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Where is the value in losing a wager at 2.5 to 1 odds, when you know in your mind the Pirates were not going to win, most likely. That is not value. it is wishful thinking.Funny thing is, If the Pirates would have won somehow, everyone would be praising the +240 win. When, if you took the Pirates +240 vs Arrieta every time you'd be in such a big hole... but hey, there's value there!
Can't just use math only in this game, have to put something into trends and streaks. Sure, Math should be a majority factor but trends and streaks should weigh in. Arrieta owns the Pirates
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Yeah the whole "value" thing is something bettors love to talk about as reason for their losing plays and I just can't get behind it. The math makes sense absolutely, if Pirates have a 30% chance to win in your mind and odds give them a 20% chance, I understand why makes sense to take it. But, if I think a play is a losing play, can't make it. Not going to go against Arrieta once this year unless the other team is like +400 and I can lay .25 unit on it. Throwing money away.
Respect though LT, always check your threads to see what your model says for games and your takes.Comment -
But it IS value.
I repeat, I expected the Pirates to lose this matchup 66% of the time, but what about getting +217 the 34% of the time they were expected to win? It is basic math. The long term is all that matters to me because I bet every day. Now for the occasional bettor that is only concerned with a few winning plays, the mindset would be different, although even he should never take a bad price. I prefer higher volume with smaller edges because that theoretically leads to less variance (althouh that had not been the case for me this crazy year with runs of -20, +33 and -25).
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It's all right here in this chart (assuming an accurate model):
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1 unit down today how many more to go..... zona under looks bad alreadyComment -
The model's not all that bad. Assuming nickel lines, with 414 plays that's -20.7 units in juice. subtracting that from the -12u on the year, the model is actually slightly positive (+8u). Personally, I wouldn't even chance a game like when a stud like arrieta; I'd like to know LT's record on games where the odds are at least +200, i'd guess that those losses are cutting into his marginsComment -
2 units down how many more to go...glad that feared tigers offense showed upComment -
the over might hit in the Yankees game in the first inning lolComment -
Worst info Ever.......Yep, Ventura blows. He has the fourth worst xFIP in the majors at 5.24, due in large part to dreadful ratio of 6.66 strikeouts vs. 4.44 walks per nine innings. That walk rate is also fourth worst in the majors. I love Fulmer but he is not Kershaw-good, he will allow a few runs eventually.
Best thing is he does not even need to allow much with Ventura facing hot Detroit offense.Comment -
another brutal dayComment -
Your model makes decent plays, you just dont play them because you deem them to not have enough value.Comment -
Mark my words, if you fade Arrietta every start this season you will end up +u.Comment -
Getting hammeredComment -
Padres down 5-1 game over lol LT is a fraud and people if they haven't already need to stop tailing his plays. He should be ashamed of himself. U have people losing real money following him and he continues to just throw darts. He doesn't even bet money no
Way a a person can just continue to throw away money because the number in a system tell him it has value. Nats are the hot team the better team and he goes with Padres hoping to stike lightening in a bottle. Why not just avoid the game or why didn't u just take the Cubs earlier -1.5 or the Yankees against the Twins those are good spots. There's a reason I'm destroying u in the contestComment -
If you some winners tomm LT mets -1.5 and Indians will destroy shields tomm, and keuchal should win at home against redsComment -
Brock... post your money plays over here at SBR , broComment -
Fuckk the "model"
Do proper handicapping and quit thinking you had value when you are losing tons of units
The way JJ scalps is infinitely superior to this bullshitComment
