questioning or care about the model i just want to know what possesses you to take the pirates after their bad hitting performances AND with arrietta on the mound? its like borderline crazy

The answer is in the 60%ers post, model had Cubs 66% (-194). So I actually expected to lose this play 66% of the time, but getting +217 the 34% it is excpected to win is +EV.

[44 Mag]

Funny thing is, If the Pirates would have won somehow, everyone would be praising the +240 win. When, if you took the Pirates +240 vs Arrieta every time you'd be in such a big hole... but hey, there's value there!

Can't just use math only in this game, have to put something into trends and streaks. Sure, Math should be a majority factor but trends and streaks should weigh in. Arrieta owns the Pirates

UGH! Just because a play is +240, it does not mean it has value.
Look at the 60%ers post, model has Houston 71% (-245), so line seems perfect.

Where is the value in losing a wager at 2.5 to 1 odds, when you know in your mind the Pirates were not going to win, most likely. That is not value. it is wishful thinking.
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[gregmav1]

Yeah the whole "value" thing is something bettors love to talk about as reason for their losing plays and I just can't get behind it. The math makes sense absolutely, if Pirates have a 30% chance to win in your mind and odds give them a 20% chance, I understand why makes sense to take it. But, if I think a play is a losing play, can't make it. Not going to go against Arrieta once this year unless the other team is like +400 and I can lay .25 unit on it. Throwing money away.

Respect though LT, always check your threads to see what your model says for games and your takes.

[LT Profits]

Where is the value in losing a wager at 2.5 to 1 odds, when you know in your mind the Pirates were not going to win, most likely. That is not value. it is wishful thinking.
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But it IS value. I repeat, I expected the Pirates to lose this matchup 66% of the time, but what about getting +217 the 34% of the time they were expected to win? It is basic math. The long term is all that matters to me because I bet every day. Now for the occasional bettor that is only concerned with a few winning plays, the mindset would be different, although even he should never take a bad price. I prefer higher volume with smaller edges because that theoretically leads to less variance (althouh that had not been the case for me this crazy year with runs of -20, +33 and -25).

[RavensFan2k3]

Where is the value in losing a wager at 2.5 to 1 odds, when you know in your mind the Pirates were not going to win, most likely. That is not value. it is wishful thinking.
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This

Yeah the whole "value" thing is something bettors love to talk about as reason for their losing plays and I just can't get behind it. The math makes sense absolutely, if Pirates have a 30% chance to win in your mind and odds give them a 20% chance, I understand why makes sense to take it. But, if I think a play is a losing play, can't make it. Not going to go against Arrieta once this year unless the other team is like +400 and I can lay .25 unit on it. Throwing money away.

Respect though LT, always check your threads to see what your model says for games and your takes.

This

[HeeluvaGuy]

It's all right here in this chart (assuming an accurate model):

https://www.boydsbets.com/money-line-conversion-chart/

[RavensFan2k3]

It's all right here in this chart (assuming an accurate model):

https://www.boydsbets.com/money-line-conversion-chart/

Right, you compare the actual line vs what the real line should be, or what you feel the line should be.

[RavensFan2k3]

Nobody likes Seattle?

Well I do

Seattle up 2-0 already. Why was was this not a play?

[44 Mag]

This


This

WELL, I can't afford to toss away 100.00 or 1000.00 (NFL) per game on wishful thinking, when only a fluke wins against a high triple line, like say Kershaw, Jake, etc.

[JJJ]

1 unit down today how many more to go..... zona under looks bad already

[jay89]

The model's not all that bad. Assuming nickel lines, with 414 plays that's -20.7 units in juice. subtracting that from the -12u on the year, the model is actually slightly positive (+8u). Personally, I wouldn't even chance a game like when a stud like arrieta; I'd like to know LT's record on games where the odds are at least +200, i'd guess that those losses are cutting into his margins

[RavensFan2k3]

The model's not all that bad. Assuming nickel lines, with 414 plays that's -20.7 units in juice. subtracting that from the -12u on the year, the model is actually slightly positive (+8u). Personally, I wouldn't even chance a game like when a stud like arrieta; I'd like to know LT's record on games where the odds are at least +200, i'd guess that those losses are cutting into his margins

Someone is going to have to explain this to me

[RavensFan2k3]

Model agrees with you, it has Seattle FAVORED 51% (-104). I am sitting it out though because Elias knows all the weaknesses of Seattle lineup, so he could pitch over his head this one game.

???

[JJJ]

2 units down how many more to go...glad that feared tigers offense showed up

[JJJ]

the over might hit in the Yankees game in the first inning lol

[Duckshit]

Yep, Ventura blows. He has the fourth worst xFIP in the majors at 5.24, due in large part to dreadful ratio of 6.66 strikeouts vs. 4.44 walks per nine innings. That walk rate is also fourth worst in the majors. I love Fulmer but he is not Kershaw-good, he will allow a few runs eventually. Best thing is he does not even need to allow much with Ventura facing hot Detroit offense.

Worst info Ever.......

[JJJ]

another brutal day

[vokyruk]

another brutal day

[RavensFan2k3]

Model agrees with you, it has Seattle FAVORED 51% (-104). I am sitting it out though because Elias knows all the weaknesses of Seattle lineup, so he could pitch over his head this one game.

Yeah, I was quite surprised model spit out Miami 51%.

Rockies big edge in starting pitcher (11% edge in run supression), but apparently Miami having a lot of little edges elsewhere was enough to offset that.

Your model makes decent plays, you just dont play them because you deem them to not have enough value.

[Jayvegas420]

Mark my words, if you fade Arrietta every start this season you will end up +u.

[RavensFan2k3]

Mark my words, if you fade Arrietta every start this season you will end up +u.

Oh ok cool

[reed_barrington]

Getting hammered

[mikefan1034]

Padres down 5-1 game over lol LT is a fraud and people if they haven't already need to stop tailing his plays. He should be ashamed of himself. U have people losing real money following him and he continues to just throw darts. He doesn't even bet money no
Way a a person can just continue to throw away money because the number in a system tell him it has value. Nats are the hot team the better team and he goes with Padres hoping to stike lightening in a bottle. Why not just avoid the game or why didn't u just take the Cubs earlier -1.5 or the Yankees against the Twins those are good spots. There's a reason I'm destroying u in the contest

[goduke]

Padres down 5-1 game over lol LT is a fraud and people if they haven't already need to stop tailing his plays. He should be ashamed of himself. U have people losing real money following him and he continues to just throw darts. He doesn't even bet money no
Way a a person can just continue to throw away money because the number in a system tell him it has value. Nats are the hot team the better team and he goes with Padres hoping to stike lightening in a bottle. Why not just avoid the game or why didn't u just take the Cubs earlier -1.5 or the Yankees against the Twins those are good spots. There's a reason I'm destroying u in the contest

Nothing like showing a little humility. Let your numbers do the talking. Act like you've been able to do it before

[mikefan1034]

Nothing like showing a little humility. Let your numbers do the talking. Act like you've been able to do it before

My numbers are doing the talking im up 20 units and he's down 29 units

[mikefan1034]

If you some winners tomm LT mets -1.5 and Indians will destroy shields tomm, and keuchal should win at home against reds

[Brock Landers]

If you were Brocks bookie and would give him 10-20 cent off of every fav he bets , you would still rake in money as crazy.
Absolutely clueless

Sure I am fucko

[Sam Odom]

Brock... post your money plays over here at SBR , bro

[Brock Landers]

Fuckk the "model"

Do proper handicapping and quit thinking you had value when you are losing tons of units

The way JJ scalps is infinitely superior to this bullshit

[tradeout]

7 MLB Plays Friday

Pirates +217 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Phillies UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Yankees / Twins UNDER 8.5 -115 (Heritage)
Tigers -113 (DSI)
Tigers / Royals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Tigers -0.5 +110 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Padres +151 (Heritage)

Tigers / Royals OVER 8 -110

the only play i tailed.

cheers

[Brock Landers]

Brock... post your money plays over here at SBR , bro

You post them

I'll rock anyone who cares to take me on in college football.

Would love to crack drink your milkshakes cranium, guy thinks he is God's gift to college football capping

[Sam Odom]

The way JJ scalps is infinitely superior to this bullshit

[Brock Landers]

Padres down 5-1 game over lol LT is a fraud and people if they haven't already need to stop tailing his plays. He should be ashamed of himself. U have people losing real money following him and he continues to just throw darts. He doesn't even bet money no
Way a a person can just continue to throw away money because the number in a system tell him it has value. Nats are the hot team the better team and he goes with Padres hoping to stike lightening in a bottle. Why not just avoid the game or why didn't u just take the Cubs earlier -1.5 or the Yankees against the Twins those are good spots. There's a reason I'm destroying u in the contest

Remember

It's LONG TERM PROFITS

Fuckk the day to day details of getting your shit pushed in

[juicername]

If you some winners tomm LT mets -1.5 and Indians will destroy shields tomm, and keuchal should win at home against reds

So you think three teams all in the range of -220 to -265 will win? Sharp as a knife, aren't you.

[mikefan1034]

So you think three teams all in the range of -220 to -265 will win? Sharp as a knife, aren't you.

Check the contest I'm with LT I'll bury u as well u broke dik mush