Bread's World Baseball Classic Futures
It seems like it’s been forever since I was able to watch some baseball. The 2009 World Baseball Classic is now upon us, much to the delight of yours truly. In the wee hours of Thursday morning, the event will kick off when China plays Japan. From there, the games will keep on coming, as 16 countries battle it out.
The teams are split up into four pools, with the top two placers moving on to the second round. The first two rounds are double-elimination, which will always breathe second life into your wagers. TheGreek currently has odds on out on the team to win each pool, as well as the overall winner. Below are the listed odds, as well as some thoughts.
POOL A – From Tokyo
China +5000
Chinese Taipei +500
Japan -350
Korea +200
Japan is a heavy favorite to win here, as they feature several recognizable MLB stars. Dice-K Matsuzaka, Iwamura, Fukudome and Ichiro will all be playing in front of a home crowd in Tokyo. This reminds me that attending a baseball game in Tokyo is on my list of things to do. I have a cousin who did this, and she told me that during at-bats, they would pump uncensored rap through the loudspeaker. She said it was so loud, that the bass would shake the walls. The best part is that all the Asian fans would be rapping along word for word, including every F-bomb. This sounds just surreal enough that I have to see it in person!
I have to party with these people
The Japanese are the defending champs, as they beat Cuba in the 2006 finale. They will certainly advance, but I’m making a play on Chinese Taipei to win this pool. A couple of players to keep an eye on here are outfielder Che-Hsuan Lin and second baseman/outfielder Chih-Hsien Chiang. Both players are in the Red Sox farm system, and Lin especially has been making some noise in Greenville and at the Olympics in Beijing. Sure, Japan looks like safe money there, but I’m playing safe in Pools C and D. I’m taking some risks here, and definitely in Pool B as well.
POOL B – From Mexico City
Australia +2000
Cuba -500
Mexico +200
South Africa +5000
Australia +2000
Cuba -500
Mexico +200
South Africa +5000
Last Classic’s runner-up, Cuba, is the biggest favorite to win their respective pool. They are returning many players from that team. One player who is not returning is White Sox infielder Alexi Ramirez. He had quite a performance in ’06, and hasn’t looked back since he joined Chicago. Regardless, this Cuban team remains strong. I like them to make a repeat appearance in the final game, but once again, I’m going to put some money on a big longshot to win this pool.
Supports the DH rule
The hometown Mexican team could be a nice play here. Their key player is Joakim Soria. The Kansas City pitcher has become my favorite closer in baseball. Several other major leaguers make this team intriguing, but like I said, I’m going with a big dog here.
No, not South Africa. That would be just silly. This isn’t cricket. My play is Australia at +2000. I know, this isn’t rugby either, but I’m taking a shot with the Aussies. Two thirds of the team are in MLB’s circuit, and maybe, just maybe, they can improve on their last appearance here when they went winless. That would make Bread happy.
POOL C – From Toronto
Canada +1000
Italy +10,000
USA -250
Venezuela +350
Canada +1000
Italy +10,000
USA -250
Venezuela +350
OK enough funny business, as the bid for underdogs ends now. Italy is +10,000 which is funny because that’s also the number of combined vowels in the team’s last names. That wasn’t that funny, but watching the Italians play will be. Don’t waste a single lira on them.
The Canadian team boasts MLB hitters Russell Martin, Justin Morneau, Joey Votto, Jason Bay, Matt Stairs and Mark Teahen. That’s a pretty formidable line-up that could pose some problems. Their best hope is to advance by taking second place. The USA is going to exact some revenge on Canada for giving us Celine Dion, and it’s not going to be pretty.
You will pay dearly, Canada
The US team reads like a who’s who of MLB stars: Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, JJ Putz, Derek Jeter, Chipper Jones, Dustin Pedroia, Jimmy Rollins, Curtis Granderson, Ryan Braun and David Wright stand out in particular. They should win this group and win it easily.
I gave a bit of a look at Venezuela at +350 until I realized that their five standout players (Felix Hernandez, Jose Lopez, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez) were all on the two most disappointing teams in the Majors last year (Mariners and Tigers). That’s not the kind of shame that you can bounce back from too quickly.
POOL D – From San Juan
Dominican Republic -300
Netherlands +10,000
Panama +175
Puerto Rico +350
Dominican Republic -300
Netherlands +10,000
Panama +175
Puerto Rico +350
I like the Netherlands because they give me an excuse to make jokes about Joran van der Sloot and Natalee Holloway, not because they are a baseball powerhouse. No thanks.
The Never-lands
I see the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico advancing here. Panama could have some trouble keeping up. The Dominican team is more stacked than even the Americans, and I’ll be playing them to win the D Pool.
The Dominicans have some of the game’s top players in A-Rod, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Big Papi. Throw in some household names like Alou, Pedro, Olivo, Beltre, Cano, Tejada and Jose Guillen, and it looks like a winner to me. I won’t be stopping there either. Here are the odds to win it all:
Final – From Los Angeles
Australia +25,000
Canada +10,000
China +20,000
Chinese Taipei +5,000
Cuba +800
Dominican Republic +200
Italy +8,000
Japan +400
Korea +1500
Mexico +2000
Netherlands +17,500
Panama +3000
Puerto Rico +1500
South Africa +25,000
USA +240
Venezuela +1200
Australia +25,000
Canada +10,000
China +20,000
Chinese Taipei +5,000
Cuba +800
Dominican Republic +200
Italy +8,000
Japan +400
Korea +1500
Mexico +2000
Netherlands +17,500
Panama +3000
Puerto Rico +1500
South Africa +25,000
USA +240
Venezuela +1200
It’s almost time for Final Four talk, so let me get warmed up here. I have USA, Dominican Republic, Cuba and Japan in my Classic Final Four. Meeting in the finals, I’m going with the Dominicans against the Cubans. My pick to win it all is the Dominican team. There is news that a hip injury could force A-Rod from the WBC. That won’t change my play, and will make them even more fun to root for.
It would be nice if I could get better odds than just +200, but I see it as a pretty decent shot to double up your money. Now if only I could get Danny Almonte on the Dominican team. I wonder if he would he be listed in the program as being 45 years old?
What birth certificate?
