Ton of possible ML plays for me tonight, thoughts?

asdf21 · 07-11-14, 07:26 AM

Them fish... I'm on them

RollinDo · 07-11-14, 07:47 AM

Not sure about those sides, but liking a lot of totals tonight.
Those games above seem like coin flips...maybe you're onto something though Posey.

RollinDo · 07-11-14, 07:49 AM

I do like Mia, Hou, and StL though...not enough to bet on though.

posey · 07-11-14, 07:54 AM

Originally posted by RollinDo

Not sure about those sides, but liking a lot of totals tonight.
Those games above seem like coin flips...maybe you're onto something though Posey.

Yeah indicating those coinflips was my initial thought. And then going with the plus side. Too much bad luck with juicy plays lately.

RollinDo · 07-11-14, 08:48 AM

Lotsa possible Unders today bud.
Can you write which you like from a stats perspective and personal instict?

posey · 07-11-14, 09:09 AM

No problem. Give me a few minutes.

posey · 07-11-14, 09:13 AM

1st under:
ATL @ CHI
Wood: in his last 7 away starts, the Braves conceded 5 times 2 runs or less and the Braves scored a mere 2.9 runs/game in those 7 starts
Arrieta: 4 o, 12 u, 1 p since September 2013 (average score 4.1 to 2.3)

posey · 07-11-14, 09:18 AM

2nd under:
WSH @ PHI
Zimmermann: 3 o, 6 u, 1 p in last 10 away starts; 3 away unders in a row (0, 1, 2 runs conceded by the Nats); opponents scored a mere 2.3 runs/game in those 10 starts against the Nats
Burnett: 3 o, 6 u in home starts for the Phillies; out of last 6 home starts 5 unders; average score in PHI home games when Burnett starts 3.0 to 3.0

posey · 07-11-14, 09:24 AM

3rd under:
PIT @ CIN
Locke: doing very well lately (1.69 ERA, 16 IP in his last two starts) and career ERA of 3.03 against CIN
Latos: if you take out the 9-14 against TOR, the other 4 starts of Latos all went under this year (2-4, 4-1, 0-1, 4-2); last two starts 1.80 ERA in 15 IP; Votto and Phillips DL

posey · 07-11-14, 09:37 AM

4th under:
ARI @ SFG
Bolsinger: Bolsinger either solid (2 times 2 runs) or abysmal (2 times 8 runs, 1 time 10 runs conced by Dbacks) in his away starts; Dbacks offense not doing well lately, only 81 wRC+ over the last 7 days, along a SLG of .373; solid BP lately (3.24 ERA and 2.47 xFIP over the last 7 days)
Lincecum: Dbacks like him (especially Goldschmidt), but he was very solid in his last 4 starts (1.53 ERA) and Giants bats are a joke right now (.207 avg, .315 SLG, 66 wRC+ over the last 7 days; after taking Romo away from the closer spot, Giants BP much improved (1.93 ERA, 2.76 xFIP over the last 7 days)

posey · 07-11-14, 09:38 AM

Okay, that's what I like best regarding unders.

R.P. McMurphy · 07-11-14, 09:41 AM

Most those hard to argue with at first glance Posey. That under in Philly caught my eye making me want to look more into Phils tt UN. First game back from roadie and they were exploding for runs in Waukee now facing Zim has me thinking they will not be making much noise today. Gl

posey · 07-11-14, 09:45 AM

Yeah, I watched the game yesterday. PHI was doing simply nothing until the 8th. Then Garza was pulled and it went downhill for Milwaukee. Bad choice by the manager of the Brewcrew. It wasn't PHI doing so well, it was this reliever (Smith?) doing so bad. But I had a laugh. Was on PHI ML for a small amount of money lol.

R.P. McMurphy · 07-11-14, 09:51 AM

Oh believe me I know had the UN 8 in that shitfest

RollinDo · 07-11-14, 09:53 AM

Man. I love your first 3 Unders.
I locked in #2 and #3 even before you posted!

I'm contemplating #1...
Another good one is the late game pitting Sea-Oak.
I bought the hook to go Under 6.5 @ -115. I would think this goes up as day goes along. I see a 3-1 or 3-2 type game.

RollinDo · 07-11-14, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by R.P. McMurphy

Oh believe me I know had the UN 8 in that shitfest

That ranked #3 this year for me in worst beats.

RollinDo · 07-11-14, 09:56 AM

I even like your 4th one (AZ-SF), but have to be more selective, especially on Fridays when I've been burned lately.

posey · 07-11-14, 10:00 AM

Yeah, OAK @ SEA looks good, too. Two studs on the mound. Don't know why, but somehow I have the feeling that I don't trust it. Oakland is so good right now. But that's only a feeling and nothing else.

RollinDo · 07-11-14, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by posey

Yeah, OAK @ SEA looks good, too. Two studs on the mound. Don't know why, but somehow I have the feeling that I don't trust it. Oakland is so good right now. But that's only a feeling and nothing else.

Yeah, I don't like the 6.5 number...actually do better with 6 for some reason!!

But instead of taking King Felix and M's, though better play was Under.

ridims · 07-11-14, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by posey

Using current pinnaclesports odds as a base I got some possible value plays for tonight (I will only list the games where IMO the wrong team is favored). Off(ense)/SP/BP ratings are based on recent performance:

4) BOS @ HOU, HOU ML, +119
Bookie fav: BOS
My fav: HOU
Off: HOU ++
SP: HOU ++
BP: HOU +

as much as Lackey been struggling (last 3 starts have been terrible), I wouldnt say there is much of sp advantage here. Feldman is ok sure but not great. He will always give up runs and hits. Where as Lackey can shut you down and go the distance.

sox have good success against feldman as well and most have seen him many times. sure they arent swinging the bats as well but could put up runs in a hurry if they get out of this slump.

becareful here. all depends if Lackey gives a shit and the team decides they want to play imo because lately they been sleep walking and just playing like crap

posey · 07-11-14, 10:34 AM

Lots of overs in similar games since 2011 (OAK @ SEA):

12-15 (-0.74, 44.4%)	avg line: -105.0 / -106.5	on / against: -$385 / +$233	ROI: -12.2% / +7.3%
13-14 (-0.80, 48.1%)	avg line: 122.0 / -135.9	on / against: +$91 / -$183	ROI: +2.8% / -4.6%
16-9-2 (2.35, 64.0%)	avg total: 6.8	over / under: +$570 / -$830	ROI: +18.8% / -28.6%

(The query asks for the following:
- home team from the AL West
- division matchup in a month past May
- sum of home starter ERA + away starter ERA smaller than 7
- game total smaller than 7.5
- in a season past 2011)

posey · 07-11-14, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by ridims

as much as Lackey been struggling (last 3 starts have been terrible), I wouldnt say there is much of sp advantage here. Feldman is ok sure but not great. He will always give up runs and hits. Where as Lackey can shut you down and go the distance.

sox have good success against feldman as well and most have seen him many times. sure they arent swinging the bats as well but could put up runs in a hurry if they get out of this slump.

becareful here. all depends if Lackey gives a shit and the team decides they want to play imo because lately they been sleep walking and just playing like crap

Yeah thx for your thoughts. I play with mini stakes. Therefore the possible danger is not too big.

R.P. McMurphy · 07-11-14, 11:05 AM

One thing to keep in mind about Oak (I am a fan) is Seattle has really had their # past few years and always give the A's problems even with far less pitchers than King!

RollinDo · 07-11-14, 11:10 AM

I'm a little surprised that U 8.5 in Brewers game is just -115.
And that Cards ML is +130.
What am I missing here?
Both teams not hitting much, but Cards have had Gallardo ' s # in the past.

posey · 07-11-14, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by R.P. McMurphy

One thing to keep in mind about Oak (I am a fan) is Seattle has really had their # past few years and always give the A's problems even with far less pitchers than King!

Since 2013 it's 6-6 at SEA vs OAK.

6-6 (-0.58, 50.0%)	avg line: 102.9 / -112.9	on / against: +$85 / -$145	ROI: +6.5% / -10.0%
6-6 (-0.33, 50.0%)	avg line: 116.5 / -130.1	on / against: +$6 / -$69	ROI: +0.4% / -4.1%
8-4-0 (1.21, 66.7%)	avg total: 7.2	over / under: +$375 / -$485	ROI: +28.8% / -36.1%

Lots of overs.

@Rollin:
I think it's because of 2013. Bookies sometimes give previous season (too) much weight because the public follows results from the past (e.g. they still bet on BOS because of the WS win and STL because they were in the WS).

2013:
STL @ MIL: 9 o, 1 u (avg. score 6.6 to 4.4) and 8 W STL, 2 W MIL.
2014:
STL @ MIL: 0 o, 3 u (avg. score 2.0 to 3.7) and 1 W STL, 2 W MIL.

From this point of view one should take the under for sure.

RollinDo · 07-11-14, 11:33 AM

I know I shouldn't bet on so many Unders today, but so many appeal to me.
It's Friday though and I should learn from past 3 Fridays to tread lightly.
May still tack on a parlay at tail end of IF Win bet:

Thinking Cards - Brew FF (U 4) / LAA -1

posey · 07-11-14, 11:38 AM

It was only 'coincidence'.

July 4th: 8 o, 5 u, 1 p
June 27th: 4 o, 11 u, 1 p
June 20th: 8 o, 6 u, 1 p
June 13th: 7 o, 7 u, 1 p
June 6th: 6 o, 8 u, 1 p

Overs are indeed in a slightly plus this season, but only of a 0.9% ROI. This equals out to nothing.

RollinDo · 07-11-14, 11:58 AM

Thanks for checking into this!
Looking back didn't play much on June 27th.

RollinDo · 07-11-14, 12:01 PM

Think I'll play AtL-Chi (U 7.5) / Angels ML as Parlay

posey · 07-11-14, 12:04 PM

Parlaying the LAA ML with anything else looks quite good today. We have some queries at the SDQL thread which support taking the Angels very much.

L_Cheifa · 07-11-14, 12:27 PM

I really like the over in the Oak and Seattle the total seems low even for a pitcher like Felix he can still be hit and who knows Seattle might swing the bats today BOL

RollinDo · 07-11-14, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by L_Cheifa

I really like the over in the Oak and Seattle the total seems low even for a pitcher like Felix he can still be hit and who knows Seattle might swing the bats today BOL

I just don't see the total even reaching 5 here man.
Some people were on the Over in LA last night with same total and stayed well Under. Both pens probably shut the door if the starters don't finish.