How do You Bet on Baseball?

[jmathes]

I want to start this thread because I am looking for new ideas on good bankroll management for baseball. Since baseball has such a nasty moneyline I would like some of your ideas on how you bet your games. In the past I only make about 100 baseball bets a season under a few criteria: run line, -130 line or better, over/unders, & trend betting. My specialty is every other sport but baseball. Since May through August is a baseball only time of the year I would like to get more action. I am strictly a one pick a day person and do not get into chasing systems so don't include that on this thread. I have used a bankroll system similar to Heaven's Gate for my other sports during September through April. It is not such an aggressive approach to the HG one but yields about the same dollar return providing that I hit atleast 60%.

Please post your strategies or past successes on baseball betting here . I am trying to figure out the best way to get a bang for my buck. For many years I did flat betting before I came up with my system and realized I was losing thousands of dollars a year the old way.

Thanks alot!!!

[Crayzee]

my suggestion would be this-
if you want to bet favorites and only one a game
bet your favorite on the money line
but start witha set amount
say your set amount is fifty

say the team you want to bet on is minus 200

no do not lay 100 to win 50

lay 50 to win 25

now tomorrow your game is also a -200 favorite
lay 75 to win 37.50
if you win then the next day lay 107.50 to win
53.75

so your 3 day parlay has paid 53.75 for your initial 50 bet
then either start over or continue the same parlay as long as you feel comfortable

of course you could also bet dogs the same way or just individually
at 50 or whatever your pe game amount is

[yisman]

Pete Rose-style.

[jmathes]

Pete Rose-style.

great response

seriously though what is the best way to bet on baseball?

[Rich Boy]

There really is no "best way".

But if you want to profit just fade the yankees ML and you should do fine.

[InTheHole]

^unless they win 95 games

[Casperwaits]

I bet underdogs that lost the night before against a team that has won the night before. Considering that the ML is predicated on starting pitching mostly, and that pitchers do not pitch more than 7 innings in a game, if you go into the 7th inning with a tie score and both starting pitchers are out, that ML "edge" is now erased. Baseball is the one sport I have done well on, and my "system" has kept me profitable for the last 5 or so years. Try it for a whole season and see how well you do

[LT Profits]

^unless they win 95 games

You'd still profit if they win 95 games.

That means you'd be 67-95, and you gotta figure your average bet will be at least +150.

[BigBrownman]

if you like to play fav, but dont wanna lay too much try betting them -1, so if they happen to only win by 1 run you will push and not lose, and we all know that alot of fav win by 1 run!

[Dark Horse]

I have three ok systems, that I developed and forgot about, so how good could they be?

I just never had any passion for baseball, so instead of watching grass grow I'll probably end up where the ground thunders at the quarter horse races. But I did order the book The Book today.

====================================

[LETS GET IT]

....waits for good advice

I just started betting this year, mostly NFL and NBA, I had a pretty profitable NBA season but I did get cracked at first. Now that the NBA will be ending in a few months I'm trying to get into baseball but I don't know if I'm willing to take those inevitable losses that you will take when you first start betting on a sport.

I broke even through the whole NBA season up until about two weeks ago when I really started making money, I don't know if I can do the same for baseball...its rough man.

[milkshakeballa]

There really is no "best way".

But if you want to profit just fade the yankees ML and you should do fine.

I'm new, I'm sorry...I migh have the wrong defintion...

When you say fade the Yankees ML do you mean just bet the opposite of tha Yanks? Assuming all the action coming out of NY you will get good odds?

Sorry < Newb

[Rich Boy]

Yes, betting against the Yankees has been profitable for the last 4 seasons, and I don't see it being any different this year.

[Dark Horse]

....waits for good advice

I just started betting this year, mostly NFL and NBA, I had a pretty profitable NBA season but I did get cracked at first. Now that the NBA will be ending in a few months I'm trying to get into baseball but I don't know if I'm willing to take those inevitable losses that you will take when you first start betting on a sport.

I broke even through the whole NBA season up until about two weeks ago when I really started making money, I don't know if I can do the same for baseball...its rough man.

Get The Book. http://www.insidethebook.com/

Once you start developing your own systems you're on your way. And you'll guard them as well, because if you share them you give away your edge, and put in all that hard work for nothing.

For some reason horse handicappers can't wait to publish their breakthrough findings, instead of sitting on them for twenty years. It's hilarious. And then they wonder why they can't break +3%. I'm reading up on the horse betting literature, because plenty of their ideas can be transferred to other sports.

Anyway, get the Book.

[shantystar]

i dislike this game!

[jjgold]

Well so much parity now in sports you have to be crazy to bet favs, no pitcher is an automatic win either. Take a team with a few loses in a row getting + the number. I ain't smoking $250 blunts for nothing.

[Vince Carter]

haha jj

[veto]

find out when an awesome pitcher, on a team that has big bats, is pitching against a team thats been playing badly.

[LT Profits]

find out when an awesome pitcher, on a team that has big bats, is pitching against a team thats been playing badly.

Betting -200 favorites is NOT the way to go.

[Casperwaits]

Betting -200 favorites is NOT the way to go.

EXACTLY. Seriously, if you want value in any major sport, baseball is it. There are 162 games in a season and even the best pitchers on the best teams get lit up for 6-9 times a year. Betting on huge favorites is just not a smart move. I cannot tell you how many times a -200 favorite would get into the later innings, get pulled, and his relief corp would blow the game. BET UNDERDOGS. Trust me on this one.

[TPowell]

I'll probably go the same way I did with hockey, bet dogs with RLM

[pavyracer]

Here is how I bet baseball:

I only bet the alternate lines for dogs. If a dog is paying +125 to +150 to win by one run it usually pays +225 to +250 to win by 2 runs or more (-1.5 line). By using this method I only need to hit one of every three plays to make profit.

[MJFtheGenius]

run

[bigugly]

LT, I know betting dogs and small faves is your strategy, but I really don't think you can make that blanket statement about -200 faves. This statement might be based on the fact that the person has little experience betting baseball and you're trying to steer them away from a losing path, but I know for a fact that there are plenty of +EV plays with the big favorites.

[TheLock]

i dislike this game!

amazing analysis

[Tsoprano]

take the yankees ml everytime they play

[milkshakeballa]

Here is how I bet baseball:

I only bet the alternate lines for dogs. If a dog is paying +125 to +150 to win by one run it usually pays +225 to +250 to win by 2 runs or more (-1.5 line). By using this method I only need to hit one of every three plays to make profit.

What do you mean alternate lines for dogs?

Is that equivilent to "selling points" in basketball?

Also, how do you spot an RLM line?

[pavyracer]

It's a -1.5 line for a dog. The dog has to win by 2 runs or more to cash the bet thus the increased odds.

[jmathes]

What do you mean alternate lines for dogs?

Also, how do you spot an RLM line?

Milkshake, to spot a RLM I would read LT Profit's bog about it. If you can't find his blog you can go to my handicapping network and you can find him on my list. In a nutshell it is when more than 75% of the betting public is on a team and the line actually goes in the opposite direction. For example, this past Saturday, March 21st, there were 2 Reverse Line Movements on both the Lakers & Trailblazers game. The opening line was -6 for the Lakers and it actually moved down to -4 on some books. The opening line for the Trailblazers was -5 which also moved down 2 pts to -3. Both of these were pretty aggressive moves in the opposite direction of where the money was. Both teams covered ATS which added to the success of the RLM for the 2008-09 NBA season. Remember the most important factor is that more than 75% of the betting public must have their money on their side for it to work. This is one of the many questions I ask myself when capping my games for the day. What is the public betting on and how are the lines moving? If you have any other questions feel free to message me.

[tweek]

Milkshake, to spot a RLM I would read LT Profit's bog about it. If you can't find his blog you can go to my handicapping network and you can find him on my list. In a nutshell it is when more than 75% of the betting public is on a team and the line actually goes in the opposite direction. For example, this past Saturday, March 21st, there were 2 Reverse Line Movements on both the Lakers & Trailblazers game. The opening line was -6 for the Lakers and it actually moved down to -4 on some books. The opening line for the Trailblazers was -5 which also moved down 2 pts to -3. Both of these were pretty aggressive moves in the opposite direction of where the money was. Both teams covered ATS which added to the success of the RLM for the 2008-09 NBA season. Remember the most important factor is that more than 75% of the betting public must have their money on their side for it to work. This is one of the many questions I ask myself when capping my games for the day. What is the public betting on and how are the lines moving? If you have any other questions feel free to message me.

How can you quantify what percentage of the public is betting on which team?

[smoke a bowl]

It's the same as any other sport. Shop the best #'s available and beat the closing lines and you will win.

[LT Profits]

Milkshake, to spot a RLM I would read LT Profit's bog about it. If you can't find his blog you can go to my handicapping network and you can find him on my list. In a nutshell it is when more than 75% of the betting public is on a team and the line actually goes in the opposite direction. For example, this past Saturday, March 21st, there were 2 Reverse Line Movements on both the Lakers & Trailblazers game. The opening line was -6 for the Lakers and it actually moved down to -4 on some books. The opening line for the Trailblazers was -5 which also moved down 2 pts to -3. Both of these were pretty aggressive moves in the opposite direction of where the money was. Both teams covered ATS which added to the success of the RLM for the 2008-09 NBA season. Remember the most important factor is that more than 75% of the betting public must have their money on their side for it to work. This is one of the many questions I ask myself when capping my games for the day. What is the public betting on and how are the lines moving? If you have any other questions feel free to message me.

NO, The RLM plays went 0-2 on Saturday. Since the popular sides were the Lakers and Blazers and yet both of the lines went down, the RLM plays would have been the Bulls and Bucks.

[jmathes]

NO, The RLM plays went 0-2 on Saturday. Since the popular sides were the Lakers and Blazers and yet both of the lines went down, the RLM plays would have been the Bulls and Bucks.

Thanks for the clarification LT. I did not bet on those games but if I did I would have made money due to my ignorance-lol.

[BestPlay2day]

I don't start baseball until at least late April so I can start seeing some trends. On big favorites, I like to bet the -1 runline instead of the moneyline which others have mentioned. Try to bet more dogs as that's where the money is made. Don't just look at the starting pitchers, a tired or weak bullpen is a big factor in looking at a game. Also, stay away from runline bets on home team favorites.

[ICEMAN888]

You'd still profit if they win 95 games.

That means you'd be 67-95, and you gotta figure your average bet will be at least +150.

The Yankees always have a hyped up line. Usually -150 or more. However, they are going to have around a .590 to .610 winning percentage. So I usually wait until they win a game then fade them. If they are on a 4 game or more winning streak then its a no bet for me. I don't want to get caught up when they are playing hot but I will take advantage of the skewed line at most times of the season.