Home Team System Idea

[Machine Choice]

You'll have to successfully avoid the axe about 6 times (ie. survive 6 months without seeing a bad losing streak) for this to be profitable. You might do it, but probably won't.

I've already shown that last year system failure occurred only 5 times out 270. And it was on the worst teams in baseball, which I would never pick. I like my chances here.

[themajormt]

** I might be drunk right now but I vividly remember the Yankees getting pissed on the other night and Nick Swisher pitching?? Am I wrong??

[themajormt]

I might have misunderstood your response but what I MEANT in my original post was your bet yesterday was not TB's first home game to start a series... So it should be bet #2

[reno cool]

Bankroll: $3,120
Started: $3,142
Goal: $7,223

Thursday
Tampa -103
$64 to win $62

Consider the idea that we don't know the odds you might be laying. Especially since you don't intend on betting real bad teams. You might need a much bigger bankroll.

[Machine Choice]

I might have misunderstood your response but what I MEANT in my original post was your bet yesterday was not TB's first home game to start a series... So it should be bet #2

It doesn't have to be the first game of a series. Some series are 10 games long. I'm betting that a team will not lose six in a row at home, regardless of what point I enter the series.

[dwest718]

I feel really stupid for asking this question... but why are you tripling your 2nd bet? Shouldn't you be betting 43.20 for your system to work how you say it's supposed to?

[Machine Choice]

I feel really stupid for asking this question... but why are you tripling your 2nd bet? Shouldn't you be betting 43.20 for your system to work how you say it's supposed to?

For these reasons:

1. I lost my $22 wager today and I need it back.
2. I also missed out on $20 in profit that I had hoped to gain today. I need that too.
3. I also need $20 of profit tomorrow, since I want to capture $20 of profit EVERY DAY

So add that up. I need to win $62 tomorrow.

[dwest718]

For these reasons:

1. I lost my $22 wager today and I need it back.
2. I also missed out on $20 in profit that I had hoped to gain today. I need that too.
3. I also need $20 of profit tomorrow, since I want to capture $20 of profit EVERY DAY

So add that up. I need to win $62 tomorrow.

Ahhh did not account for the $20 of profit tomorrow. Thanks for clearing this up. Interesting system. Don't have the bankroll to tail right now.

[G's pks]

Machine here is my take.... You are a good capper....the flunkies that followed you have disappeared... This system is not what you really want to do... And it will bore you to tears... The teams will level out soon and you should have a better feel for everything... Or just do what I do a few games a week... Hard betting every single day.... I am 2-0 this week... Only 5-3 total for baseball this year...but I will take it...

[Reno Gambler]

I'm using a similar system based on the top 10 home records of 2008( nym,nyy,bos,phil.,laa,chw,mil,min,tb,chc )
So far it looks like this:

1 game : 5-2 w-chc,tb,mil,laa,chw
2 game: 2-0 w-min, nym

nyy 4/16, bos 4/17, phil 4/17. First gms of 6.

[mathdotcom]

You're a dumbass. Sorry.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

As someone who views selective posters on SBR, I laugh when posters give their records when they are winning, but when things get rough, the running record is no longer displayed. If someone does not post their record and spreadsheet their plays, you are probably following/tailing a BS artist. Long term return involves both winning and losing streaks. Money management is the key to long term success. The parlay artists, the bet 9% of your bankroll johnnies, are doomed.

Opposing points of view are welcomed.

[genero]

I might have misunderstood your response but what I MEANT in my original post was your bet yesterday was not TB's first home game to start a series... So it should be bet #2

do you have a system major? we could use your help

[peeiempee]

I would factor in the RPI on this chase, but no a bad idea, any chases more than 3 or 4 is too much for me. I like the idea, might just have to modify it a little.

[reno cool]

As someone who views selective posters on SBR, I laugh when posters give their records when they are winning, but when things get rough, the running record is no longer displayed. If someone does not post their record and spreadsheet their plays, you are probably following/tailing a BS artist. Long term return involves both winning and losing streaks. Money management is the key to long term success. The parlay artists, the bet 9% of your bankroll johnnies, are doomed.

Opposing points of view are welcomed.

it's just the nature of things. People who do poorly will quit, or at least quit posting records. Those who get lucky for a longer stretch will keep posting records.
This is why it's dangerous to give much credit even to somebody with an impressive long standing record.

[Matt Rain]

This one will need backtesting too....but I'm curious. We know that overall home teams statistically win the majority of their games (last year there were only 8 out of 30 teams that finished below .500 at home). What if you started a 6-game chase on every home team that had at least 6 games remaining on their current home-stand? I'll bet that no team last year lost six games in a row at home (except possibly the Nationals or Seattle).

When you win, if the team you won with still has six more games on their home-stand, you stay with them. If they don't, you move to another team that has six dates remaining on their home-stand.

A couple of modifiers: if the juice on any given game was more than -140, I'd play the RL in order to make the system more profitable. Also, we might decide to remove certain teams from this system (like Washington this year).

[Matt Rain]

Under this system, if it does not fail, it is a mathematical certainty that I will net a season profit of $4,081.

[Matt Rain]

Are you trying to outdumb Sammy Overkill?

[jmathes]

I backtested it for 2008.

There were 270 homestands in MLB last year that were at least 6 games or longer. In those homestands, only 5 times did the home team lose six times in a row. That means this system had a 98.2% success rate.

Now here's the good part. Even on the 5 times that the system failed, there were 3 to 6 other teams you could have chosen to chase instead of the losing one. Here are the teams that lost 6 times in a row at home:
Reds
Tigers
Pirates
Padres
Nationals

Given how bad those teams were last year, it is highly unlikely that any of us would have chosen to chase these teams. We would have chosen one of the other 3 to 6 teams that were available on that date. Therefore, I give this system a less than 1% probability of failure.

As such, I will begin using it today. I am willing to chase all the way to six games if necessary, which is critical to making this system work.

My profit goals are these: $20 per day until All-Star beak (that's all I can afford to chase right now), and then $33 per day after All-Star break since by then my bankroll will have grown enough to chase $33.

After a loss, I will not only chase the lost wager amount, but I will also chase the lost profit from that day as well as the profit for the current day.

Under this system, if it does not fail, it is a mathematical certainty that I will net a season profit of $4,081.

Machine, I am confused here. You came into my thread a while back and now your trying to do the same thing...don't really understand that at all.

This is the Martingale betting system where you double your bet after a loss. If you have never lost more than 6 bets in a row, you haven't sports gambled longer than a few months. At $20 per win, you need to win 350 bets to get to $10,000 (starting from $3,000). You said you hit on average about 60-63%. I'll assume that's true. That means that every one of your bets has a 37-40% chance of losing. The chances of that happening 7 times in a row before you reach 350 bets are better than you realize. I'm sure Ganchrow could spit out the probability. Good luck though.

[genero]

Machine, I am confused here. You came into my thread a while back and now your trying to do the same thing...don't really understand that at all.


what are the rules for entering someones thread? do we have to be members? or sign up or this open forum

[mathdotcom]

Its funny, someone said in this thread... eventually the Cubs will lose 6 straight at home and you'll go bust.

Looks like it might happen early this season!

[TheLock]

The number of posters hoping other people fail far outweighs those who are wishing others the best.

Some of you act like he's gambling YOUR money. It's comical.

[jmathes]

Machine, I am confused here. You came into my thread a while back and now your trying to do the same thing...don't really understand that at all.


what are the rules for entering someones thread? do we have to be members? or sign up or this open forum

you have no idea what your talking about genero. i started a very similar thread and he tried to tell me what i already knew. why don't you wipe that white stuff off your face and understand whats going on before you jump in someone's business.

The number of posters hoping other people fail far outweighs those who are wishing others the best.

Some of you act like he's gambling YOUR money. It's comical.

good luck machine. i really do wish you the best of luck!

[donjuan]

The number of posters hoping other people fail far outweighs those who are wishing others the best.

Some of you act like he's gambling YOUR money. It's comical.

Anyone who is knocking this probably wants him to save his money. It's pretty clear to anyone with a pulse that it's moronic, so if you encourage it you are either a moron, yourself, or hope he loses money. Which one are you?

[Machine Choice]

Machine, I am confused here. You came into my thread a while back and now your trying to do the same thing...don't really understand that at all.

Concerning your thread, you said that each of your plays had a 60-63% of winning. But what I'm doing here is different. Under this system, one play actually means one 6-game series. Under the conditions I described earlier, I've already shown that the chances of success are at least 98% and possibly more.

Tampa won last night, so this system has its first series win and is 1-0. For anyone who has at least $3,000 to chase $20 bets, I stand by this system am confident it will hold up long-term, as long as the right teams are played. However, my goal is to make more than $4,000 this season, which is not possible if I just use this system using the money management principles I described. Instead, I am doing 2-team parlays every day.

[genero]

oh yeah thats good

[donjuan]

I've already shown that the chances of success are at least 98%

No, you haven't.

Instead, I am doing 2-team parlays every day.

What percentage of these are you proclaiming to hit this year?