How do You Bet on Baseball?

[ConnieDotey]

I want to start this thread because I am looking for new ideas on good bankroll management for baseball. Since baseball has such a nasty moneyline I would like some of your ideas on how you bet your games. In the past I only make about 100 baseball bets a season under a few criteria: run line, -130 line or better, over/unders, & trend betting. My specialty is every other sport but baseball. Since May through August is a baseball only time of the year I would like to get more action. I am strictly a one pick a day person and do not get into chasing systems so don't include that on this thread. I have used a bankroll system similar to Heaven's Gate for my other sports during September through April. It is not such an aggressive approach to the HG one but yields about the same dollar return providing that I hit atleast 60%.

Please post your strategies or past successes on baseball betting here . I am trying to figure out the best way to get a bang for my buck. For many years I did flat betting before I came up with my system and realized I was losing thousands of dollars a year the old way.

Thanks alot!!!

There are some stratergies for doing betting o baseball.Remember one thing that don’t bet on a baseball game . When u r going to place your bet, almost all sports books will allow you to select an option to void the bet if there will be the change of starting pitcher.
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Baseball Tickets

[veto]

Betting -200 favorites is NOT the way to go.

I guess youre saying if a good pitcher is pitching for a team that is playing good, smart baseball the books will make em -200 favorites. That is not always the case and definitely not what i was saying to go with.

[LT Profits]

I guess youre saying if a good pitcher is pitching for a team that is playing good, smart baseball the books will make em -200 favorites. That is not always the case and definitely not what i was saying to go with.

Maybe not always, but if you have a good pitcher pitching for a good hitting team and facing a struggling team, you are USUALLY talking about a prohibitive favorite.

[waiverwire]

When I read a thread like this I feel like I'm being leveled. Do you guys seriously believe that you can beat a relatively efficient market like baseball betting with some of the garbage that's being posted here?

I'll start by saying that I'm not a sports bettor - I find it interesting, but have never placed a 'real' bet. Maybe that's why I'm more willing to share my thoughts than a lot of the pros here. But I'm a very, very good fantasy baseball player. VERY good. And I've read and thought a ton about sports betting, financial markets, etc.

Some of the theories people posted here have worked over a limited period of time - for example, fading the Yankees. There are two problems with using such a simplistic approach going forward:

1. By looking at past history on something like this, we're doing selective sampling, and may just be basing our 'system' on a random occurence from the past.

2. If there really IS something to the theory, don't you think that other people are going to catch on and eliminate the inefficiency in the market? Obvious patterns go away.

As far as I know, there are two ways to beat sports betting:

1. Line shopping. Find a book offering a bad line on an event and pounce before everyone else does.

2. Statistical analysis/handicapping - build a better statistical model than everybody else, and identify games with inaccurate lines.

For the second of these in particular, baseball in April is probably the BEST time to bet.

[fifawcs]

Baseball in April can be the worst time to bet as well. I know of many people who will not cap baseball that early. One reason is that certain teams play way better than they are capable of. The same thing goes for Interleague play. It can be one of the best times to bet, or the worst, depending on which side you are on.

[pico]

interleague is the worst time for me. easiest time is the beginning of the season.

[fifawcs]

The trick with interleague is to take the AL teams in a majority of contests. The worse AL teams like the Royals and Orioles seem to thrive in interleague play and present a lot of value.

[pico]

i only tend to bet al of if it is played at the AL stadium. for some reason last year, it doesn;t seem to matter. AL still kick ass with 8 hitters.

[fifawcs]

If you think about interleague play, the NL should destroy the AL. The NL has an advantage in both situations. Their pitchers are going to be better at hitting because of their experience and NL teams are stacked with lots of pinch hitters. In an AL stadium, a good NL team will be able to put any offensive player who lacks defense in the DH role while putting a better team in the field. The AL wins because the level of play is better overall. However, the more stacked NL teams seem to thrive in interleague play.

[Slanina]

Taking the moneyline against the yankees isn't that bad of a bet. If the average ML is +150 then the yankees could go 97-65 and you would break even. But there will be many games where the ML is greater than +150, so a few more losses could be incurred. Although, the small profit would make this a complete waste of time. And not worth the risk of them actually winning 100+ games.

On the flip side: They are in the strongest division in baseball. So several of the yankee losses will be from the Rays/Sox(mainly) and Angels. Where the ML will definitely not always be +150.

[Unitage]

Didnt know Angels are in the yanks division.
And Jays and Orioles dont exist.

[Slanina]

Didnt know Angels are in the yanks division.
And Jays and Orioles dont exist.

They are 3rd or 4th best team in the AL. I meant they will have losses from them and the ML won't be +150 always. Don't be dumb. And for the Jays/Orioles fall into the category that is stated in the first paragraph. I didn't realize I would have to break down a sports post in a sports forum for you.

[PapaGeorge]

check the pitching line up VS the other teams pitching line up.....then check there stats....forget batters and runners its all about pitching, this is coming from a grl i dated who played softball her whole life, scholarship and all..

[Shortstop]

Papa, did anyone wire you money to fund your book?

[TraderMike]

great response

seriously though what is the best way to bet on baseball?

LMAO!!

[SportsTerminator]

How do you bet on baseball?

NBA season is ending soon and the playoffs are a little tricky. So I'm either going to have to bet on baseball or WNBA. I'm big on basketball but I want to give baseball a shot. But I'm not sure what's the strategy of successful baseball picking. Can't it go either way with baseball, no gurantees. I mean is it about what team is having a good hitting day? And you can't tell that until after the game l0l. Is it what team has a good pitcher and bullpen or the better hitters? I sometimes watch baseball but that's only in the playoffs. I didn't start betting on the NBA until last month so I have to make some $. I'm big on NFL too but the season doesn't start until September. So does anyone have any tips on baseball betting? Why is the money line so low like hockey ?

[austintx05]

Good questions.

Baseball is the sport of the dog. Typically your best team wins 60% of their games, while the worst team will still win 40%+. You can very easily have a season hitting 47% or so and be up 50+ units. Baseball is a grind though. Look for tired bullpens to exploit, cause its those last 3 innings that typically determine wins or losses. Not always, but lots of the times this is the case.

Learning when certain pitchers are hot/cold. Wandy is great at home not on the road. Same for Ervin. Z, CC and Johan can start out slow, but pick up steam late in the season.
Don't try to be the hero and break the streak. Didn't the A's win something rediculous like 22 in a row years back? When these streaks happen, just ride em or stay away.

I'm sure there is more I'm leaving out, but that's a good start for now

[Unitage]

am i having deja vu?

[ingem64]

John Morrison system v2.0!!!

[Immortality]

am i having deja vu?

Yep same exact subject

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/161240-how-do-you-bet-baseball.html

[ingem64]

John Morrison system v2.0!!!