MLB - Friday, 6/17/16

[mikefan1034]

http://contests.sportsbookreview.com/mikefan1034-vs-lt-profits-challenge-challenge-5726/

[juicername]

Check the contest I'm with LT I'll bury u as well u broke dik mush

You are doing well in the contest so congrats for that, even more reason not to be an obnoxious asshole. And how you can say

He should be ashamed of himself. U have people losing real money following him and he continues to just throw darts. He doesn't even bet money no

with your "fade threads" is beyond laughable.

[unusialsusp5]

Check the contest I'm with LT I'll bury u as well u broke dik mush

i would make mincemeat out of you. you're just another chalk eating dog. profits will be plus units by aug 1. his model has flaws but he sticks to his numbers and doesn't press or stray when in a bad streak. it will correct itself. get in his weekly contest again and see how you do. your 20 pt donation will be well distributed.

[mikefan1034]

i would make mincemeat out of you. you're just another chalk eating dog. profits will be plus units by aug 1. his model has flaws but he sticks to his numbers and doesn't press or stray when in a bad streak. it will correct itself. get in his weekly contest again and see how you do. your 20 pt donation will be well distributed.

All I got out of that was blah blah blah.

[Da Manster!]

Just my $0.02 on this subject...I've been a member on this forum a long time (since 2007) and have always respected and liked LTProfits...Hell, I usually kid around with him and refer to him as LTDeficits (which kind of annoys him and because he's usually in the red) but all in good fun...anyhow, there nothing wrong with using a math model, objective and quantitative data, empirical data, computations, analysis, etc. and whatever else goes into the equation as a supplement to making a gambling decision...it shouldn't be the be all and end all of handicapping...where LT and I part ways is the fact that he doesn't watch any games or teams!......he just uses his "model"....he's already admitted this in several posts over the years in different threads...once again, he doesn't follow the sports, teams, or even watches them on TV...maybe once in a while but thats about it...I just can't comprehend how this possible...every sport I gamble on I watch the teams, games, etc. and follow up on them religiously....LT, feel free to correct me if I mispoke...not trying to pile on, bro but just give members a better idea of why you bet so haphazardly....

[Rich Boy]

I think a better way to determine if LT's model is still more efficient than the market is watch the closing line versus the line he is getting. In most cases when I get up in the morning here on the west coast a lot of his plays are 10+ cents in his favor, and rarely do I find the lines moving against him.

Thats the best indicator vs final scores which is all variance and luck, but like he mentions in the long term that value will show through. What is happening right now is EXTREMELY unlikely keep that in mind. The odds of under performing like this even if you are picking blindly is low and it wont last forever, its just extreme variance in the wrong direction

If LT flipped every one of his plays and was up big but got a poor line vs the closer people wouldnt notice because they only look at the final scores and they would praise him and his model for all the wins but its just luck and wont hold up in the long run.

[JayDr3am]

Just my $0.02 on this subject...I've been a member on this forum a long time (since 2007) and have always respected and liked LTProfits...Hell, I usually kid around with him and refer to him as LTDeficits (which kind of annoys him and because he's usually in the red) but all in good fun...anyhow, there nothing wrong with using a math model, objective and quantitative data, empirical data, computations, analysis, etc. and whatever else goes into the equation as a supplement to making a gambling decision...it shouldn't be the be all and end all of handicapping...where LT and I part ways is the fact that he doesn't watch any games or teams!......he just uses his "model"....he's already admitted this in several posts over the years in different threads...once again, he doesn't follow the sports, teams, or even watches them on TV...maybe once in a while but thats about it...I just can't comprehend how this possible...every sport I gamble on I watch the teams, games, etc. and follow up on them religiously....LT, feel free to correct me if I mispoke...not trying to pile on, bro but just give members a better idea of why you bet so haphazardly....

ok now this explains alot.

[pilebuck13]

U guys go so hard on T when it's obvious he is not going to care your not going to get a rise out of him he's respectful even when u absolutely pick and slam every move he makes....obvious it's a hobby for the guy just fade or leave him alone lol it's so simple

[Sam Odom]

Sammy is a LT fan

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Just my $0.02 on this subject...I've been a member on this forum a long time (since 2007) and have always respected and liked LTProfits...Hell, I usually kid around with him and refer to him as LTDeficits (which kind of annoys him and because he's usually in the red) but all in good fun...anyhow, there nothing wrong with using a math model, objective and quantitative data, empirical data, computations, analysis, etc. and whatever else goes into the equation as a supplement to making a gambling decision...it shouldn't be the be all and end all of handicapping...where LT and I part ways is the fact that he doesn't watch any games or teams!......he just uses his "model"....he's already admitted this in several posts over the years in different threads...once again, he doesn't follow the sports, teams, or even watches them on TV...maybe once in a while but thats about it...I just can't comprehend how this possible...every sport I gamble on I watch the teams, games, etc. and follow up on them religiously....LT, feel free to correct me if I mispoke...not trying to pile on, bro but just give members a better idea of why you bet so haphazardly....

i agree with a lot of what you say but you don't have to watch one inning of baseball to be a good capper. if watching games made you a good capper, charles barkley would be a billionaire from sports betting but we all know he's the biggest square when it comes to gambling.

[JayDr3am]

U guys go so hard on T when it's obvious he is not going to care your not going to get a rise out of him he's respectful even when u absolutely pick and slam every move he makes....obvious it's a hobby for the guy just fade or leave him alone lol it's so simple

this is what happens when you have a cult-like following pile lol take a look at lebron when he doesnt lead his team to success. they slander his name and burn his jersey. on the other hand when hes dropping 40 and winning, they love him. its just how it goes.

[funnyb25]

1-6...I'm finding it hard to believe even LT is betting this garbage with real cash..

[RavensFan2k3]

1-6...I'm finding it hard to believe even LT is betting this garbage with real cash..

Lol what

[funnyb25]

Lol what

whats up?

[funnyb25]

Nothing is even close...these totals losing by 20 runs...tigers losing by 20 runs...

[funnyb25]

how come reds arent a play at +240? Seems like that should be a play... Huge dog...prolly win 1 out of 20 times...should be a model play no?

lock

[LT Profits]

YEP! I suck, now approaching season low again.

[LT Profits]

Nothing is even close...these totals losing by 20 runs...tigers losing by 20 runs...

Tigers Over was the 1 winner

[LT Profits]

I WISH I was not betting with real money.

But that magnifies the importance of not over-betting, I could stand streaks like this at 2.5% per game. Still have a lot left over from last MLB season and had winning years in NBA and NHL. Just need to turn this fawking shit around.

[LT Profits]

Someone is going to have to explain this to me

He is saying that over 414 plays at -105 odds (dime lines), you are paying 20.7 units in juice.

[LT Profits]

Worst info Ever.......

How could it be "Worst info ever" when nothing in that post was really an opinion? I was rattling off Ventura's terrible stats, which were FACTS. I can't help it if he turns into Cy Young when I bet against him.

[LT Profits]

Tigers / Royals OVER 8 -110

the only play i tailed.

cheers

You lucky bastard! (Wish it was my only play too).

[LT Profits]

Just my $0.02 on this subject...I've been a member on this forum a long time (since 2007) and have always respected and liked LTProfits...Hell, I usually kid around with him and refer to him as LTDeficits (which kind of annoys him and because he's usually in the red) but all in good fun...anyhow, there nothing wrong with using a math model, objective and quantitative data, empirical data, computations, analysis, etc. and whatever else goes into the equation as a supplement to making a gambling decision...it shouldn't be the be all and end all of handicapping...where LT and I part ways is the fact that he doesn't watch any games or teams!......he just uses his "model"....he's already admitted this in several posts over the years in different threads...once again, he doesn't follow the sports, teams, or even watches them on TV...maybe once in a while but thats about it...I just can't comprehend how this possible...every sport I gamble on I watch the teams, games, etc. and follow up on them religiously....LT, feel free to correct me if I mispoke...not trying to pile on, bro but just give members a better idea of why you bet so haphazardly....

You are referring to baseball only, which I find insanely boring to watch until the playoffs. I watch other sports all the time.

But by the same token, that means I have no biases in MLB, and that was probably a key to the +93 units last year. I am using the same model and the same approach this season, it BETTER start correcting itself.

[LT Profits]

U guys go so hard on T when it's obvious he is not going to care your not going to get a rise out of him he's respectful even when u absolutely pick and slam every move he makes....obvious it's a hobby for the guy just fade or leave him alone lol it's so simple

Not quite, I have not worked in the 9 to 5 world in 16 years

[pilebuck13]

Not quite, I have not worked in the 9 to 5 world in 16 years

Boss