keeping track of my MLB record moving forward.. I'm going to KILL the 2nd half of the MLB season starting off with these picks!!! Ill have write ups for each picks..
TOR BLUE JAYS -1407:05PM
RISK $140 TO WIN $100
I'm laying the BIG number once again Thursday...despite my HATE for risking anything close to -150...BUT...as we saw last night with the 11-2 smoke show in TOR...and I once again think the price is more than warranted today.
We saw how poorly the Sox hit last night up against a 40 year-old LHP Mark Buehrle who they KNOW...so forgive me if I'm feeling confident in a young prospect who Boston has NEVER seen and who will ALSO be coming from the left-side tonight.. I'm talking about Rookie LHP Matt Boyd who absolutely SHUT DOWN one of the most dangerous teams in ALL of baseball against left-handers...the Texas Rangers. Boyd threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings on June 27th against the 3rd ranked offense against LHP... and now will face one of the WORST offenses against LHP...the Red Sox ranking 17th in runs scored...but a hilarious 28th in batting average...so NO, I'm not expecting much from them tonight...
Toronto? Oh, they're only the #1 offense against LHP hitting .306 and with experience against Boston SP Wade Miley? In Toronto? It's not often the Jays have the "better" bullpen...but they do as they've improved a lot. BOS ranks 25th among ALL the bullpens in runs allowed...which is the tell-tale sign that the Sox relievers have NO shot of holding down this offense.
I'll play ON the Blue Jays again here...going for the 2-2 split tonight against a BAD Red Sox team missing some key parts...
BAL ORIOLES -1157:05PM
RISK $115 TO WIN $100
The OPENING price was what actually caught my eye as I value what "the books" think about a particular line/number. PRICE can tell you a lot about what the linemakers are thinking and when I saw Gallardo vs Gausman and the O's priced as a -130 FAVORITE...after dropping 2/3 at home against a HOT Rangers team.... It's clear to ME who "they" like...Baltimore...and I'm not at all concerned with the line move "down."
I'm FADING Yovani Gallardo AND the Rangers inept bullpen tonight as I'm fairly certain some regression is in order for the Brewers right-hander. His numbers are sick...and not maintainable... 2.72 ERA / 1.16 WHIP... But his 7-6 record and near 4.00 CAREER ERA give me all I need to know. Digging deeper though, Gallardo is FAR from "dominant" on the road going just 3-4 with his ERA almost a full RUN higher away from Arlington.
The Orioles HAMMER RH pitching ranking 5th in baseball with 277 runs scored...but they crush EVEN MORE when playing at HOME in Camden Yards...coming in as the #2 offense at home in MLB...a massive home field advantage for sure.
I don't love the Rangers against RHP despite hitting well recently and I think Gausman can hold them down tonight. The 27th ranked Texas bullpen gives me even more confidence knowing how poorly they've been all year...especially on the road. The Orioles 'pen is SOLID...Ranked 5th in baseball with an impressive 2.82 ERA this year
OVER 9 COL/ARI -1109:40PM
RISK $110 TO WIN $100
I'll be playing A LOT of OVERs in the 2nd half of the season when it comes to playing IN Arizona...the building slowly beginning to be recognized as "Coors Field South". The game is actually being played at Chase Field in Phoenix...a place that's been OVER haven for multiple reasons this year and I couldn't find ONE reason to play on the UNDER...so, let's go.
It's one of my TOP fade candidates from 2014...right-hander Jeremy Hellickson getting the start tonight in AZ and while he's thrown "OK" in spots this year, there's a reason he's throwing to a 5.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP and it's actually SCARY to think he's thrown WELL and still has an ERA over 5. It gets much worse though from my perspective... Hellickson will be looking to bounce back from a 10 hit, 7-run drubbing he suffered in his LAST start to an offense that has SUCKED over the last month...the SD Padres. So no...confidence will NOT be present for the D'Backs RH'er and with his ERA, walks, AND average WORSE at Chase Field? Hm.
Rockies LHP Chris Rusin is not looking any more promising tonight for the Rockies... He's ALSO coming off a 10-hit game...except that he was able to somehow limit the "damage" from an EARNED run perspective...still allowing 5 total runs! He's got a 6.28 ERA in June and he's just 1-2 with a 5.27 ERA on the road...where he's allowed 3x the amount of runs AND 5x the amount of HRs..while teams have also PUMMELED him hitting .322 against.
NOW at Chase field?? Could be trouble...but the bullpens MAKE this play with COL ranking DEAD LAST in both ERA and runs allowed and the D'Backs aren't any better off really... They're in the BOTTOM 10 in ERA and are 28th in runs allowed...the bottom line.. We get fireworks tonight.
TOR BLUE JAYS -1407:05PM
RISK $140 TO WIN $100
I'm laying the BIG number once again Thursday...despite my HATE for risking anything close to -150...BUT...as we saw last night with the 11-2 smoke show in TOR...and I once again think the price is more than warranted today.
We saw how poorly the Sox hit last night up against a 40 year-old LHP Mark Buehrle who they KNOW...so forgive me if I'm feeling confident in a young prospect who Boston has NEVER seen and who will ALSO be coming from the left-side tonight.. I'm talking about Rookie LHP Matt Boyd who absolutely SHUT DOWN one of the most dangerous teams in ALL of baseball against left-handers...the Texas Rangers. Boyd threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings on June 27th against the 3rd ranked offense against LHP... and now will face one of the WORST offenses against LHP...the Red Sox ranking 17th in runs scored...but a hilarious 28th in batting average...so NO, I'm not expecting much from them tonight...
Toronto? Oh, they're only the #1 offense against LHP hitting .306 and with experience against Boston SP Wade Miley? In Toronto? It's not often the Jays have the "better" bullpen...but they do as they've improved a lot. BOS ranks 25th among ALL the bullpens in runs allowed...which is the tell-tale sign that the Sox relievers have NO shot of holding down this offense.
I'll play ON the Blue Jays again here...going for the 2-2 split tonight against a BAD Red Sox team missing some key parts...
BAL ORIOLES -1157:05PM
RISK $115 TO WIN $100
The OPENING price was what actually caught my eye as I value what "the books" think about a particular line/number. PRICE can tell you a lot about what the linemakers are thinking and when I saw Gallardo vs Gausman and the O's priced as a -130 FAVORITE...after dropping 2/3 at home against a HOT Rangers team.... It's clear to ME who "they" like...Baltimore...and I'm not at all concerned with the line move "down."
I'm FADING Yovani Gallardo AND the Rangers inept bullpen tonight as I'm fairly certain some regression is in order for the Brewers right-hander. His numbers are sick...and not maintainable... 2.72 ERA / 1.16 WHIP... But his 7-6 record and near 4.00 CAREER ERA give me all I need to know. Digging deeper though, Gallardo is FAR from "dominant" on the road going just 3-4 with his ERA almost a full RUN higher away from Arlington.
The Orioles HAMMER RH pitching ranking 5th in baseball with 277 runs scored...but they crush EVEN MORE when playing at HOME in Camden Yards...coming in as the #2 offense at home in MLB...a massive home field advantage for sure.
I don't love the Rangers against RHP despite hitting well recently and I think Gausman can hold them down tonight. The 27th ranked Texas bullpen gives me even more confidence knowing how poorly they've been all year...especially on the road. The Orioles 'pen is SOLID...Ranked 5th in baseball with an impressive 2.82 ERA this year
OVER 9 COL/ARI -1109:40PM
RISK $110 TO WIN $100
I'll be playing A LOT of OVERs in the 2nd half of the season when it comes to playing IN Arizona...the building slowly beginning to be recognized as "Coors Field South". The game is actually being played at Chase Field in Phoenix...a place that's been OVER haven for multiple reasons this year and I couldn't find ONE reason to play on the UNDER...so, let's go.
It's one of my TOP fade candidates from 2014...right-hander Jeremy Hellickson getting the start tonight in AZ and while he's thrown "OK" in spots this year, there's a reason he's throwing to a 5.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP and it's actually SCARY to think he's thrown WELL and still has an ERA over 5. It gets much worse though from my perspective... Hellickson will be looking to bounce back from a 10 hit, 7-run drubbing he suffered in his LAST start to an offense that has SUCKED over the last month...the SD Padres. So no...confidence will NOT be present for the D'Backs RH'er and with his ERA, walks, AND average WORSE at Chase Field? Hm.
Rockies LHP Chris Rusin is not looking any more promising tonight for the Rockies... He's ALSO coming off a 10-hit game...except that he was able to somehow limit the "damage" from an EARNED run perspective...still allowing 5 total runs! He's got a 6.28 ERA in June and he's just 1-2 with a 5.27 ERA on the road...where he's allowed 3x the amount of runs AND 5x the amount of HRs..while teams have also PUMMELED him hitting .322 against.
NOW at Chase field?? Could be trouble...but the bullpens MAKE this play with COL ranking DEAD LAST in both ERA and runs allowed and the D'Backs aren't any better off really... They're in the BOTTOM 10 in ERA and are 28th in runs allowed...the bottom line.. We get fireworks tonight.
