Was the weirdest line I've seen in baseball so far this season.
Someone smarter than me will have to explain that one.
Pauulzcappin
SBR Posting Legend
04-23-10
20295
#2
Sharps lose too. Sometimes we overthink some stuff when we should have just grabbed Verlander at a low price.
I just don't like betting a regular season game when there is too much line movement.
Comment
No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#3
Originally posted by Pauulzcappin
Sharps lose too. Sometimes we overthink some stuff when we should have just grabbed Verlander at a low price.
I just don't like betting a regular season game when there is too much line movement.
I find it hard to believe sharp bettors were backing this Balty pitcher vs. Verlander at that price (or anything in that neighborhood).
Comment
Pauulzcappin
SBR Posting Legend
04-23-10
20295
#4
Originally posted by No coincidences
I find it hard to believe sharp bettors were backing this Balty pitcher vs. Verlander at that price (or anything in that neighborhood).
I remember a Portland @ Boston game a few years ago where the line went from Boston -5.5 to -3.5
Obviously Boston won by 20+, maybe books were trying to mess with bettors, don't know.
Comment
Cappinpicks
SBR Posting Legend
03-11-10
14986
#5
its all road teams again
Comment
Big Bear
SBR Aristocracy
11-01-11
43253
#6
Benny Big Nuts jumped on it.
Comment
lore22
SBR Rookie
01-13-14
34
#7
I've been stung a couple times by this last week...I think there were even 2 this past Sunday....from
some old notes"when Vegas has any idea that the favorite will cover...they always shift the spread(ml)
to pk or close...just to get the juice on the dog...watch the spread.Then hit the original favorite hard..."
It worked this time...and something to be aware of ,for me anyway.
Comment
EVfollower
SBR Wise Guy
05-05-14
515
#8
Could have been a vegas trick on bettors to reduce the amount being bet on by the large bettors - the sharps, on Detroit. By dropping Baltimore line by a ton or even 20 cents, it caused more "value" bettors to think Baltimore is the play based on line movement, further increasing the drop in price for Detroit. Notice how every "value" bettor either said "I'm on baltimore" or "Detroit looks like the obvious play but the line movement is too fishy to make it a play". Thats my guess. I believe Detroit should have been a -135 favorite, not -150 or -115. I got lucky when I saw Detroit at -114, I hit it for a good amount.
Comment
No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#9
Originally posted by EVfollower
Could have been a vegas trick on bettors to reduce the amount being bet on by the large bettors - the sharps, on Detroit. By dropping Baltimore line by a ton or even 20 cents, it caused more "value" bettors to think Baltimore is the play based on line movement, further increasing the drop in price for Detroit. Notice how every "value" bettor either said "I'm on baltimore" or "Detroit looks like the obvious play but the line movement is too fishy to make it a play". Thats my guess. I believe Detroit should have been a -135 favorite, not -150 or -115. I got lucky when I saw Detroit at -114, I hit it for a good amount.
Could be.
Comment
goduke
SBR Posting Legend
02-17-10
11580
#10
30 cent moves you always fade in baseball. Look back at games where lines start under -200 and see the record on this, its pretty solid. As for why the line was that way, the scouting report on the o's pitcher was suppose to be solid and they were trying to avoid being swept for the first time this season. Other then that I dont think there were any other reasons for the movement