IF you are PLUS $ everyday, there is no way you can be down...

AntGualdieri1 · 05-12-14, 09:45 AM

nice post
looking forward to tailing you

Bullywully · 05-12-14, 12:03 PM

So basically what you're saying is that betting on a (huge) favorite is not worth it?

remeedella · 05-12-14, 12:15 PM

why are you judging others. A lot of people talk shit about 'locks' , winners tonight, etc and then they boast about their wins and argue about their losses. Don't take them seriously, it's best to ignore. It's easier to ignore.

Now, you toO! Are trying to boast and look better than others.

upscope · 05-12-14, 12:38 PM

That would make sense if (over time) -170 plays hit at a 50% rate. They don't though they actually hit at a far better rate than 50%
It would also make sense if (over time) +145 plays hit @ a 50% rate. They don't though they actually hit at a far worse rate than 50%

Your logic is not only flawed.....it is severely flawed. I do however agree that big chalk is not the way to go.

Bullywully · 05-12-14, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by upscope

That would make sense if (over time) -170 plays hit at a 50% rate. They don't though they actually hit at a far better rate than 50%
It would also make sense if (over time) +145 plays hit @ a 50% rate. They don't though they actually hit at a far worse rate than 50%

Your logic is not only flawed.....it is severely flawed. I do however agree that big chalk is not the way to go.

Yes unless you're very confident about the match up and you can take the RL.

upscope · 05-12-14, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by Bullywully

Yes unless you're very confident about the match up and you can take the RL.

You can have all the confidence in the world. Over time +145's are not going to hit @ a 50% clip & -170's are going to hit much more often than 50%

PublicEnemy · 05-12-14, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by upscope

That would make sense if (over time) -170 plays hit at a 50% rate. They don't though they actually hit at a far better rate than 50%
It would also make sense if (over time) +145 plays hit @ a 50% rate. They don't though they actually hit at a far worse rate than 50%

Your logic is not only flawed.....it is severely flawed. I do however agree that big chalk is not the way to go.

That made absolutely no sense... If you are going to make an argument please support your case with facts and actual statistics. No where are you even close to accurate when saying +145 dogs are less then 50% and -170 favorites are at a hit rate of over 50%. Cuz if you take the time and go through all my post just for this season alone. I'm hitting better then 50% and I'm usually only playing PLUS $ / Dogs. Its all calculated risk, when to play them and when to fade them. But obviously you believe that favorites in BASEBALL hit at over 50%.

PublicEnemy · 05-12-14, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by upscope

You can have all the confidence in the world. Over time +145's are not going to hit @ a 50% clip & -170's are going to hit much more often than 50%

One of the DUMBEST things I've ever read ANYWHERE on sports forums. Please do not take this comment as rude. This is a fact!

PublicEnemy · 05-12-14, 02:04 PM

I do not want to go back and fourth with this argument. Obviously you have your opinion and I have mine. Lets end it with to each their own. Best of luck with your plays and lets focus on making money

End it.

Ro0k · 05-12-14, 02:47 PM

I personally try and look for value. If there is a big favorite and the juice is too much, I look at the run line. If it's at +odds, I generally play that as there is less of a financial risk, especially if the opposing SP and bullpen aren't very good.

I look at stats and go from there. I come from a daily fantasy MLB background so I crunch stats and roll with the numbers.

Just my 2 cents, still learning though and always appreciate the discussion.

PublicEnemy · 05-12-14, 03:01 PM

I dabble a little in DFS I did really well for the nba regular season. Not so well for NFL tho. I play at f anduel mostly but have accountsto all the major DFS sites.

Ro0k · 05-12-14, 03:03 PM

I play almost daily at Fanduel depending on how much time I have. Tried the others, wasn't much of a fan.

PublicEnemy · 05-12-14, 03:09 PM

Ya I agree...I love fanduel. What level leagues do you play in? I like the single entry leagues just cuz all the other multi entry leagues I feel like those so called "professionals" have the edge cuz they can have so many entries n cover all their bases.

Ro0k · 05-12-14, 03:42 PM

$5 50/50, $1 20 player and usually some $2 3 player. I usually throw a lineup into the $1 tournaments just incase my most confident lineup goes off.

I try and mix it up a bit.

PublicEnemy · 05-12-14, 03:49 PM

Ahh the daily grinder. Well I use to try grinding daily but I went on a run n just started doing the bigger tournaments $5/$10/$25 and placed top 20 for a solid 2weeks. I think its way better payout. I would get so frustrated when my 50/50 lineups would do way better then my tourney ones. So I just started entering the bigger tournaments with 50/50 style lineups. Realized I cashed most the time. The daily grind was just not worth it for me. But good luck with whatever strategy u choose

Ro0k · 05-12-14, 04:01 PM

Ha, yeah I know what you mean by sometimes it's not worth it.

I just hate redepositing $ into that account. I've been lucky so far and haven't had to deposit yet this year. Just waiting for a bit of a bigger bankroll before I enter the bigger pots.

PublicEnemy · 05-12-14, 04:36 PM

All that Fanduel talk...haha I had to go enter a contest. I'm in the 45k Monday MLB Strikout... Looking to get 5th or better!!! Wish me luck

Ro0k · 05-12-14, 04:47 PM

Ha, good luck