I had Royals but if I had seen this earlier, would have backed off. When I bet vs Orioles this year, they pitch gems. Bet against them 3 times this year and only 1 run scored in each game for other team.
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Comment -
Friday 05/16/2014 – Square Play of the Day!
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies
Alfredo Simon (R) (4-2) 2.89 ERA @ Kyle Kendrick (R) (0-3) 3.98 ERAThis Friday night we have Kyle Kendrick and the Philadelphia Phillies hosting Alfredo Simon and the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are coming off of a double header in which they split the day, but lost the three game series against the visiting Padres. The Phillies had the day off yesterday after dropping three straight games including being swept in a two game series at home against the Angels.
Kendrick is currently posting a 3.98 ERA with an ugly 0-3 record, Simon flashes a 2.89 ERA with a 4-2 record. The first thing we take a look at is what we consider Simon’s true ERA (his FIP) and how often balls that are put in play go for hits. Simon has an FIP of 5.15, a -2.26 differential, a major run difference of over two runs. Not to mention only 21.2% (extremely low) of balls put into play off of Simon have been hits, this will not remain that low.
Kendrick has a true ERA (FIP) of 4.95 which is a -0.97 differential but still his true numbers seem to be better than that of his opposition. 28.6% of balls put in play off of Kendrick are hits which is a little low but closer to the average it should be. Due to these true numbers, I would have had the Phillies favored, especially since the Reds are coming off of a double header and then had to travel to Philly, while the Phillies were at home with a refreshing day off.
Both teams are struggling to hit against right handed pitching. Both of these teams have an on base percentage under .300 against righties in each of their last five games. A notable difference I do see is in the bullpen. Over their last five games the Philly bullpen has a 2.37 ERA and a 24% on base percentage. The Reds pen has an ERA of 8.44 and an on base percentage of 40.4% over their last five games.
Going back to the starting pitching Simon also has a ground-ball fly-ball ratio of 0.88 so he has been more of a fly-ball pitcher. Kendrick has a 1.07 ground-ball to fly-ball ratio making him more of the ground-ball pitcher. Although Citizens Bank Park in Philly has an ESPN park factor of 0.794 for runs, in Home-runs the park is 10th in the league with a 1.129.
In a high home-run ballpark I would rather have a ground-ball pitcher, than a fly-ball pitcher. Not to mention, out of 132 at-bats, the Reds are hitting only .265 against Kendrick. I would also rather have a rested home team than a traveling team who just played three games in two nights, especially when both teams are struggling to produce consistent offense. Finally, the bullpen can be huge in a game where home-runs are more common and offenses are lacking, and the Reds bullpen is really struggling. Given the circumstances, I see value getting the Phillies a dog, at home in this situation.
Today’s Square Play of the Day: Phillies +101Comment -
BOLComment -
Keep it up. And thank you.Comment -
Sorry about that
Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.
Previous Record updated, 5-0 (+5.2 Units)
1st Game, 5/16/2014 - Phillies - 1 to win 1.01 - LOSS
New Updated Record 5-1, Units +4.2 (all games are for one unit).Comment -
Let's get em todayComment -
Saturday 05/17/2014 – Square Play of the Day!
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals
Aaron Harang (R) (4-3) 2.98 ERA @ Shelby Miller (R) (5-2) 3.22 ERA
Today’s Saturday edition of the Square Play of the day, the Atlanta Braves visiting the St. Louis Cardinals in a game two, with a 2:15PM start. Today we try to bounce back from our 3-0 loss in yesterday’s Reds, Phillies game. The Braves send out Aaron Harang, to combat the Cardinal’s righty Shelby Miller.
Shelby Miller comes in with a 3.22 ERA and a 5-2 record. His team is 5-3 when he starts and over his last three games his team is 3-0. Shelby Miller has a true ERA of 5.88 with an incredibly dangerous -2.66 run differential. When we add in his balls in play average of only 25.4%, it reveals he may be somewhat fraudulent with his record this year. Even with the luck he has with BaBIP (batting average ball in play), his ERA is still only 3.22.
Aaron Harang comes in with a 2.98 ERA and 4-3 record. His team is also 5-3 in his starts and over his last three games, his team is only 1-2. Harang amazingly enough, in his last road start vs. Miami gave up nine earned runs, but his FIP is only 2.53 creating a +0.45 run differential. Another eye catching stat is that even with this incredible FIP, we hold our breathe to see how lucky he has been; however we see that his balls in play average is actually 30.9% which is right where it should be.
These two faced off in Atlanta earlier this month with Shelby and his Cardinals taking the win 4-3. The Braves were going into that game riding a six game losing streak, and the Cardinals made it seven before Atlanta snapped it by beating St. Louis in game two of their three game series. Not to mention it was the Braves seventh straight game without a day off, and it was only the Cardinal’s fourth.
Aaron Harang has pitched well against the Cardinals; out of 138 at-bats the Cards are only hitting .261 against him. The Braves don’t do too well themselves against Shelby, with a smaller sample size (54 at-bats), holds the Braves to a .278 average. The scary part for the Cardinals is Freddie Freeman is 9 for 4, Evan Gattis is 2 for 6, and even Andrelton Simmons is 7 for 3.
The Cardinals have definitely been hitting a lot better than the Braves. The Cardinal’s pitching however has struggled particularly their bullpen who has an ERA of 6.27 over their last five games. In their last meeting Shelby only went five innings and this season he hasn’t gone more than six innings pitched in a game.
It’s very hard to beat a pitcher twice in this league especially when that pitcher has true numbers better than yours. This game I look at for the situation, and I see value in the Braves as a dog. This is a game two on a Saturday, Braves are 5-1 on Saturdays. The Braves are 10-3 in game two and the Cardinals are 6-7.
Today’s Square Play of the Day: Atlanta Braves +100Comment -
BOLComment -
Two bad losses
Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.
Previous Record updated, 5-1 (+4.2 Units)
1st Game, 5/17/2014 - Braves - 1 to win 1 - LOSS
New Updated Record 5-2, Units +3.2 (all games are for one unit).Comment -
Sunday 05/18/2014 – Square Play of the Day!
Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Indians
Jesse Chavez (R) (3-1) 2.44 ERA @ Justin Masterson(R) (2-2) 4.31 ERA
In today’s Sunday Square Play of the Day, we try to get over this two game set back and get back on track. We are doing it with a matchup between Jesse Chavez and his Oakland Athletics, on the road against Justin Masterson and his Cleveland Indians in game two as Cleveland tries to avoid the three game sweep.
Jesse Chavez has terrific numbers with a 2.44 ERA and a 3-1 record, while Materson’s 4.31 ERA and 2-2 record rates him mediocre. Chavez has a -0.68 run differential in his FIP, and a 25.5% balls in play average. Masterson has a +0.64 run differential in his FIP and only a 31.3% balls in play average.
Over the last five games Oakland is hitting .312 against righties, while Cleveland is hitting .293. Last five games the Oakland bullpen has posted a 4.15 ERA while Cleveland’s is 3.72. These two teams at first look, seem like a complete mismatch but in this situation, as you can see, they matchup fairly evenly.
The A’s out of 151 at-bats, are only hitting .225 against Masterson. The Indians have a much smaller sample size of Chavez with only 36 at-bats, however they do hold a .306 average. I believe the Indians will have their extra motivation to not get swept on their home field, especially after being humiliated in their game yesterday.
The Square Play of the Day, Indians +105Comment -
Monday 05/19/2014 – Square Play of the Day!
Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves
Wily Peralta (R) (4-2) 2.05 ERA @ Mike Minor (L) (1-2) 4.24 ERA
In this Monday night Square Play of the day, the losing has to stop. We are on a three game losing streak; fortunately we are still up over two units. Tonight we look at the Milwaukee Brewers taking on the Atlanta Braves. The Brewers send out the 25 year old righty, Wily Peralta, to face off with the Brave’s 26 year old lefty, Mike Minor; in game one of their four game series in Atlanta
Peralta thus far has an ERA of 2.05 with a 4-2 record. The Brewers are 5-3 in games he has started, but despite only giving up only three combined runs in his last three starts; the Brewers managed to end up 1-2 over his last three. Minor comes into today’s game with a 4.24 ERA and only a 1-2 record, as this will only be Minor’s 4th start so far in 2014.
When look inside the numbers, Peralta has an FIP of 3.70 making him -1.65 runs worse than his FIP, and his batting average balls in play has been a very low, .269; leaving a lot of room for error. Minor, has an FIP of 4.19 making a differential of only +0.05, almost right on. His batting average balls in play however, is a very high .360 leaving plenty of room for improvement.
Over the last five games, the Brewers are only hitting .165 against lefties. They are averaging just under two runs per nine innings, and an OBP percentage of only .224 (versus lefties). The Braves over their last five games have averaged .221 batting average, earned just under three runs per nine innings and have an OBP of .283 all versus righties.
Besides the direction each pitcher seems to be trending, the Braves themselves have been offensively anemic, that is until last night’s come from behind win with a late game rally to top the Cardinals 6-5. This will be the Braves first game back home after a six game road trip. The Brewers come limping into today’s game having dropped two out of three to the Cubs in their first three games of a ten game road trip.
When we look at the bullpen, the Brewers on the road have an ERA of 3.56, and a 1.295 WHIP, both numbers higher than their season totals so seem to be better at home than on the road. The Braves bullpen at home have a 2.50 ERA and a 1.196 WHIP both numbers lower than their season totals making them better at home.
I see value in this situation as I do believe the Braves hitting will pick up especially after a dramatic win in yesterday’s win, and their return home after a long road trip. The Brewers seem to be struggling so far although it is early in this road trip, again they lost two out of three to the cubs who didn’t play great themselves.
Today's Square Play of the Day: Atlanta Braves -125Comment -
Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.
1st Game, 5/18/2014 - Phillies - 1 to win 1.01 LOSS
2nd Game, 5/19/2014 - Braves - 1.25 to win 1 - WIN
New Updated Record 6-3, Units +3.2 (all games are for one unit).Comment -
Tuesday 05/20/2014 – Square Play of the Day!
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals
Johnny Cueto (R) (4-2) 1.25 ERA @ Doug Fister (R) (0-1) 4.76 ERA
Today’s Square Play the Day, what seems to be a mismatch with Johnny Cueto taking on Doug Fister in game two of their three game series. Last night the Nationals made a dramatic late game rally to come back and put the game into extra innings, however after a few miraculous defensive plays by the Reds, the Reds took the game in the 15th inning.
Johnny Cueto has been virtually lights out. He holds a 4-2 record with a 1.25 ERA, and over his last three games his team is 3-0. Cueto’s FIP is 2.98, a -1.73 run differential, even with the differential his FIP is pretty good. The only issue is he has not only had great defense behind him but a lot of luck as well; his batting average balls in play average is .160, extremely low even for Cueto.
Although Fister is only making his third start this year, this is his home debut. We don’t know which Fister to expect in today’s game but what we do know is Cincinnati is hitting .162 over their last five games against right handed pitching, and .199 over its last ten. The Reds have only been averaging 1.89 runs per nine innings versus righties while the Nationals are averaging 3.35.
If the Nationals can get Cueto out of the game, they face a struggling Red bullpen. The Reds pen have an ERA of 6.75 over their last five games. The Nationals bullpen should, Fister struggle, 0.78 over their last five. The Reds were very lucky to win last night, and they seem to be reeling with a starving offense. The Nationals feel robbed, and an excited National crowd should get Fister pumped and ready to roll for his home debut.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, Nationals -105Comment -
Nice read man.
I have Reds +1.5 in a parlay, so I hope Johnny Cash Cueto can go for 7+...and Nats win by 1!Comment -
Nats -1.5 +211 it isComment -
Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.
1st Game, 5/20/2014 - Nationals - 1.05 to win 1.00 - WIN
New Updated Record 7-3, Units +4.2 (all games are for one unit).Comment -
Wednesday 05/21/2014 – Square Play of the Day!
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
Matt Cain (R) (1-3) 3.92 ERA @ Jhoulys Chacin (R) (0-2) 4.76 ERA
Today’s Square Play of the Day, game two of the Giants visiting the Rockies. After Giants pulled ahead in the top of the 9th, the Rockies responded in the bottom of the 9th, taking game one 5-4. Today the Giants send out the 29 year old, right handed Matt Cain. The Rockies will oppose with 26 year old righty, Jhoulys Chacin.
For Matt Cain, a 3.92 ERA and a 1-3 record, his team is 2-5 in his starts. Matt Cain earned a no decision in his April 23rd start against the Rockies, giving up seven earned, his team bailed him out by winning the game 12-10. In his last start he managed to get his first win of the season after going 7.2 innings and giving up four earned runs against the Marlins in San Francisco. His FIP is currently 4.75, a -0.83 run differential from his ERA (almost a full run worse). Even with the negative differential, his BaBIP (batting average balls in play) is only .268, leaving plenty of room for error.
Jhoulys Chacin comes into tonight’s game with a 4.76 ERA and a record of 0-2, as he makes his fourth start tonight. Although Chacin’s numbers seem bad, he has only given up four earned, three earned and two earned in his three starts. His team is 0-3 in his starts this year, but as previously mentioned it has not necessarily been his fault. His FIP (although three games is a small sample size) is 4.43 making a +0.33 differential, and his BaBIP is right where is should be at .305.
Over the last five games, the Giants are hitting .280 against righties, they have had an OBP of .326 and are averaging 4.45 runs per nine innings. The Rockies over their last five are hitting .294, with an OBP of .368, and a 5.19 runs per nine inning average all against righties. Chacin has pitched 175 at-bats to the Giant players who are hitting .251 against him. Buster Posey has hit him well going 9 for 19 and Pablo Sandoval is 8 for 27. Matt Cain has pitched 220 at-bats against Colorado players who are hitting only .232 against him. The problem is that Charlie Blackmon is 6-12 and Troy Tulowitzki is 21-63 (.394) against him. Although each pitcher has their issues with players on the opposing teams, the combination of Blackmon and Tulowitzki hitting well together; is a problem for the Giants.
In game one the Rockies’ bullpen blew a hold in the top of the 9th allowing the Giants to score the go ahead run. In the bottom of the inning the Giant’s closer Romo, blew a save and allowed the Rockies to win 5-4. The Giants bullpen over their last five games have a 4.15 ERA, while the Rockies’ pen maintains a 3.24 ERA over their last five. The Rockies and Giants are both playing good ball, this should be a great game, but in the Rockies’ notorious home run ballpark; I’ll take the home team with 63 home runs (tied for 1st in majors).
The Square Play of the Day, Rockies -125Comment -
bolComment -
Tough loss, odd game.
Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.
1st Game, 5/21/2014 - Rockies - 1.25 to win 1.00 - LOSS
New Updated Record 7-4, Units +2.95 (all games are for one unit).Comment -
post thursday's square playOriginally posted by Ck013Comment -
Thursday 05/22/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Mark Buehrle (L) (7-1) 2.11 ERA vs. Jon Lester (L) (4-5) 2.67 ERA
Today we try to bounce back after a very strange game from start to finish, and we do it with a truly “square” play. The Toronto Blue Jays have stunned the Boston Red Sox in Boston by taking the first two out of three games. Now in an attempt for the sweep, the Jays will send out Mark Buehrle, who is off to an outstanding start, to face off with Boston’s Jon Lester.
Lefty Mark Buehrle has a 7-1 record with a 2.11 ERA, and is undefeated in the month of May. His opponent, Boston Lefty Jon Lester, who holds a 4-5 record, with a 2.67 ERA. Buehrle would appear to have a slight advantage in the starting pitching except; Mark’s FIP is 3.13, a -1.02 run differential. Lester’s FIP is actually 2.11, a +0.56 run differential which switches the slight edge to Boston. Mark’s BaBIP is .294 right around where it should be, and Lester’s is .322 leaving room for improvement.
Although Toronto has been putting up big time runs against Boston these last two games, they are averaging .195 out of 302 at-bats against Lester. Boston, who have been putting up runs as well, are hitting .315 out of 337 at-bats against Buehrle. Over the last five games the Sox are hitting .289 against lefties (much better than their .194 average against righties). Toronto is only hitting .237 against lefties over their last five.
Should the Red Sox get into the bullpen, the Jays pen ERA is 7.31 over its last five games. Meanwhile if Boston’s pen gets involved, their pen has a 1.86 ERA over their last five. Based off of the power ratings we have Boston at -136, and that’s without adding another .25 cents for avoiding the sweep. Although this game may seem expensive for a struggling Boston team, we think for the given situation this is a discount.
Square Play of the Day, Red Sox -130Comment -
This sounds good for tomorrow man. BoSox gotta break out sometime. Glad I've only played then once all year. They just aren't the same.
If you back any Red Sox starter it would be Johnny Lester.
Thanks for the write-ups!Comment -
Where do you get your splits for relievers for the past 5 days? I am new to researching baseball stats, and gambling in general, and have really only been using ESPN stats as my primary source. I can get a lot of splits there; however, I cannot get the multiple splits like breaking down specific categories by the last 7 days.
Thanks.Comment -
Another tough loss, will bounce back.
Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.
1st Game, 5/22/2014 - Red Sox - 1.30 to win 1.00 - LOSS
New Updated Record 7-5, Units +1.65 (all games are for one unit).Comment -
Friday 05/23/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Shelby Miller (R) (6-2) 2.79 ERA vs. Homer Bailey (R) (3-3) 5.44 ERA
After two bad losses, the Square Play of the Day plans to bounce back into form. Today’s contest, a great rivalry, the St. Louis Cardinals visit the Cincinnati Reds in game one of a three game series. We have two righties going at it tonight; 23 year old Shelby Miller boasting a 6-2 record and a flashy 2.79 ERA, takes on Homer Bailey who’s managing a 3-3 record with a 5.44 ERA. This line opened -120 at some books, with the Cardinals favored in most books. The line this afternoon on game-day now has the Red’s favored, but why?
The Cardinals just swept the Arizona Diamondbacks in three games, and did a great job on their nine game homestand. Although they did score runs, their pitching is what really helped deliver their wins. Now we look at Shelby Miller who has an FIP/ERA differential of -2.54 runs and a BaBIP average of .259, which helps mask his flashy 2.79 ERA. It’s safe to say Miller has gotten his fair share of help. When we look at Bailey, we see he has been on the opposite end of the spectrum with a +0.78 (almost a full run better) run differential and a horrid .353 BaBIP average to spike his ERA.
The Cardinals come into this game with high spirits after their successful homestand, the Reds had the day off to prepare solely for this game. The Reds know that if they want to compete with the Cards this season they have to win their games at home, the Cards are 12-14 on the road (opposed to 14-7 at home). This game will be more important to the Reds, knowing they have Wainwright waiting for them in game three. If they want to have a chance at winning this series it starts today against a 23 year old going into only his second full season with a lot of hype and a high stock.
Homer Bailey is only 2-6 in his last eight against the Cardinals. He is coming off of his worst performance of the season in a 12-1 loss to the Phillies. Right now his stock is very low, but he remember he is a veteran at 28 years old and has been in the league since 2007. Bailey would love nothing better than to turn around his season starting with a big win for his team in a game one win at home. Getting Cincinnati as a home dog would have been tremendous value but based off preparation and motivation, but I still believe the Reds up to -110 still holds value. Today we roll the dice with the buy-low, sell-high mentality.
Today’s Square Play of the Day – The Cincinnati Reds - 110Comment -
Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.
1st Game, 5/23/2014 - Reds - 1.10 to win 1.00 - WIN
New Updated Record 8-5, Units +2.65 (all games are for one unit).Comment -
Saturday 05/24/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets
Josh Collmenter (R) (2-2) 4.02 ERA vs. Zack Wheeler (R) (1-4) 4.53 ERA
In Today’s Saturday edition of the Square Play of the Day we try to build on last night’s win with the Reds. We try do it in an under the radar game with two struggling teams and two struggling pitchers. Josh Collmenter and the Arizona Diamondbacks visit Zach Wheeler and the New York Mets, in what will be a game one after last night’s game was postponed to due to poor weather conditions.
Josh Collmenter comes into today’s game with a 2-2 record and a 4.02 ERA. Zack Wheeler comes in with a 1-4 record and a 4.53 ERA. Collmenter’s FIP is 4.86 making a run differential of -0.84, almost a full run. Wheeler’s FIP is actually 3.82 putting him at a +0.71 run differential. To put these pitchers further apart, Collmenter’s BaBIP is .252, Wheeler’s BaBIP is .340. Essentially it seems as though Collmenter has been fairly lucky and still bad, and while Wheeler looks worse, he actually has had no help which would explain his numbers.
Both teams are struggling, the D-Backs are hitting .246 against righties their last five, the Mets .240. Where I do believe the Mets have an advantage that plays to each pitcher’s weakness; the Mets are averaging 4.6 strikeouts (hitting) per game while the D-Backs average 7 (both over their last five games). It is a lot harder to get lucky without putting the ball in play, the Mets do a better job of putting the ball in play giving them an advantage to Wheeler’s .340 BaBIP.
Zack Wheeler was supposed to be right hand man after Harvey in correlation to the Mets. They hoped he would pick up the slack in Harvey’s absence after having a successful rookie season, but the balls literally haven’t fallen his way. How can you not see value in Zack Wheeler at -114? Especially when you consider the D-Backs have been one of the few teams the Mets have had recent success against. I see the line shading in favor of the D-Backs but that only gives us more value here.
The Square Play of the Day, the Mets - 114Comment -
Theres a few teams every year that people (including myself), just shouldn't touch and the Mets are one of them.
Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.
1st Game, 5/24/2014 - Mets - 1.14 to win 1.00 - LOSS
New Updated Record 8-6, Units +1.51 (all games are for one unit).Comment -
Sunday 05/25/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
Jason Hammel (R) (5-2) 2.91 ERA vs. Ian Kennedy (R) (2-6) 3.79 ERA
Yesterday’s Square Play of the Day was as ugly a game as I had seen, and a tough loss. Today we look at an interesting game and prepare for a higher price. The Chicago Cubs are in town visiting the San Diego Padres in game four of a four game series, Chicago leading the series 2-1. Today in San Diego, we have two righties, Jason Hammel taking on Ian Kennedy.
Jason Hammel comes into this game with a 5-2 record and a 2.91 ERA. Kennedy, a 2-6 record and a 3.79 ERA. Both pitchers got off to tremendous starts in April, but have really came down to earth in May; Hammel had a 2.08 ERA in April, Kennedy had a 3.16. In May however, Hammel has posted an ERA of 4.13 and Kennedy 4.74. Hammel strolls in with an FIP of 3.21 only a -0.30 run differential which doesn’t seem too bad, however his BaBIP is .223 making him very dangerous to take right now as we know that number will rise. Kennedy’s FIP is sitting at 2.74 giving him a +1.05 run differential, and his BaBIP is .327 which is not too high but still leaves room for improvement. Before his last start Hammel lost three in a row to start May before picking up a big win against the Yankees. Over 5.2 innings he gave up only four hits and one earned run in a 6-1 home victory, making Hamel’s stock right now, very high. Kennedy meanwhile, is winless in May making his stock extremely low.
The Cubs are 8-15 on the road and they have already won two of this four game series. The Padres are 13-15 at home which is a lot better than their 9-13 road record. The Cubs are batting .228 their last five against righties, the Padres not much better at .232. Where I do see an advantage is in the bullpen as the Cubs bullpen have an ERA of 3, while the Padres have an ERA of 1.69 both over their last five. This may take into account when we remember in Hammel’s last start he had a minor scare with a line driving coming back off his hand, we do not know his true condition.
This line opened up at Padres -130 at a lot of books, it is sitting anywhere from -140 to -145 and I still see value. Although I would have loved the 130, I still believe this is a great matchup for the Padres today. I will not only being taking the -140, I will also for the first time be making this a two unit game to take advantage of the mismatch. Why is a 5-2 record, 2.91 ERA a dog to a 2-6, 3.79 ERA? There is always a reason.
The Square Play of the Day, Padres – 140 (2 Units)Comment -
First two unit play, successful.
Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.
1st Game, 5/25/2014 - Padres - 2.80 to win 2.00 - WIN
New Updated Record 9-6, Units +3.51 (all games are for one unit, unless specified).Comment -
Monday 05/26/2014 - The Square Play of the Day!
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
Jhoulys Chacin (R) (0-3) 4.76 ERA vs. Kyle Kendrick (R) (0-5) 4.53 ERA
Yesterday’s Square Play of the Day, was the first two unit play this season and we cashed in, today we look to build on that win. Today’s Square Play of the Day is an ugly one on paper. In this Memorial Day edition, we will look at the stats but we throw them out the window, it’s all about the situation. Today Jhoulys Chacin takes the mound for the Colorado Rockies against Kyle Kendrick and the Philadelphia Phillies.
Yes, the Phillies were just no hit and the Rockies were just shut out. Both of these teams come in a little embarrassed and ready for a new game to wipe yesterday’s memories away. The Chacin comes into today’s game with a 0-3 record and a 4.76 ERA. His FIP stands at 5.12 leaving a -0.36 run differential, and his BaBIP is a little low at .274, not great numbers. Kyle Kendrick hosts today with a 0-5 record and a 4.53 ERA. Kendrick’s FIP is currently 4.57, a -0.04 run differential almost right on. His BaBIP is .278, both of these pitchers are having rough starts.
Over the last five games the Rockies are hitting .207 against righties while the Phils are right behind them with .210. The Rockies have only averaged 1.19 runs per nine innings, the Phillies are averaging 2.97 runs per nine innings, both against righties and both over the last five games. Both teams are struggling offensively coming into this one, but the Rockies have the tougher stretch as they continue their road trip after losing 2 out of 3 in Atlanta to the Braves. The Phillies actually played the Dodgers tough (with the exception of last night), and although the Dodgers were on a road trip they actually have a better road record.
As mentioned before, today we pretty much throw the numbers out. Here we have two teams struggling to produce offense, both coming off of shut outs. This game will come down to who was more embarrassed, the Rockies getting shut-out on the road in Atlanta or the Phillies getting no-hit becoming 34 year-old Josh Beckett’s first victim (at home). Last night the Phillies were home so they had all the time in the world after the game to watch highlights, and hear from family and friends about getting no-hit. The Rockies meanwhile, were on the road looking ahead to playing the team who got no-hit. I think the Phillies are the more embarrassed team and will play tonight with some extra motivation.
Today’s Square Play of the Day, the Phillies -115Comment -
Quick recap (following picks are posted above), games are 1Unit each.
1st Game, 5/26/2014 - Phillies - 1.15 to win 1.00 - WIN
New Updated Record 10-6, Units +4.51 (all games are for one unit unless specified).Comment -
Nice comebackComment -
Trying to catch your pick each day.Comment -
one of the best baseball threads in the forum hands downComment
