Home Team System Idea

[Machine Choice]

This one will need backtesting too....but I'm curious. We know that overall home teams statistically win the majority of their games (last year there were only 8 out of 30 teams that finished below .500 at home). What if you started a 6-game chase on every home team that had at least 6 games remaining on their current home-stand? I'll bet that no team last year lost six games in a row at home (except possibly the Nationals or Seattle).

When you win, if the team you won with still has six more games on their home-stand, you stay with them. If they don't, you move to another team that has six dates remaining on their home-stand.

A couple of modifiers: if the juice on any given game was more than -140, I'd play the RL in order to make the system more profitable. Also, we might decide to remove certain teams from this system (like Washington this year).

[Cassidy]

Sounds like a JM variant. But chasing 6 games for recover and win a unit each, I guess a series loss would result close to broke, especially buying - lines.

Expecting an average of -120 each, a chase system to recover and win 1 unit each, being $100 = 1 unit, the risk for each consecutive wager would be

1/ 120
2/ 264
3/ 581
4/ 1278
5/ 2811
6/ 6184

Total series loss is $11.238 or 112.38 single unit wins. A bit scary

[Machine Choice]

I backtested it for 2008.

There were 270 homestands in MLB last year that were at least 6 games or longer. In those homestands, only 5 times did the home team lose six times in a row. That means this system had a 98.2% success rate.

Now here's the good part. Even on the 5 times that the system failed, there were 3 to 6 other teams you could have chosen to chase instead of the losing one. Here are the teams that lost 6 times in a row at home:
Reds
Tigers
Pirates
Padres
Nationals

Given how bad those teams were last year, it is highly unlikely that any of us would have chosen to chase these teams. We would have chosen one of the other 3 to 6 teams that were available on that date. Therefore, I give this system a less than 1% probability of failure.

As such, I will begin using it today. I am willing to chase all the way to six games if necessary, which is critical to making this system work.

My profit goals are these: $20 per day until All-Star beak (that's all I can afford to chase right now), and then $33 per day after All-Star break since by then my bankroll will have grown enough to chase $33.

After a loss, I will not only chase the lost wager amount, but I will also chase the lost profit from that day as well as the profit for the current day.

Under this system, if it does not fail, it is a mathematical certainty that I will net a season profit of $4,081.

[Drillbit]

When will you have your plays for this system? I am going to tail this one.

[Machine Choice]

There are five teams available today: Pittsburgh, Mets*, Cubs, Tampa*, Seattle

*Even though the Mets and Tampa only have five games remaining on their homestands, they both qualify for the system because they both lost yesterday.

I like all these teams at home to hit at least once over six games, therefore I will probably take the one with the cheapest line.

[BetterBetter]

This sounds too good to be true. But I can't figure out why it wouldn't work. What percentage of your roll do you risk on the first game? I have a small bankroll by everyones standards on here so would this still be worth my while? What percentage of your bankroll do you expect to profit on each series (assuming it wins)?

[Machine Choice]

This sounds too good to be true. But I can't figure out why it wouldn't work. What percentage of your roll do you risk on the first game? I have a small bankroll by everyones standards on here so would this still be worth my while? What percentage of your bankroll do you expect to profit on each series (assuming it wins)?

The initail goal (1H of season) is to win $20 every day, even on the days that you lose. Assuming -120 juice for a typical home fave, you need an initial chasing bankroll (assuming you're doing a 6-game chase) of $3,142 up until All-Star break. After that you will need more because you're trying to win $33 per day instead of $20. But your bankroll will have grown by then so it won't be a problem.

My season goal is $4,081. If your goal is half of that, your initial bankroll only needs to be $1,571, etc, etc, adjust proportionately.

[Machine Choice]

Starting bankroll: $3142*
(I had to deposit my tax rebate check and stimulus payment, thanks Obama!)

Tampa -109
$22 to win $20

[Machine Choice]

The beauty of this system is that it prevents me from spending two hours handicapping only to see my pitcher get pulled in the 3rd inning for injury. The only handicapping needed in this system is to avoid ice-cold teams. That's it. It's neat, tidy, and will net over $4K with hardly any effort involved at all.

[ScreaminPain]

Although I'm typically NOT big fan of chases, i'm using a variation of this method currently.

I've selected the TOP TEN teams from last year to chase. To be included in that list, they must have had one of the best HOME record in baseball. NONE of these teams lost 6 home games in a row last year.

I'm chasing them to NOT get swept at home in 6 straight games.

[The_Kid]

Interesting stuff, Machine. Will be interested in tracking this over the season. BOL with this.

[ebbearsfb1]

2 interesting systems going now... seem to net some serious cash in the long run

[genero]

yeah lets see if it works has to better than the last one i am on it too

[donjuan]

Lol, another Martingale fail.

[DMB40]

what if the home team wins a few of the games but by 1 run. then you get smoked

[diogee]

Interesting Machine...I could never have the heart for the 4th, 5th, or 6th games for sure. Rays won their first game of this home stand but still had 6 more. Are you discounting the first game of the home stand if they have more than 6 games or just a 1 time thing?

[mathdotcom]

Unreal the stupidity on this board.

This is like saying "when was the last time the Lakers lost to the Celtics by exactly 5 pts? So I am making a pure profit by taking them at +4.5 with a better price!".

As usual with any martingale, your chances of losing are slim but when you do lose, you are completely fukkin barreled in which outweighs 10 years of getting away with it.

[Nicky Santoro]

this is so freaking silly, its not funny.. why not just go to casino and bet 2 columns in roulette. i am sure you wont lose 6 in a row there for a long time.. you have about a 64% chance of winning each spin.. or even better, why not go to the track and bet the fav in 6 straight races.. i am definite it will be rare as hell to lose 6 straight big fav horses.

this is silly, because you will win more often than not of course, but when that time comes and the CUBS do lose 6 straight at home, you will give back everything you ever won, x 100.. not worth the risk..

[bobbybux]

what happened to the 2 team parlay's?

[Machine Choice]

As usual with any martingale, your chances of losing are slim but when you do lose, you are completely fukkin barreled in which outweighs 10 years of getting away with it.

If I got away with this system for 10 years I would make almost $50K. If it failed once I would lose $3,142. I'll take that swap.

As a matter of fact, if this system only won this year, and then lost next year, I still will have profited.

As for the roulette comparison, if there was a roulette wheel with a 99% advantage to a player who only needed $3,162 to beat it, you can bet no casino would have it.

[mathdotcom]

If I got away with this system for 10 years I would make almost $50K. If it failed once I would lose $3,142. I'll take that swap.

As a matter of fact, if this system only won this year, and then lost next year, I still will have profited.

As for the roulette comparison, if there was a roulette wheel with a 99% advantage to a player who only needed $3,162 to beat it, you can bet no casino would have it.

[donjuan]

If I got away with this system for 10 years I would make almost $50K. If it failed once I would lose $3,142. I'll take that swap.

As a matter of fact, if this system only won this year, and then lost next year, I still will have profited.

As for the roulette comparison, if there was a roulette wheel with a 99% advantage to a player who only needed $3,162 to beat it, you can bet no casino would have it.

Wow. Please get a vasectomy yesterday.

[Machine Choice]

Wow. Please get a vasectomy yesterday.

I encourage you to continue your incredible roll of capping and winning that exactly zero of us have ever seen.

[reno cool]

Wait you're saying that it lost 5 times out of 270. But you might have decided not to bet those 5? come on.

You'd be better off raising your bets on a team on a losing streak regardless. but no need to double up. its ok to accept some losses.

[Machine Choice]

Bankroll: $3,120
Started: $3,142
Goal: $7,223

Thursday
Tampa -103
$64 to win $62

[donjuan]

I encourage you to continue your incredible roll of capping and winning that exactly zero of us have ever seen.

Wat?

[Machine Choice]

Well there's not a whole lot to talk about here in this thread. The system is self-explanatory. I will either get to the goal or I will bust. The other possibility is that I will get bored and stop doing this. The freedom that I have is that if I lose $3,142 I'm not sure I would feel much different than I do right now.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Enjoy bankruptcy.

[Machine Choice]

Enjoy bankruptcy.

Thanks.

[mathdotcom]

So if you lose $3k it's all good..... but you'll shit your pants with glee if you win your $60 bet on the Rays?

[themajormt]

**, this system shouldve started on Monday if you chose TB.. You came in on 2nd game of series, you obv are probably aware of that but just wanted to point it out. GL!

[reno cool]

Well there's not a whole lot to talk about here in this thread. The system is self-explanatory. I will either get to the goal or I will bust. The other possibility is that I will get bored and stop doing this. The freedom that I have is that if I lose $3,142 I'm not sure I would feel much different than I do right now.

this is what I would bet on.

[Machine Choice]

So if you lose $3k it's all good..... but you'll shit your pants with glee if you win your $60 bet on the Rays?

No. I won't feel anything. But on May 15 when I cash out the first $600, and then I do it again on June 15, July 15, August 15, and Sept 15.....I might be a little pleased.

[mathdotcom]

You'll have to successfully avoid the axe about 6 times (ie. survive 6 months without seeing a bad losing streak) for this to be profitable. You might do it, but probably won't.

[Machine Choice]

**, this system shouldve started on Monday if you chose TB.. You came in on 2nd game of series, you obv are probably aware of that but just wanted to point it out. GL!

Tampa lost yesterday, that was Day 1 (even though I didn't bet them). If they had won yesterday, I would not have been able to use them today because they would have only five games left in the homestand. The point is that I am betting they will not lose six in a row at home. Now they have four games against the White Sox. If they win just one of those games, I will recover all lost wagers and the lost profits. Then the streak will start over with a new team.