2009 MLB Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks hitters hope for No K Corral in '09
Arizona's fast start in 2008 fizzled in part due to their offense posting too many K's on the scorecard, and their ability to change that is crucial for the Diamondbacks in 2009.
My simulations set me up for a losing wager last year when every number I crunched, ever projection the computer spit out and each way I sliced up the roster had the Diamondbacks emerging at the top of the NL West. In the end, the win projections were off by seven, a small percentage if you look at it over the course of 162 games, but a huge amount that meant the difference in a loss at the window.
Of course, it looked like the wisest wager I made for the first month of the season. Arizona was like a Roman candle early, firing off one win after another to finish the season’s first month with a 20-8 record, the top record in the bigs and good enough to give them a big 5½-game cushion in the NL West. In those first 28 games of the season, the D-Backs pushed 165 runs across the plate while allowing but 109, a scoring average of 5.9 to 3.9. When you can cover the run line on average, you’ll win a lot of ball games.
That’s pretty much when the party ended, however. Though Arizona stayed in the hunt up until the final week when a three-game sweep at the hands of the Cardinals in St. Louis took the bite out of their fangs, they were not the same team from May on that they were in April. Over their final 134 games the Diamondbacks were outscored by a 4.5 to 4.1 margin on average.
Naturally, the sims this time appear to be setting me up for more failure as the numbers suggest Arizona is once again the team to beat in the NL West. But then I’m getting ahead of myself, so let’s look at the roster and see if we can find where my numbers may be misleading me once again.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
There is still a lot of youth in this everyday lineup, as there has been for a couple of seasons now. And with youth comes inconsistency as they grow and mature. But for several of the budding youngsters, while they’re still young entering the 2009 season, they’ve had enough time to start displaying more maturity at the plate.
Assuming the current roster sticks and the most likely everyday lineup remains the same, the Diamondbacks will not have a regular position player over the age of 29 on Opening Day. Keep that in mind.
The one stat that still sticks out for me from this team last season is 1,287 strikeouts, second to the Florida Marlins who, like the D-Backs, are a young club. That number has to improve by at least 10% this season if Arizona is going to be a factor in their division. Just lopping 10% off the team total would mean another 125-130 balls put into play. And once a ball is in play, anything can happen.
The three biggest contributors to that K total were third baseman Mark Reynolds (204 strikeouts in 152 games), and outfielders Chris Young (165 K, 160 G) and Justin Upton (121 K, 108 G). For Reynolds, his 204 whiffs set a new single season major league record. All three are back and expected to start once again.
Reynolds’ partner on the left side of the infield will be Stephen Drew at shortstop. Drew showed marked improvement at the plate in all areas except K:BB ratio. Chad Tracy will be across the diamond at first with the only real newcomer to the lineup at second, Felipe Lopez. Manager Bob Melvin is going to look at Lopez in the leadoff slot this spring, and right now I can’t say too much of anything positive about that experiment. We’ll have to see how it all shakes out in the next four weeks or so.
Young and Upton will be in center and right and are the keys to making this offense go. Young experienced a bit of a sophomore jinx as the league adjusted to him, and now it’s his turn to adjust and improve. Upton, the No. 1 overall pick in 2005, at least showed more patience at the plate in his first full season than Young did in his second.
Rounding out the outfield is Conor Jackson out in left. Finally, someone on this team that has some plate discipline.
Chris Snyder is the catcher, adding a little pop to the order. But it’s apparent he will always be a .250 hitter at best, something you can get away with in lineups that don’t already have so many hitters that struggle to bat .250. Miguel Montero is a catcher with some promise, but for now the club appears stubborn in their desire to keep Snyder as their No. 1 guy.
The bench is a little thin, to put it lightly. Tony Clark and Eric Byrnes are two of the guys who will ride the pines at least to start the season. In the case of Byrnes, that’s an $11 million reserve. Ouch.
PITCHING
There are a few missing ingredients from the mound corps that was the strength of the team a year ago, and should prove to be the strength once again. The staff led the NL in fewest walks issued (451), ranked third in strikeouts, second in fewest home runs allowed and fifth in ERA, coming home just below the 4.00 mark.
Any staff that starts with Brandon Webb and Dan Haren in the 1-2 spots of the rotation should be better than average. Webb has been amazingly consistent the past few seasons, starting last year by winning his first nine starts on his way to a 22-win season and finishing second in the NL Cy Young voting for a second straight year. Like Webb, Haren has proved to be very reliable making at least 33 starts four seasons running and seeing his K:BB ratio improve along the way, setting a personal high with 206 strikeouts to just 40 walks in ’08 over the course of 216 frames.
What happens behind those two, and behind all of the starters in the bullpen, is unknown right now. The D-Backs essentially replaced Randy Johnson with Jon Garland when they inked the former Angels starter to a one-year deal in late January. Doug Davis, the only southpaw in the rotation now, pitched through his cancer treatment last year and, at 33, is the old man of the group now.
In the five-hole coming out of spring will be Max Scherzer who is coming back from some surgery and could eventually give this staff three aces along with Webb and Haren. The latest reports from the team’s website point to Scherzer being brought along slowly and possibly starting the season on the DL, if only for a couple of weeks.
If Scherzer isn’t ready by mid-April at the latest, or if another starter were to go down, Yusmeiro Petit and Billy Buckner – no relation, if you were wondering – are the most likely candidates to step into the rotation.
Two key contributors are missing from last year’s pen, closer Brandon Lyon and setup arm Juan Cruz. What’s left behind is Chad Qualls to step into the ninth inning role with Jon Rauch to serve as the primary setup arm to Qualls. Surprisingly, the duo was remarkably effective in the simulation runs. For Qualls, that isn’t such a stretch as he performed well in the closing role late last season. But Rauch will have to show something from the start after he was horribly inconsistent following Arizona’s trade to land him from Washington last July.
Qualls and Rauch could have solid seasons, and it might not matter much if the rest of the relievers can’t step up. Tony Peña and Scott Schoenweis are two that should emerge with jobs, with Schoenweis possibly the most overpaid lefty specialist in the game. Of course, with an $11 million reserve outfielder like Byrnes, Schoenweis’ $3.6 million ain’t no big thing.
There might be some help eventually if Tom Gordon can actually make it back. The Arizona Republic reported Gordon was starting to throw off flat ground recently in camp but would not take to the mound for another week or so and most likely begin the season on the DL. Buckner and Petit, plus Juan Gutierrez also figure into the bullpen depending on their spring showings.
SCHEDULE
If the Diamondbacks are to be a strong player in the NL West, or the NL playoff picture overall, we might know it very soon into the season. They begin the year with a huge advantage playing the vast majority of their games at home. Of course, they will have to give those games back eventually, with their August schedule a tough one. But if the D-Backs get off to a slow start playing mostly at home, it might be a good sign to hedge any futures you might have with them and place a wager in May on the Dodgers.
Somehow, someway, Arizona went through five simulations without a losing record in any of the runs. Their high mark was 91 and their low was 82, averaging 84.6 over the course of the exercise. Assuming neither Webb nor Haren misses any time, and Qualls can perform in the closer’s role, I like them in the 83-85 win range and will wait for the break marks to come out on win totals before making a play.
Arizona is drawing a +825 price at The Greek to win their second NL Pennant, making the Diamondbacks the sixth choice at that shop. They’re listed at +1850 to win their second World Series title.
Arizona's fast start in 2008 fizzled in part due to their offense posting too many K's on the scorecard, and their ability to change that is crucial for the Diamondbacks in 2009.
My simulations set me up for a losing wager last year when every number I crunched, ever projection the computer spit out and each way I sliced up the roster had the Diamondbacks emerging at the top of the NL West. In the end, the win projections were off by seven, a small percentage if you look at it over the course of 162 games, but a huge amount that meant the difference in a loss at the window.
Of course, it looked like the wisest wager I made for the first month of the season. Arizona was like a Roman candle early, firing off one win after another to finish the season’s first month with a 20-8 record, the top record in the bigs and good enough to give them a big 5½-game cushion in the NL West. In those first 28 games of the season, the D-Backs pushed 165 runs across the plate while allowing but 109, a scoring average of 5.9 to 3.9. When you can cover the run line on average, you’ll win a lot of ball games.
That’s pretty much when the party ended, however. Though Arizona stayed in the hunt up until the final week when a three-game sweep at the hands of the Cardinals in St. Louis took the bite out of their fangs, they were not the same team from May on that they were in April. Over their final 134 games the Diamondbacks were outscored by a 4.5 to 4.1 margin on average.
Naturally, the sims this time appear to be setting me up for more failure as the numbers suggest Arizona is once again the team to beat in the NL West. But then I’m getting ahead of myself, so let’s look at the roster and see if we can find where my numbers may be misleading me once again.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
There is still a lot of youth in this everyday lineup, as there has been for a couple of seasons now. And with youth comes inconsistency as they grow and mature. But for several of the budding youngsters, while they’re still young entering the 2009 season, they’ve had enough time to start displaying more maturity at the plate.
Assuming the current roster sticks and the most likely everyday lineup remains the same, the Diamondbacks will not have a regular position player over the age of 29 on Opening Day. Keep that in mind.
The one stat that still sticks out for me from this team last season is 1,287 strikeouts, second to the Florida Marlins who, like the D-Backs, are a young club. That number has to improve by at least 10% this season if Arizona is going to be a factor in their division. Just lopping 10% off the team total would mean another 125-130 balls put into play. And once a ball is in play, anything can happen.
The three biggest contributors to that K total were third baseman Mark Reynolds (204 strikeouts in 152 games), and outfielders Chris Young (165 K, 160 G) and Justin Upton (121 K, 108 G). For Reynolds, his 204 whiffs set a new single season major league record. All three are back and expected to start once again.
Reynolds’ partner on the left side of the infield will be Stephen Drew at shortstop. Drew showed marked improvement at the plate in all areas except K:BB ratio. Chad Tracy will be across the diamond at first with the only real newcomer to the lineup at second, Felipe Lopez. Manager Bob Melvin is going to look at Lopez in the leadoff slot this spring, and right now I can’t say too much of anything positive about that experiment. We’ll have to see how it all shakes out in the next four weeks or so.
Young and Upton will be in center and right and are the keys to making this offense go. Young experienced a bit of a sophomore jinx as the league adjusted to him, and now it’s his turn to adjust and improve. Upton, the No. 1 overall pick in 2005, at least showed more patience at the plate in his first full season than Young did in his second.
Rounding out the outfield is Conor Jackson out in left. Finally, someone on this team that has some plate discipline.
Chris Snyder is the catcher, adding a little pop to the order. But it’s apparent he will always be a .250 hitter at best, something you can get away with in lineups that don’t already have so many hitters that struggle to bat .250. Miguel Montero is a catcher with some promise, but for now the club appears stubborn in their desire to keep Snyder as their No. 1 guy.
The bench is a little thin, to put it lightly. Tony Clark and Eric Byrnes are two of the guys who will ride the pines at least to start the season. In the case of Byrnes, that’s an $11 million reserve. Ouch.
PITCHING
There are a few missing ingredients from the mound corps that was the strength of the team a year ago, and should prove to be the strength once again. The staff led the NL in fewest walks issued (451), ranked third in strikeouts, second in fewest home runs allowed and fifth in ERA, coming home just below the 4.00 mark.
Any staff that starts with Brandon Webb and Dan Haren in the 1-2 spots of the rotation should be better than average. Webb has been amazingly consistent the past few seasons, starting last year by winning his first nine starts on his way to a 22-win season and finishing second in the NL Cy Young voting for a second straight year. Like Webb, Haren has proved to be very reliable making at least 33 starts four seasons running and seeing his K:BB ratio improve along the way, setting a personal high with 206 strikeouts to just 40 walks in ’08 over the course of 216 frames.
What happens behind those two, and behind all of the starters in the bullpen, is unknown right now. The D-Backs essentially replaced Randy Johnson with Jon Garland when they inked the former Angels starter to a one-year deal in late January. Doug Davis, the only southpaw in the rotation now, pitched through his cancer treatment last year and, at 33, is the old man of the group now.
In the five-hole coming out of spring will be Max Scherzer who is coming back from some surgery and could eventually give this staff three aces along with Webb and Haren. The latest reports from the team’s website point to Scherzer being brought along slowly and possibly starting the season on the DL, if only for a couple of weeks.
If Scherzer isn’t ready by mid-April at the latest, or if another starter were to go down, Yusmeiro Petit and Billy Buckner – no relation, if you were wondering – are the most likely candidates to step into the rotation.
Two key contributors are missing from last year’s pen, closer Brandon Lyon and setup arm Juan Cruz. What’s left behind is Chad Qualls to step into the ninth inning role with Jon Rauch to serve as the primary setup arm to Qualls. Surprisingly, the duo was remarkably effective in the simulation runs. For Qualls, that isn’t such a stretch as he performed well in the closing role late last season. But Rauch will have to show something from the start after he was horribly inconsistent following Arizona’s trade to land him from Washington last July.
Qualls and Rauch could have solid seasons, and it might not matter much if the rest of the relievers can’t step up. Tony Peña and Scott Schoenweis are two that should emerge with jobs, with Schoenweis possibly the most overpaid lefty specialist in the game. Of course, with an $11 million reserve outfielder like Byrnes, Schoenweis’ $3.6 million ain’t no big thing.
There might be some help eventually if Tom Gordon can actually make it back. The Arizona Republic reported Gordon was starting to throw off flat ground recently in camp but would not take to the mound for another week or so and most likely begin the season on the DL. Buckner and Petit, plus Juan Gutierrez also figure into the bullpen depending on their spring showings.
SCHEDULE
If the Diamondbacks are to be a strong player in the NL West, or the NL playoff picture overall, we might know it very soon into the season. They begin the year with a huge advantage playing the vast majority of their games at home. Of course, they will have to give those games back eventually, with their August schedule a tough one. But if the D-Backs get off to a slow start playing mostly at home, it might be a good sign to hedge any futures you might have with them and place a wager in May on the Dodgers.
- Open with a 9-game homestand, 18 of first 21 games at home
- 31-21 (Home-Away) through May; 66-66 through August
- 19 of 28 games in August on the road
- 6-3 (Home-Away) vs. Houston; 6-9 vs AL
Somehow, someway, Arizona went through five simulations without a losing record in any of the runs. Their high mark was 91 and their low was 82, averaging 84.6 over the course of the exercise. Assuming neither Webb nor Haren misses any time, and Qualls can perform in the closer’s role, I like them in the 83-85 win range and will wait for the break marks to come out on win totals before making a play.
Arizona is drawing a +825 price at The Greek to win their second NL Pennant, making the Diamondbacks the sixth choice at that shop. They’re listed at +1850 to win their second World Series title.
