Let's beat the book

[pokerwhiz90]

nice thread!

[Aesthetical]

Hey, love your thread helped me pick up a few good winners.. may I make a suggestion that might help (at-least did for me, managed to dodge the nationals and kc game) is I took a number of power rankings I could find and then averaged the team's between all of them to make my own list to use with your system, it seemed to work but could have just been luck. Cheers, and good luck!

[easymoneybases]

This thread is interesting Jimmy, but from what I can see its the 15% bets that are killing your bank, why don't you bet flat stakes for the first 2 months till things settle down and you've got better team stats. I think on your current record you would have made more profit just betting 5% on each bet. Good Luck Man.

[Jimmy the Creep]

Thanks guys. There is room for improvement. And if you see something please speak up. This system is just something that came to mind at the tail end of last season when I was looking at how many times in a year a team gets swept. As you know, it happens but not all that much. I'm just going to pull a number out of my ass right now. If you look at all the games Boston or really any other team played in a year and look at how many times in the season they were swept. You will see that on average they were only swept 1 to 3% of all games played. How many times did Boston get swept last year ? Lets say 4 times. I don't really know. But lets say that was 2% of all the games they played. That means you have a 98% chance that they won't get swept. Right ? So really any time they play a team that is not nearly as good as them and they lose the first game. You have a pretty good chance of wining one of the next two games.

From there, it was just a case of drinking more beer and thinking about it a little more. At first I only played with the top 5 teams. After a few weeks I had not lost one bet. But I wanted more action. After a few more beers I started thinking that the bottom 5 might produce the same sort of results. And sure enough, they did. As far as bank management goes. Seems like there are many good ways and bad ways to manage your BR. I haven't had to reload in years. So I feel good about the way I do it but by all means if you have some way of doing it and it's better than the way I do it. I'm all ears. Please let me, and anyone else here know about it. After all we just want to beat the book.

And now for today's news. Looks like some of our games were postponed due to weather. The bet on the Rays was scratched. So that play is a no go. Out of the games we had to watch it looks like the only one that came through for us was the Dodger/Giants game. The Dodgers lost. So we will bet that they will win one of their next two games.

Faux bank $1122.62

We have an (A) bet on the Dodgers. And the system says to bet the RL because they are dogs, but they are just a very slight dog. The ML has much better value. I'm going to stick with the system. I have too or it won't be a system.

Dodgers (A) bet 1 unit 5% of bank. $56.00 to win $26.27.

Faux bank $1066.62

Looks like we will have a few games to watch tomorrow. You could say the Cubs/Yanks game is one to watch today, but it's a double header. So I'm not sure we should bet that one.

[Jimmy the Creep]

The Dodgers won the bet. I'm so glad I resisted the urge to bet the ML. The system is a system for a reason.

System bets are now, official 8-3 unofficial 3-0.

Faux bank $1066.62+$82.27=$1148.89

We have no plays today, but tomorrow it looks like we have 6 games to watch. See ya then.

[sunshine11]

Sorry for your loss first of all. I know it's tough. Keep up the good work! Very interesting. You have another
follower. Good luck this season and let's get rich

[Jimmy the Creep]

Sorry for your loss first of all. I know it's tough. Keep up the good work! Very interesting. You have another
follower. Good luck this season and let's get rich

Thank you. It's been a hard week. My father spent 3.5 years in the Navy, joined at 17 in 1961. After he was discharged he became a State Trooper. Retired after 23 years. At the same time he was in the National Guard for 20 + years. He had many, many friends.

Today he was put to rest with full military honors. He was escorted to the Saratoga National Cemetery by the NY State police, the Blue Nights Chapter VIII and the Patriot Guard. He was a hell of a man and it was one hell of a service. I will miss him.

P.S. My dad was also the best man at my wedding.

[Jimmy the Creep]

And now, back to base ball. Official bets are 8-3 unofficial are 3-0. Faux bank is $1148.89.

Today we will be watching a few teams. These are the first in a 3 game series and depending on how these games go will determine how fat our bank roll will get over the next two days.

These teams must win in order for us to have bet.
Cubs
Mets
Miami
Houston
Diamondbacks
These teams must lose in order for us to make a bet.
Tigers
Oak A's
Dodgers

BOL

[sunshine11]

Thanks for sharing. Wrote the games down and hopefully there will be a few plays tomorrow. Than watch them on Saturday and win! See ya

[keel44]

A realistic unit size being 4% of a bankroll, one unit of $1000 is $40. So you are up 3.722 units. I am just putting into perspective what you are doing and I like it. It seems safe enough.

[Down_Goes Bookie]

Sorry for your loss Jimmy. I just lost my mother last week. Not a huge surprise but still difficult to take.

Interesting system you have here. I'lll be following along. Thanks and good luck.

[Jimmy the Creep]

Sorry for your loss Jimmy. I just lost my mother last week. Not a huge surprise but still difficult to take.

Interesting system you have here. I'lll be following along. Thanks and good luck.

Thanks very much. My father was a very healthy 70 year old. He even drove his motorcycle to the hospital. He went because he had hiccups that just wouldn't stop. He thought they might give him something to help. They sure did. As soon as they gave him a shot of something he went down hill. Looks like they killed him.

[Jimmy the Creep]

A realistic unit size being 4% of a bankroll, one unit of $1000 is $40. So you are up 3.722 units. I am just putting into perspective what you are doing and I like it. It seems safe enough.

Because BB is usually just a two game chase I feel 5% =1 unit is ok. For NBA and NFL I stick to 3% because that's a 3 game chase.

[Jimmy the Creep]

Looks like a good day to fatten our BR. After watching yesterday we have come up with 3 nice bets today.

Faux bank $1148.89 official bets 8-3 unofficial bets 3-0.

I'm going to bet on all 3 plays today. I will bet 5% or 1 unit on each bet. 3 bets at one time are the max. Anymore than that and things get crazy.

Tigers ML-150 $57.00 to win$38.00
Mariners ML-115 $57.00 to win $49.57
Dodgers ML-185 $57,00 to win $30.81

Faux bank $977.89

#11 explains the system. BOL

[sunshine11]

I like all three. But did you know Angels have beaten them 10 straight. Yikes. Go tigers. I live in WA. go
mariners and Dodgers will win. Three team parlay looks good also.

[Jimmy the Creep]

Hope you didn't parlay that Sunshine. Here's some food for thought. Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. Let's pig out.

Official bets 10-3 unofficial bets 3-0. 1 bet pending.

Faux bank is now $1160.70

Today we would like to cash in on the Seattle game. But the guy on the mound, Maurer, doesn't give me that warm fuzzy feeling. And it's still April the month where I suspect most of our loses will be. Hmmm, do we bet it or do we walk away ? .........Thinking. Ok lets go for it.

If Seattle gets swept, no big deal. In the end we will still beat the book. That being said I'm only going to bet 1.5 X's my (A) bet instead of the usual 3X's. So here's the play for today.

Seattle (B) bet -105 $85.50 to win $81.43

Tomorrow we have some more games to watch. GL.

[Jimmy the Creep]

As you can see in #51 I had that funny feeling in my gut. I should have walked on this one. Oh well, it's interesting putting a new idea to the test. We are taking a few lumps here in April. Can't wait to see how this month compares to next. Looks like we will have 5 or 6 games to look at tomorrow. I'll post them after the (Power ranking list) is updated.

System bets are now 10-4 unofficial bets are 3-0

Faux bank$1075.20

Hmmm, were not making much head way. That will change soon.

[sunshine11]

No I did not parlay. I know the pros say its a suckers bet. Lol
i had mariners also. I hate my team. I went 5-3 and the losses were all by 1 run each.

[Jimmy the Creep]

I'm a little behind the ball today. Good thing it's not a betting day. That's tomorrow. Fox sports never updated their (power ranking) list so I'm going with the (bleacher report) this week. Ever hear of an alternator for your car costing $1475.00 bucks just for the part? Tough day man.

So lets see. I believe we have some games to watch.

Must win official
Miami
Phillies
Astros

Must lose official
Tigers
Braves
cardinals
Brewers
A's
Dodgers

Unofficial must lose
Washington

Lets rock I need to fix my car.

I just noticed The Tigers/W.Sox game is unofficial.

[Jimmy the Creep]

Lots of action today. Looks like we have 4 official bets and 2 unofficial bets that we could make. I'm only going to bet 3 games and they will be the most likely to win. In my opinion. They are all (A) bets and I will bet 1 unit that's about 5% of my bank.

Faux bank $1075.20 Official bets 10-4 unofficial bets 3-0

Official
Cardinals (A) ML-168
A's (A) ML -160
Dodgers (A) ML-177
Seattle (A) ML-160

Unofficial
Tigers (A) ML-240
Washington (A) ML-110

I'm only going to bet on official games so.

Dodgers $53.00 to win $30.11
Cardinals $53.00 to win $31.55
A's $53.00 to win $33.13

For tracking the system all the games will go into the win lose record. I'm just betting on 3 games because that's all I have the balls to.

[sunshine11]

Lol. I posted my system plays before I checked here. I'm on Cards, Dodgers,Mariners. Not playing seattle
though because they should be in the bottom five! Watch them win.

[Amadeo-Picks]

I love this system honestly , I use the same method with wins and losses on game 1 or 2 of the series to judge my next game winner, without the power rankings . The only problem I have is when it's a four game series . Cause I believe it's really hard to sweep any team , just like it is hard to take 3/4 (those things only happen if the opposite team plays sloppy . But you should take notice to the pitching matchups as we'll . And make Detroit -1 at (-180) as they have verlander vs a spot starter . This bet is more safe than the dodgers or cardinals match ups . The mets have gee on the mound who has been good , close to great this year and wainwright you'd think it's a big mismatch but it's closer than more think . Just like the dodgers and philly game . Philly can hit lefties and if he ryu is not on his game he can be tagged for more than enough runs for Burnett and a struggling dodgers offense . One of the under dogs will come out on top . That's why I'm not betting on those . Just thought id give you my opinion on those two games .

[Amadeo-Picks]

Oh my picks for tonight are :
detroit -1 (-180) Idk if they cover but it's safe bet because I don't see under any imagination Detroit loosing.
reds over pirates . They have cueto on the mound and look for them to even the series .
ive yet to decide if there any other games that are good options , but one to look at is the Marlins game as they have Jose Fernandez on the mound and look for him to pitch a gem and break the away streak . They are not going to go 0-82 on the road and this a perfect time for them to get the w

[Jimmy the Creep]

Sunshine, it's good to see that great systems think a like.

Amadeo, you make some good points, in fact if I looked at some of the other things you mentioned. I might have second thoughts about betting on some of the games we've bet on.

Because I only came up with this system at the tail end of last season I haven't really put it to the test yet. This is the test. What I want to do is run the system with as few filters as possible and only add a filter if I really need to. So far we're going in the right direction and after the Power Ranking list stops having such big swings I think we will be in good shape. It looks like the risk factor is already pretty low. If we add a filter that will help us win more but we may have less action.

Keep it coming, it's all food for thought and we're on the same team.

Your picks look pretty sound to me.

[keel44]

Playing the same team means very little. It is how the teams are currently playing. If you are a good team your winning runs are longer and losing runs shorter and vice versa.

Seattle is not playing well and they are not supposed to be a great team. There is no way they deserve those odds....against anybody right now.

Pittsburgh has not been playing well and Cincy has played a little better. The reds just lost against Pittsburgh. I would like to say that the Reds will not get swept and the juice is favorable as well.

[Jimmy the Creep]

Ok keel, the Cards just won so I was going to jump on Seattle, but you got me thinking. So I looked at where they are on the power ranking list. I realized I goofed. Seattle and the Astros are both in the bottom 5. They should not be a play. So scratch that game. Thanks for waking me up. I'll pay more attention and have more caffeine from now on before playing around here.

[keel44]

I wouldn't be so rigid on those power rankings, best of luck to both of us.

[sunshine11]

I thought they might be bottom 5

[Jimmy the Creep]

Mixed results last night. Still looks good to clean up.

official system bets 11-4 unofficial are 4-0
Faux bank $1075.75

(B) bet day. I'm going to bet 3x's my (A) bet on the A's and the Dodgers. If the A's win I might put 1 unit on Washington.

A's (B) ML-160 $159.00 to win $99.38
Dodgers (B) ML-157 $159.00 to win $101.27

unofficial
Washington (B)

Faux bank $757.20

[Amadeo-Picks]

I'm on those two picks as we'll . I also pick the braves to win earlier and won 3-1 . Let's hope for A's and Dodgers as I have a small parley on the 3 games .

[Jimmy the Creep]

This is slightly aggravating. The A's just got swept. How did that happen ? We seem to have a lot of sweeping going on. Are we getting all that sweeping out of the way early?

This system should work just fine. I wonder if some kind of filter should be added. I wanted to wait until some time in May to see if that was necessary, but this A's sweep is making me rethink that. I want to keep it very simple. Any suggestions on the subject would be welcome.

Here's a thought. Tomorrow the A's play Houston. I have a feeling the A's will not loose the first game. Right now I feel like betting the whole BR on it. I think that's called going on tilt. I know better than that, but ... I still want to do it.

[sunshine11]

The A's fit the system! It will be one of my plays. -164 now line may go down but who knows? Have you been
checking out my plays to see if they match with yours? Because if they do that just makes the play stronger!
Go A's

[Amadeo-Picks]

This is slightly aggravating. The A's just got swept. How did that happen ? We seem to have a lot of sweeping going on. Are we getting all that sweeping out of the way early?

This system should work just fine. I wonder if some kind of filter should be added. I wanted to wait until some time in May to see if that was necessary, but this A's sweep is making me rethink that. I want to keep it very simple. Any suggestions on the subject would be welcome.

Here's a thought. Tomorrow the A's play Houston. I have a feeling the A's will not loose the first game. Right now I feel like betting the whole BR on it. I think that's called going on tilt. I know better than that, but ... I still want to do it.

very , very dissapoiting sweep smh . I went 4/5 on the day and the only loss was this sweep.
And right now this system will work fine , but as you go into the season you should look at the pitching matchups as that's when the great pitchers and hitters take up a notch .
A safe bet tomorrow early in the day is Detroit -1 . You get more value by playing that run line . Trust me they have Scherzer on the mound and won't loose 3/4 to the white soxs .

at night you should back the dodgers even Thoe they came through for me today , they will split that series with Haren on the mound . I'm 3/3 in that series picking philly twice and tonight dodgers to win. Let's hope I'm right and goes 4/4

[keel44]

Texas is a good team, it is not so unlikely for them to sweep anybody. Both the A's and Texas have been on a good run. Your system is O.K., you just need to disregard the power rankings a little bit.

[Jimmy the Creep]

After sleeping on it. I'm no longer on tilt. Just going to take the lose and move on. I'm not ready to loosen up on the power ranking list yet. I'm convinced that the farther apart on the list two teams are the better chance we have of winning. So for now I'm sticking with it. And once we win a bet in a series the bet is done. I was just looking at Detroit Amadeo and that looks like a solid bet and I'd be tempted to go with it, but Detroit already cashed in for us in this series and placing a bet on them just doesn't fit this system. I'm always looking at other threads Sunshine and any time I see other people on the same team we are I get a boost of confidence.

Now for todays news. official bets are now 12-5 unofficial bets are 5-0 Faux bank $1017.47.
Over all we are 17-5 not bad, but the bank sure doesn't show it. Not to worry.

Today we have two games to watch. Both games are a 4 game series. The A's/Astros game to me seems like a no brainer. The A's will win at least one of these games. The problem is that if they win today they won't qualify as a play, because they must loose the first game. After being swept yesterday I don't see any way in hell they will lose to the Astros. The A's are #1 on the list and the Astros are # 30 on the list. For tracking purposes we will just watch this game and see what happens. If I don't that will deviate from the system and I can't have that. I feel so sure the A's will win today that I will make a bet on them with my personal BR.

Games to watch official must loose
A's

Official must win
Astros

unofficial must win
Washington

Looks like we will have some more games to watch tomorrow.