MLB - Wednesday, 7/2/14

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Wednesday

Brewers +107 (5 Dimes)
Reds / Padres UNDER 6 -113 (5 Dimes)
Rockies +200 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Pirates UNDER 7.5 -105 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 247-279-7, -2.94

[PorkChop]

When do we give up on the road Rockies?

+220 Monday
+195 Yesterday
+200 again today.

[RavensFan2k3]

When do we give up on the road Rockies?

+220 Monday
+195 Yesterday
+200 again today.

Never, theres too much value to pass up on

[Down_Goes Bookie]

Fister's average fastball velocity on his last outing, at the Cubs, was at about 87 mph by the far the lowest this year -- the lowest single-game FA velocity, in fact, in the last three years.

Is something wrong with Mister Fister? The Cubs got to him for 7 H and 3 ER in 6 IP, not a bad start but not great. He does has his trademark control, though, issuing very few walks over the course of this season.

Fister's high FIP and strand rate also tempt me into a Rockies pick. Just not sold on the guy. The Rocks, alas, manage to win just 36% of their road games. Matzek is still an unknown commodity... undistingished minor league digits and the Natinals hit LHP at .283 albeit a bit light in the power dept. But Matzek twirled a great game his last outing, at Milwaukee.

Natinals at -230 is silly. For me a Rockies pick would be mostly a Fister fade based on a few indicators and a fingers crossed that Matzek can reprise his last performance.

[RavensFan2k3]

Fister's average fastball velocity on his last outing, at the Cubs, was at about 87 mph by the far the lowest this year -- the lowest single-game FA velocity, in fact, in the last three years.

Is something wrong with Mister Fister? The Cubs got to him for 7 H and 3 ER in 6 IP, not a bad start but not great. He does has his trademark control, though, issuing very few walks over the course of this season.

Fister's high FIP and strand rate also tempt me into a Rockies pick. Just not sold on the guy. The Rocks, alas, manage to win just 36% of their road games. Matzek is still an unknown commodity... undistingished minor league digits and the Natinals hit LHP at .283 albeit a bit light in the power dept. But Matzek twirled a great game his last outing, at Milwaukee.

Natinals at -230 is silly. For me a Rockies pick would be mostly a Fister fade based on a few indicators and a fingers crossed that Matzek can reprise his last performance.

thats how I feel, and Im not into betting based on crossing my fingers lol

[randynsales]

Right now it seems smart money is coming in on the rockies as of now im with the rocks ill now more before game ill keep watching the line

[LT Profits]

When do we give up on the road Rockies?

+220 Monday
+195 Yesterday
+200 again today.

When the books stop overvaluing their road opponents.

[Nitronett]

Today is the only day the really have a chance

[RavensFan2k3]

When the books stop overvaluing their road opponents.

I completely agree with you, they are overvaluing their road oppoenents, but they've also been playing pretty shitty. This is the only game that I would have considered playing Colorado. Also why do you like Brew Crew here? I initially liked Toronto and am not understanding all the Brew love

[LT Profits]

thats how I feel, and Im not into betting based on crossing my fingers lol

The Rockies will be my second SBR writeup game today, if I remember I will post it here. Bottom line, Fister's strikeout rate is way down this season, and yes reduced velocity could be part of the reason as Down Goes Bo alluded to. Matzek is a big left-handed power pitcher that would be projected as an ace-type if he did not walk so many guys. He has an overpowering fastball and if he can harness his control, he will be tough. He hits 96 MPH with his fastball and has a plus curve.

[LT Profits]

I completely agree with you, they are overvaluing their road oppoenents, but they've also been playing pretty shitty. This is the only game that I would have considered playing Colorado. Also why do you like Brew Crew here? I initially liked Toronto and am not understanding all the Brew love

Milwaukee has better starting pitcher and better bullpen.

[Nitronett]

I do like brew crew today though but prob will just fade the game

[PorkChop]

Peralta has been Brewers second best SP; (Lohse)

[mgoncalves10]

Peralta has been tagged with a .316 BA against left handed batters, and the Jays have 4 in the lineup, with 3 switch hitters..
Happ has been tagged with a .286 against right handed batters, and the Brewers have 8 in their lineup with 1 switch hitter..

Over 9.5 a possibility..?

[No coincidences]

When the books stop overvaluing their road opponents.

That's a completely arbitrary, random, subjective comment.

"Overvalued" according to who? You? You may believe that the Rockies at +200 is a "value" bet compared to the number they should be listed at according to your system and methods, but in the end, that is your opinion and nothing else. In actuality, every time you have bet Colorado recently (with the exception of Sunday), the home team has been the one with value -- because the Rockies haven't even been close to winning. Colorado has dropped 13 of its last 15 games, and failed to cover the +1.5 in 11 of those instances.

[RavensFan2k3]

That's a completely arbitrary, random, subjective comment.

"Overvalued" according to who? You? You may believe that the Rockies at +200 is a "value" bet compared to the number they should be listed at according to your system and methods, but in the end, that is your opinion and nothing else. In actuality, every time you have bet Colorado recently (with the exception of Sunday), the home team has been the one with value -- because the Rockies haven't even been close to winning. Colorado has dropped 13 of its last 15 games, and failed to cover the +1.5 in 11 of those instances.

[farmhouse1]

The Rockies suuuuuuuck

[LT Profits]

http://www.sbrforum.com/mlb-baseball/free-picks/mlb-pick-underdog-value-play-wednesday-a-40500/

[No coincidences]

http://www.sbrforum.com/mlb-baseball...esday-a-40500/

Honest question: how many times have you bet them over the last 15 games? Because even if you hit this one today -- which I think you probably will -- you're still in the red backing them recently. I can all but guarantee that.

[yanksallday7]

That's a completely arbitrary, random, subjective comment.

"Overvalued" according to who? You? You may believe that the Rockies at +200 is a "value" bet compared to the number they should be listed at according to your system and methods, but in the end, that is your opinion and nothing else. In actuality, every time you have bet Colorado recently (with the exception of Sunday), the home team has been the one with value -- because the Rockies haven't even been close to winning. Colorado has dropped 13 of its last 15 games, and failed to cover the +1.5 in 11 of those instances.

This!

[No coincidences]

This!

I have made this same mistake many a time backing ugly dogs. I even had Colorado yesterday. The bet was a joke. There wasn't "value" on the number -- it was a stupid, sucker bet. Period.

[LT Profits]

Honest question: how many times have you bet them over the last 15 games? Because even if you hit this one today -- which I think you probably will -- you're still in the red backing them recently. I can all but guarantee that.

But what's your point? We are talking about a 15-game sample. I am more concerned with overall record and I have done a much better job since bottoming out at -30. I already incorporate home vs. away and I don't want to tinker with that too much. One alternative would be to disregard Colorado games altogether, and I would probably have a winning record if I did that. But I don't want to start making exceptions like that.

[No coincidences]

But what's your point? We are talking about a 15-game sample. I am more concerned with overall record and I have done a much better job since bottoming out at -30. I already incorporate home vs. away and I don't want to tinker with that too much. One alternative would be to disregard Colorado games altogether, and I would probably have a winning record if I did that. But I don't want to start making exceptions like that.

Why not? Your biggest problem at this point is being married to your methods. I've said that before. Just because something has worked for you in the past doesn't guarantee anything for the future. You keep saying "well I did this" or "this has worked in the past" or "I had X number of winning seasons before." Your lack of flexibility is costing you IMHO. You are a slave to your system, which in the end is just your own personal interpretation of numbers anyway. You seem to believe that staying loyal to "objective" data takes human error and element out of the equation, but the human element and observation is both needed and inevitable in gambling.

[RavensFan2k3]

Why not? Your biggest problem at this point is being married to your methods. I've said that before. Just because something has worked for you in the past doesn't guarantee anything for the future. You keep saying "well I did this" or "this has worked in the past" or "I had X number of winning seasons before." Your lack of flexibility is costing you IMHO. You are a slave to your system, which in the end is just your own personal interpretation of numbers anyway. You seem to believe that staying loyal to "objective" data takes human error and element out of the equation, but the human element and observation is both needed and inevitable in gambling.

[JM17]

dude LT, last night i parlayed your under in the SF game and Cle ML and it hit!! winner winner chicken mothafuckin dinner!!

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

5 MLB Plays Wednesday

Brewers +107 (5 Dimes)
Reds / Padres UNDER 6 -113 (5 Dimes)
Rockies +200 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Pirates UNDER 7.5 -105 (5 Dimes)
Rangers +125 (5 Dimes)

[lamichaeljames]

get it pimp!

[JM17]

LT Profits, Fadin' the public since 10-27-06

[farmhouse1]

Rangers also suuuuuuck.

[GT21Megatron]

Fister's average fastball velocity on his last outing, at the Cubs, was at about 87 mph by the far the lowest this year -- the lowest single-game FA velocity, in fact, in the last three years.

Is something wrong with Mister Fister? The Cubs got to him for 7 H and 3 ER in 6 IP, not a bad start but not great. He does has his trademark control, though, issuing very few walks over the course of this season.

Fister's high FIP and strand rate also tempt me into a Rockies pick. Just not sold on the guy. The Rocks, alas, manage to win just 36% of their road games. Matzek is still an unknown commodity... undistingished minor league digits and the Natinals hit LHP at .283 albeit a bit light in the power dept. But Matzek twirled a great game his last outing, at Milwaukee.

Natinals at -230 is silly. For me a Rockies pick would be mostly a Fister fade based on a few indicators and a fingers crossed that Matzek can reprise his last performance.

Im on over 8....That's rediculous

[JM17]

The rockies and rangers picks are a little whacky.

[RavensFan2k3]

So Matzek strikes out Bryce Harper and they take him out. Relief pitcher prompty gives up a triple and now a score, wow.

[No coincidences]

So Matzek strikes out Bryce Harper and they take him out. Relief pitcher prompty gives up a triple and now a score, wow.

I don't know why you'd get that horrific bullpen involved unless you absolutely had to.

Just like the Cubs, another 30-plus cent line movement winner with Washington. It's uncanny.

[leetreaper]

I guess people don't learn that Rockies can't win on the road vs decent teams for YEARS...

[RavensFan2k3]

I don't know why you'd get that horrific bullpen involved unless you absolutely had to.

Just like the Cubs, another 30-plus cent line movement winner with Washington. It's uncanny.

It's almost like they were trying to give up a run.