MLB - Friday, 6/17/16

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Friday

Tigers -113 (DSI)
Tigers / Royals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)


YTD: 196-214-9, -12.22

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Cubs 66% (-194)
Mets 70% (-233)
Yankees 62% (-163)
Houston 71% (-245)
Dodgers 64% (-178)

Yes, I know it looks tempting to fade Arrieta at current market, I am on the fence on that one as of now.

[PorkChop]

Over on Ventura and Fulmer? Little surprised your numbers point to this over. Has to be heavy on Ventura assuming

[LT Profits]

Over on Ventura and Fulmer? Little surprised your numbers point to this over. Has to be heavy on Ventura assuming

Yep, Ventura blows. He has the fourth worst xFIP in the majors at 5.24, due in large part to dreadful ratio of 6.66 strikeouts vs. 4.44 walks per nine innings. That walk rate is also fourth worst in the majors. I love Fulmer but he is not Kershaw-good, he will allow a few runs eventually. Best thing is he does not even need to allow much with Ventura facing hot Detroit offense.

[Professor1215]

LT,

My model shows the Giants have some value. What factors scared you off of this?

And having Archer on my dynasty fantasy team, he has been a huge disappointment (1.44 WHIP) and continues to try and find himself.

[PorkChop]

Yep, Ventura blows. He has the fourth worst xFIP in the majors at 5.24, due in large part to dreadful ratio of 6.66 strikeouts vs. 4.44 walks per nine innings. That walk rate is also fourth worst in the majors. I love Fulmer but he is not Kershaw-good, he will allow a few runs eventually. Best thing is he does not even need to allow much with Ventura facing hot Detroit offense.

I'm going to argue back Detroit won't need more than 4/5 runs to win this game, if I see an 8.5 valuing I'm jumping on that under

[RavensFan2k3]

Nobody likes Seattle?

[RavensFan2k3]

I played Milwaukee yesterday, will play them again today

[ATLIEN6]

Detroit TT o4 @ -125, yes please thank you sir.

[Brock Landers]

60%ers:

Cubs 66% (-194)
Mets 70% (-233)
Yankees 62% (-163)
Houston 71% (-245)
Dodgers 64% (-178)

Yes, I know it looks tempting to fade Arrieta at current market, I am on the fence on that one as of now.

Where did you ever see the cubs at -194?!

[RavensFan2k3]

Where did you ever see the cubs at -194?!

It's HIS line

[RavensFan2k3]

Nobody likes Seattle?

Well I do

[LT Profits]

I'm going to argue back Detroit won't need more than 4/5 runs to win this game, if I see an 8.5 valuing I'm jumping on that under

Right but what does that have to do with anything? They won't choose to stop scoring just because they get to 5.

[LT Profits]

LT,

My model shows the Giants have some value. What factors scared you off of this?

And having Archer on my dynasty fantasy team, he has been a huge disappointment (1.44 WHIP) and continues to try and find himself.

I actually get Rays 55% (-122). I can't downgrade Archer after his 20 strikeouts vs. three walks his last two starts and he now has 96Ks for the season in 80 innings vs. 34 BBs. He SHOULD come around, his 3.51 xFIP is more than a full run lower than his ERA.

[LT Profits]

Nobody likes Seattle?

Model agrees with you, it has Seattle FAVORED 51% (-104). I am sitting it out though because Elias knows all the weaknesses of Seattle lineup, so he could pitch over his head this one game.

[ATLIEN6]

LT, your boy Gray is pitching today..any reason why Rockies +108 isnt on the board?

[Professor1215]

I actually get Rays 55% (-122). I can't downgrade Archer after his 20 strikeouts vs. three walks his last two starts and he now has 96Ks for the season in 80 innings vs. 34 BBs. He SHOULD come around, his 3.51 xFIP is more than a full run lower than his ERA.

I hope you are right! Thanks for the feedback!

[LT Profits]

I played Milwaukee yesterday, will play them again today

Not enough value for me, in fact, Dodgers look like underpriced favorite. Urias might actually go six innings tonight, which would help a lot.

[LT Profits]

LT, your boy Gray is pitching today..any reason why Rockies +108 isnt on the board?

Yeah, I was quite surprised model spit out Miami 51%.

Rockies big edge in starting pitcher (11% edge in run supression), but apparently Miami having a lot of little edges elsewhere was enough to offset that.

[RavensFan2k3]

Not enough value for me, in fact, Dodgers look like underpriced favorite. Urias might actually go six innings tonight, which would help a lot.

You also said Dodgers was your only 60%er yesterday, so that doesn't mean much.

[LT Profits]

You also said Dodgers was your only 60%er yesterday, so that doesn't mean much.

Didn't Milwaukee have a bit of value yesterday?

[LT Profits]

Didn't Milwaukee have a bit of value yesterday?

Nope I just checked, I had Dodgers 65% (-186) yesterday and Milwaukee got pounded and closed at +137. Brewers won but they had terrible value, it was a -EV long term proposition.

[RavensFan2k3]

Nope I just checked, I had Dodgers 65% (-186) yesterday and Milwaukee got pounded and closed at +137. Brewers won but they had terrible value, it was a -EV long term proposition.

I guess this is where we differ in philosophies because I'm not sure what long term propositions have to do with that one game in time.

also i think you have Urias rated way too high

[LT Profits]

I guess this is where we differ in philosophies because I'm not sure what long term propositions have to do with that one game in time.

also i think you have Urias rated way too high

Have we met?

Long Term probabilities are the ONLY thing that matter and is the entire point of the model.

[Brock Landers]

It's HIS line

WTF is HIS line??

[RavensFan2k3]

Have we met?

Long Term probabilities are the ONLY thing that matter and is the entire point of the model.

LOL I know thats how your model is set up, I just don't fully agree with it.

[chargers4222]

LT,

My model shows the Giants have some value. What factors scared you off of this?

And having Archer on my dynasty fantasy team, he has been a huge disappointment (1.44 WHIP) and continues to try and find himself.

wow, you have a model too, huh? modelmania on this forum, it's amazing we're not all rich by now with all of your objective statistical analysis that continually profits every single time

[juicername]

WTF is HIS line??

Really? Nearly 37k posts on a sports betting forum and you're asking this?

[homerbush]

LOL I know thats how your model is set up, I just don't fully agree with it.

The biggest problem I have is when I hear the term Rest of Season Projection. It might be great when betting futures or win totals but when there are 90+ games left it means nothing to me for one specific game.

[LT Profits]

The biggest problem I have is when I hear the term Rest of Season Projection. It might be great when betting futures or win totals but when there are 90+ games left it means nothing to me for one specific game.

Look at it this way: assume that the model is close to accurate and you bet the Brewers +137 yesterday. Great, you won that ONE bet, but if you make that same bet 100 times, you can be expected to lose 65% of the time, which has a breakeven point of +186. So continually accepting +137 is a recipe for disaster.

Those are the kinds of things people that bet every day of their lives like me need to focus on.

[LT Profits]

And speaking of value, I pulled the trigger fading Arrieta and also bet the Padres again.

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Additions

6 MLB Plays Friday

Pirates +217 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Phillies UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Yankees / Twins UNDER 8.5 -115 (Heritage)
Tigers -113 (DSI)
Tigers / Royals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Padres +151 (Heritage)

[mr. leisure]

How about the over in the cubs game ?

[RavensFan2k3]

Look at it this way: assume that the model is close to accurate and you bet the Brewers +137 yesterday. Great, you won that ONE bet, but if you make that same bet 100 times, you can be expected to lose 65% of the time, which has a breakeven point of +186. So continually accepting +137 is a recipe for disaster.

Those are the kinds of things people that bet every day of their lives like me need to focus on.

It doesnt make any sense to look at it that way, because we aren't making that same bet 100 times! Lol that game is over, we're on to new games today. Never will you be betting the same exact game with the same exact pitchers and with the same exact line every day. So why does it matter if based on your mode they lose 65% of the time if they're only playing once. I also disagree they lose 65% of time given everything is the exact same

[RavensFan2k3]

6 MLB Plays Friday

Pirates +217 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Phillies UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Yankees / Twins UNDER 8.5 -115 (Heritage)
Tigers -113 (DSI)
Tigers / Royals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Padres +151 (Heritage)

Padres might not be such a bad bet today. Why is that gamr starting so late? 10:40 est?