Tigers -113 on Wednesday

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  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #1
    Tigers -113 on Wednesday
    Was the weirdest line I've seen in baseball so far this season.

    Someone smarter than me will have to explain that one.
  • Pauulzcappin
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 04-23-10
    • 20295

    #2
    Sharps lose too. Sometimes we overthink some stuff when we should have just grabbed Verlander at a low price.

    I just don't like betting a regular season game when there is too much line movement.
    Comment
    • No coincidences
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 01-18-10
      • 76300

      #3
      Originally posted by Pauulzcappin
      Sharps lose too. Sometimes we overthink some stuff when we should have just grabbed Verlander at a low price.

      I just don't like betting a regular season game when there is too much line movement.
      I find it hard to believe sharp bettors were backing this Balty pitcher vs. Verlander at that price (or anything in that neighborhood).
      Comment
      • Pauulzcappin
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 04-23-10
        • 20295

        #4
        Originally posted by No coincidences
        I find it hard to believe sharp bettors were backing this Balty pitcher vs. Verlander at that price (or anything in that neighborhood).
        I remember a Portland @ Boston game a few years ago where the line went from Boston -5.5 to -3.5

        Obviously Boston won by 20+, maybe books were trying to mess with bettors, don't know.
        Comment
        • Cappinpicks
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 03-11-10
          • 14986

          #5
          its all road teams again
          Comment
          • Big Bear
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 11-01-11
            • 43253

            #6
            Benny Big Nuts jumped on it.
            Comment
            • lore22
              SBR Rookie
              • 01-13-14
              • 34

              #7
              I've been stung a couple times by this last week...I think there were even 2 this past Sunday....from
              some old notes"when Vegas has any idea that the favorite will cover...they always shift the spread(ml)
              to pk or close...just to get the juice on the dog...watch the spread.Then hit the original favorite hard..."
              It worked this time...and something to be aware of ,for me anyway.
              Comment
              • EVfollower
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 05-05-14
                • 515

                #8
                Could have been a vegas trick on bettors to reduce the amount being bet on by the large bettors - the sharps, on Detroit. By dropping Baltimore line by a ton or even 20 cents, it caused more "value" bettors to think Baltimore is the play based on line movement, further increasing the drop in price for Detroit. Notice how every "value" bettor either said "I'm on baltimore" or "Detroit looks like the obvious play but the line movement is too fishy to make it a play". Thats my guess. I believe Detroit should have been a -135 favorite, not -150 or -115. I got lucky when I saw Detroit at -114, I hit it for a good amount.
                Comment
                • No coincidences
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 01-18-10
                  • 76300

                  #9
                  Originally posted by EVfollower
                  Could have been a vegas trick on bettors to reduce the amount being bet on by the large bettors - the sharps, on Detroit. By dropping Baltimore line by a ton or even 20 cents, it caused more "value" bettors to think Baltimore is the play based on line movement, further increasing the drop in price for Detroit. Notice how every "value" bettor either said "I'm on baltimore" or "Detroit looks like the obvious play but the line movement is too fishy to make it a play". Thats my guess. I believe Detroit should have been a -135 favorite, not -150 or -115. I got lucky when I saw Detroit at -114, I hit it for a good amount.
                  Could be.
                  Comment
                  • goduke
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-17-10
                    • 11580

                    #10
                    30 cent moves you always fade in baseball. Look back at games where lines start under -200 and see the record on this, its pretty solid. As for why the line was that way, the scouting report on the o's pitcher was suppose to be solid and they were trying to avoid being swept for the first time this season. Other then that I dont think there were any other reasons for the movement
                    Comment
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