Mlb mojo system 5-game chase (48-1 ytd)

[HappyKane]

48-1 YTD. Up $820.60.

Updated ROI = 15.2%, annualized return = 102.8%

Future chases will include system recommended "mojo" plays and not just "fade the public" qualifiers.

Why should i limit myself to just betting on crappy teams and shitty pitchers when favorites are hitting at a 55.77% clip?

After taking on a big losing streak my martingale will look something like this for underdogs: $45, $75, $135, $235, $415.

Full double-down (or more) for favorites.

[HappyKane]

Keep this spreadsheeet bookmarked!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ai8y0VjQSNzcdFdjdTlUR1RhQlJDdTE4dTBaOXBMakE#gid=0

Here is what i am looking at for Friday, August 1:

SEA 20% Roenis Elias C-
BAL 80% Wei-Yin Chen B
I will take a shot on the Mariners as a "fade the public" play. Its Elias's birthday today and maybe he'll get a W. For whatever reason his numbers have been a bit better on the road than at home.

LAA 73% Matt Shoemaker A+
TB 27% Jeremy Hellickson B-
A+ rated pitchers went 3-0 yesterday. I trust Shoemaker to be as good as usual with this optimal rating. An A+ rating isn't a guaranteed win. It just means the pitcher will pitch better than his average and/or get very good run support.

Toronto/Houston Over 9
With the Astros bullpen in play any Over is possible.

PIT 83% Edinson Vólquez B-/C-
ARI 17% Vidal Nuño B+
Public all over the Pirates and why not? Pirates coming off a loss so this is what a call a "situational mojo" play.

[HappyKane]

Down the line, CHASE 50, 51, 52, 53; all 1st of 5's.

Mariners +142
$35 to win $49.70

Angels -115
$40 to win $34.78

Blue Jays/Astros Over 8.5 +100
$30 to win $30

Pirates -111
$45 to win $40.54

[HappyKane]

2-2 on Friday. 50-1 YTD. Up $830.92.

CHASE 51 & 53 were winners. CHASE 50 & 52 will go for 2nd try.

Here is what i am looking at for Saturday, Aug 2:

NYY 65% Shane Greene A+
BOS 35% Allen Webster C-
A+ pitchers on a 5-0 run. Good spot for the Yankees to set up a rubber game on Sunday.

Giants/Mets Over 7 -125
Like it!

TOR 88% R.A. Dickey B+
HOU 12% Brett Oberholtzer B+
Fade the public play. Oberholtzer has been pitching well. I'll be on Astros F5 innings.

ATL 75% Ervin Santana B
SD 25% Ian Kennedy B+
Oh look. The Padres just blew their wad again.

[HappyKane]

CHASE 50, 2nd of 5
Yankees +103
$62 to win $63.86

CHASE 52, 2nd of 5
Giants/Mets Over 7 -125
$75 to win $60

CHASE 54, 1st of 5
Astros F5
no line yet

CHASE 55, 1st of 5
Braves -119
$40 to win $33.61

[HappyKane]

Updated card for Aug 2:

CHASE 50, 2nd of 5
Yankees +103
$62 to win $63.86

CHASE 52, 2nd of 5
Giants/Mets Over 7 -125
$75 to win $60

CHASE 54, 1st of 5
Astros F5 +115
$40 to win $46

CHASE 55, 1st of 5
Braves -119
$40 to win $33.61

[HappyKane]

2-2 on Saturday. 52-1 YTD. Up $825.78.

CHASE 50, 2nd of 5 WIN!
CHASE 52, 2nd of 5 LOSE!
CHASE 54, 1st of 5 WIN!
CHASE 55, 1st of 5 LOSE!

Sunday's card:

CHASE 52, 3rd of 5
Reds -101
$125 to win $123.76

CHASE 55, 2nd of 5
Giants -117
$85 to win $72.65

CHASE 56, 1st of 5
Red Sox -110
$40 to win $36.36

[petertjm]

Good Morning Happykane, I hope you are feeling better, I started following about 10 days ago, I like your graphs, also that u post early, I will follow rest of yr and thx for all your work, ps do you do other sports.
Pete

[HappyKane]

yes. my mojo system work for other sports. I will be compiling NFL and NBA sheets soon.

[petertjm]

Great, i believe in karma and mojo, trea t people well it well come back to you, great day today thx for everything pete

[HappyKane]

2-1 on Sunday. 54-1 YTD on the chase. Up $982.19.

Monday's card:

CHASE 56, 2nd of 5
Yankees +120
$70 to win $84

CHASE 57, 1st of 5
Angels +112
$45 to win $50.40

[shaggydog88]

lol

[shaggydog88]

your loss column is waaaayyyyyyy off.

[fitguy67]

hey hap,

i've been following you closely since you started posting here at SBR...

i play everything to WIN a flat $100 unit...

you're 54-48, +$970.2...that's a 10% yield vs the 9,700 risked along the way over the 102 plays with a +105 avg price


if you play flat like this, the units you net can be MUCH bigger, because you don't have to keep near as much powder dry for the monster-sized 4th/5th bets...

before the inevitable 5 consecutive losses...chases make way more UNITS than boring old flat...but the units must be much smaller than they could safely be betting flat...so the units may be way higher but the $ really aren't...

then, after a single series loss the units atrophy to about the same as what they'd have been betting flat...as you can see in my figure of 9-ish full-strength units...about the same as yours (but your units are by-necessity substantially-minimized by the need to "hold back for later games")

not to mention...betting well-capped games like yours flat is MUCH easier on the blood pressure (that fifth game was just another game for me...none of them are heart-stopping "do or die" affairs when you bet sane/non-gigantic amounts)

______________

i'm not writing this to persuade you to go flat like me...just informing you how good your plays are...and for other followers out there (like pete who just hopped on)...to let them know there's a much less volatile way to profit from your great calls

___________

BTW, ignore the two "contributions" posted directly above mine...the only thing waaaayyyyy off are the "author"'s brain-cells, permanently stuck in "lol" mode

your play-calling and record-keeping are just fine...and the units/dollars speak for themselves...whether you take the bumpy "chase" road that you post or the much-smoother "flat-target" road i advocate

[HappyKane]

fitguy67 thx for the great information.

So if i flat bet 5% of my bankroll i should stand to gain more units as opposed to starting a chase with 1% of bankroll?

[fitguy67]

yes...AND be MUCH less wired up/tense/distracted when a "big game" is on...cuz there'll be no more "big games"...cuz all games'll be the same...your significant others will like you a lot more

look...we both made 9-ish units so far this season on the 100-ish posted plays...i did it risking just 90-ish units...a bit LESS than 1u on avg per game...cuz ur avg odds are about +105 and I bet "to win" (not risk) 1u per game...

how much did you have to risk to win your 9-ish units?...a TON more...almost entirely because of a few crazy "D" and especially "E" plays

take that huge stake and divide it up...if you switched, your flat unit can easily be several times your current starting unit and you'd have made the same number of units...but they'd be much bigger units

[keel44]

Your doing great, but how was he to know he would have profited flat? You still have a long way to go for this to be a proven long term winner. I say start flat at 2%....then raise slowly......if you get down. I see this as a 50% strategy

[fitguy67]

agree with keel...there's a reason 2-2.5% often quoted as a max bet for long-term survival and sanity...and that's still triple the 0.75% initial stake called for with this protocol...meaning same # units can be about triple the dollars without all the inevitable $- and mood-swings that game D/E's bring...

[HappyKane]

Thx for the info guys.

I will use fitguy67's W-L record as well as the chase record.

[HappyKane]

2-0 on Monday. 56-48 YTD. Average price +107. 56-1 on the chase. Up $1,116.59.

Updated ROI = 20.7%
Annualized return after 77 days of betting = 144%

Two-fer Tuesday:

CHASE 58, 1st of 5
Pirates -1.5 +150
$50 to win $75

Who will step up for McCutchen?

CHASE 59, 1st of 5
Padres +112
$50 to win $56

[mitch51]

agree with keel...there's a reason 2-2.5% often quoted as a max bet for long-term survival and sanity...and that's still triple the 0.75% initial stake called for with this protocol...meaning same # units can be about triple the dollars without all the inevitable $- and mood-swings that game D/E's bring...

You are so right here. Took me a long time to get to the point where I flat bet everything at 2.5%, but it has been easy sledding ever since. In baseball, no game is worth more than another.

[HappyKane]

0-2 on Tuesday. 56-50 YTD. 56-1 on the chase. Up $1,016.59.

Wednesday's card:

CHASE 58, 2nd of 5
Cubs -112
$88 to win $78.57

CHASE 59, 2nd of 5
Diamondbacks +120
$85 to win $102

CHASE 60, 1st of 5
Dodgers/Angels Under 9 -120
$45 to win $37.50

[fitguy67]

flat ("fixed target"...every play to win exactly one $100 unit) record

56-50, +1014.25

[fitguy67]

You are so right here. Took me a long time to get to the point where I flat bet everything at 2.5%, but it has been easy sledding ever since. In baseball, no game is worth more than another.

hey mitch,

i just checked to see that u'r "Mitch & Ali" from Calmeat's threadz...i'm lookin' forward to killing NHL with u guyz this year...

_______________

speaking of hockey...note to HappyKane...(time allowing of course) you should look into NHL as the ideal off-season offset to MLB...IMO way better than Basketball or Football (pro or college) as an MLB-alike for two big reasons...

1. ML-(not spread-) focused...just like baseball...(what's wrong with spreads in a nutshell?: teams play hard to win...not to win by/lose by certain amounts...Murphy's Law just loves the extra opportunity to steal from you when you're right)...both hockey and baseball use ML (win/lose) and 1.5hc (win/lose big)...a ton less frustrating than diddling around with varying cushions that you can just swear players and refs all know to the half-point when they go into their final 2 minutes of usually-garbage time

2. the two seasons (of MLB and NHL) cover the entire calendar perfectly...hockey reg-season getting fully on-board, laying down a nice layer of startup data for your systems while baseball playoffs winding down and vice-versa...only two team sports you'll ever really need...
________________

MLB spring & summer <==> NHL fall & winter
both simple "pick the winner" (ML) or "pick the big-winner" (+/-1.5 ) markets
in MLB pitchers are the key to winning and half of total scores/in NHL it's goaltenders that serve same function
(in baskets and football it's _____???who the fukk knows???)

___________

before anybody brings it up...soccer's also fukked as a sport to "embrace the grind" profitably with because of the draws...they'll put you in the poor-house/nut-house (probably both)...soccer's ok for spot betting only...

MLB/NHL only two team sports you'll ever need to SYSTEMATICALLY grind out $, mostly from undervalued ML-plays (and most of these on dogs)

[keel44]

You can bet ML in NBA and NFL. I say look into everything.

[fitguy67]

agreed...basketball, football, rugby, soccer (and individual sports like tennis, combatants, snooker, darts) all fertile ground for spot-betting...wouldn't turn my nose up at a good +ev bet (ML or otherwise) anywhere

but for day in/day out, grind'em out mostly-ML-bets...MLB is king...and NHL is the ideal stand-in when the king is away


(NFL too infrequent, and the ML-odds for both NFL & NBA are a lot like u see in individual sports like tennis/combatants/darts...great for finding spot-value on specific matches...but generally TOO far away from coin-flips to be suitable for system-play...payouts way too short on even-undervalued faves and the drawdowns'll kill you waiting for your dogs to hit..)...multi-competitor sports (racing of all sorts, golf, etc.) carry this problem to the extreme and call for a completely different approach to betting (including "dutching" a selected set of undervalued candidates)

my point is that NHL (especially played regulation-ML or fullgame -1 during the season...to avoid being F'd by the horseshit shootouts) gives the closest $-ride to MLB there is...and the calendars mesh perfectly...

there's a reason you don't see many sources churning out a hi-volume of ML-plays for NBA/NFL...if you wanna systematize'n'grind'em ur stuck with the goddam spreads/totals...baccarat beats the hell out of either of these options

[HappyKane]

1-2 on Wednesday. 57-52 YTD.

57-1 on the chase. Up $881.09.

CHASE 58 & 59 were losers and will go for 3rd try.

No action on Thursday. My lab report had bad numbers and i had to be hospitalized. My hemoglobin was low so i had to go in ER for blood transfusion and treatment. I am still in the hospital but hope to be discharged later today.

Onto business, Friday's card:

CHASE 58, 3rd of 5
Padres +101
$155 to win $156.55

CHASE 59, 3rd of 5
Cardinals +128
$150 to win $192

CHASE 61, 1st of 5
Blue Jays +117
$ 40 to win $46.80.

[Booker1979]

Hope you are better now HappyKane.

Awesome Job with the picks.

[fitguy67]

looks like 3-1 (the two FTP's and the Mojo hit...only the "over" missing) on the night...

pulled directly from the google-sheet...which was updated early today (good news!)

but didn't post at twitter or here...

____________

Happy...hope you're hangin' tough with the new supply of mud coursing thru your veins, buddy

[HappyKane]

Thanks for the well wishes folks.

0-3 last Friday. 57-55 YTD. Profits down to $536.09.

CHASE 58 & 59 will go for 4th try, CHASE 61, 2nd try.

Took a break over the weekend but it looks like i missed a 3-day winning streak. Monday's qualified plays went 3-0 and Saturday's and Sunday's mojo plays were winners.

Tuesday's 2-for:

CHASE 58, 4th of 5
Astros F5 -½ +100
$275 to win $275

CHASE 59, 4th of 5
Royals +135
$255 to win $344.25

[Kelloggs]

So no more picks

[IGotKidsToFeed]

He still updates his spreadsheet. It is linked in the second post.

[Kelloggs]

Just be clear, TB and CIN were the picks yesterday, right ?

[HappyKane]

No action on Thursday. Was really busy with nurses, nutritionist and nephrologist.

Friday's card:

CHASE 59, 5th of 5
Diamondbacks +126
$450 to win $567

CHASE 61, 2nd of 5
Mets -140
$85 to win $60.71

CHASE 62, 1st of 5
Angels -1½ -130
$40 to win $30.77

CHASE 63, 1st of 5
White Sox +140 (full game)
$40 to win $56

[HappyKane]

2 for Saturday:

CHASE 62, 2nd of 5
Tigers +105
$70 to win $73.50

CHASE 64, 1st of 5
Blue Jays -140
$50 to win $35.71