Over/unders usually have less juice but all-in-all the players don't give a sh#t whether the game ends with 6,7,8,9 or 10 runs scored. The only incentive they have is to win a ballgame. Assuming that they don't care is it smart (in the long-run) to focus more on over/ unders or just better stick to moneylines and run lines?
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You're probably talking about the batters, but what if the pitcher don't care?Comment -
I mean in general the entire teams, managers and franchises assuming they are NOT involved in some rigged shady business where they get paid to push the game over a specific amount of runs. They don't play for total runs scored or anything when they win 10-9 (in most cases over) they take the win. When they win 2-1 (most cases under) they take the win. What I mean is that the players are not focused how (totals) they win but more on the aspect that they win (moneyline/ run line).
I think taking this aspect into consideration makes sense when deciding to get involved with totals.Comment -
I get it that the pitchers want to throw zeros but when they have a certain amount of run support (let's say 5-6 runsthey don't really care when they allow this unmeaningfull runs to maybe push the game over. OK one run allowed would mean that they can't shutout the other team but do all the team really play to shutout their opponents?? I doubt it, they are more focued on winning games in general and less on the HOW.Comment -
I'm lost in your theory because players are competitive and want to win every time out; so, it's hard to imagine players throwing in the towel. But if this is a proven strategy, then show us some examples.Comment -
Yeah thats what I am saying they to win and dont want count their runs scored and allowed they play to win. They dont play for the score to go over or under, hence there is no incentive in the long run. What they simplay care about is winning and high scoring or low scoring games are just a by-product of that. Hope it makes more intuitive sense now.Comment -
I would say every batter tries to get a hit and the pitchers try to get the out.Comment -
Plus, pitchers don't want a high ERA next to their nameComment -
I think what you're missing is this. The only team that scores is the offense and the offense is always at bat. If you're premise is that teams that are up 6-1 in the 8th just want to go home then I believe you're wrong. They will try to score more runs. Runs will always try to be scored regardless of the situation. There is no situation in which you can predict an under based on predicting a team will take a lead by 4 runs late in the game and then stop scoring.
Added: think of it this way. When the game is over they are happy as long as they won by any margin. But during the game they know no lead is safe so they will always plays for insurance runs. Just consider the walk off grand slam. Always play for more insurance runs.Comment -
Weirdest "theory" I have ever heard! Of course the hitters care and trying to get runs. More runs scored, rbi's, and hr's is what gets them paid! When playing totals it's just like sides you have to factor in alot of things. Familiarity or history with opposing pitcher, weather, head ump, ballpark etc etc.Comment -
I have looked into my recent bets and found out that I was doing much better on betting F5 than the whole game. If you want to start betting baseball maybe you want to try a look into the F5 since then you don't have to consider the bullpen.
BTW there are many clear patterns for certain teams and pitchers out there. Only two give you a few:
- Padres have 14 overs, 29 unders, 3 push at home this season (average score 3.1 to 3.1 = 6.2 runs on average on an avg total of 6.7 and the bookies haven't adjusted the total much throughout the season)
- Darvish's home starts have gone over 6 times, under 20 times, 1 push since 2013 (average score 3.9 to 2.4 = 6.3 runs per game on a avg total of 8.1 and the bookies have not adjusted the total)
- Red Sox have 14 overs, 28 unders, 0 push at home this season (average score 3.9 to 4.1 = 8.0 runs per game on an avg total of 8.6 and the bookies have not adjusted the total by any means)
- Orioles are have 14 overs, 27 unders, 2 push at home this season (average score 3.7 to 4.0 = 7.7 runs per game on an avg total of 8.7 and the bookies have not adjusted the total by any means)
- Henderson Alvarez home starts have gone over 5 times, under 12 times, 1 push since 2013 (avg score 3.1 to 2.9 = 6.0 runs per game on an avg total of 7.4 and the bookies have adjusted nothing, he got a 7.5 total in all of his last 9 home starts)
- Wei Yin Chen's home starts have gone over 5 times, under 12 times, 1 push since 2013 (avg score 4.6 to 3.3 = 7.9 runs per game on an avg total of 8.6 and the bookies have dropped the line only slightly in 2014 compared to 2013)
And so on.Comment -
It's not a theory. Go and ask any player who plays baseball and he will answer you that he doesn't care about how the scoring is going and so on when they eventually win. He will take a low scoring or a high scoring game, what he cares about is winning. Incentive wise I don't see a point to focus on totals.Comment -
Of course that's sports 101 in all sports like the late great A.D. once said "Just Win Baby". Greatest sports phrase ever coined. Sure players don't care if they win by a low score or high one far as winning is concerned most of the time I'm sure. But end of day ask Miggy for example if he would "rather" win 3-2 and go 0-4 personally or win 9-4 and go 3-4 with 2 jacks and 5 rbi in a no sweat gm? The answer is a no brainer!Comment -
Just remember sports is a business and these guys livelihood where their personal stats get them paid more than if the team wins. You can bet anything Dilfer for ex loves his SB ring but I'm sure he would much rather being wearing one as a guy who threw 30 td's and 4,000 yards instead of just being along for the ride. Would have left a better legacy and got him paid top dollar range.Comment -
Baseball is all about stats. A player raises his team and market value if he has good stats. Every play, every action will be recorded. This is very different from sports like tennis, where a player could care less if he wins a set 6-2 or 6-4.Comment -
Exactly right!! Personal stats and pride mean as much if not more even than winning. The o.p. I'm guessing has never played a sport in his life or competed much in anything. He does not seem to have a clue about the mindset of an athlete and how much personal pride they have.Comment -
Do you honestly think (??) that they focus on their stats when they play 162 games almost everyday over 5-6 months. Of course they know when they are on a 16-game hitting streak or have hit 4 homers in 5 games and so on.
Regarding personal pride: of course they have to have personal pride otherwise they wouldn't compete at this high level (MLB). They compete against each other and yet still they take winning before of stats any day.
You see it on pitchers when they throw nearly zeros and lose 1-0 or 2-0, still they are upset they didn't get the Win.
Winning will always come first, that's how I see it. Proof me wrong that stats and stuff like that will come before winning and competer against other teams to win against them.Comment -
LOL how should one prove that? What a BS.
Look at two scenarios:
- a young player in his contract year on a shitty team
- an old player with a life long contract and 10 mio $ per year on a shitty team
And now tell me that both are equally interested in winning.Comment -
In general: people play team sports at such a high level to eventually compete to win in the long run, I doubt that you will disagree here.Comment
