Grinders backtest of 20?? - 2013 ended +122 units

[Grinder12000]

How I got to this point

Watching and charting MLB chases NHL Chases and NBA I was getting an idea for a system that would alleviate those mind numbing losses which are the reason many chases go belly up.

* Note - Wallcos NHL Gold system is very good - any system that wins more then one year in a row NOT backtesting but real time wagers has my seal of approval! LOL

HOWEVER - I liked the chase concept. I feel the problem was people in MLB is we are looking at to short anomaly streaks and not taking advantage of REAL streaks.

SO - put every game with associated lines and did team by team number crunching KNOWING it was not exact THIS time. But the first step in systems is just knowing if you are on the right track. +122 seems to say yes.

However NOT taken into account is when two teams play each other and other weirdness.

SO - I am taking a year in the past that I have no clue what happened - and a week at a time will run my system. If it works - GREAT, if not, I save some money LOL.

Follow along. You will be ahead of the curve next year! :-)

[Grinder12000]

It takes 15 games to start the system so I have a little work before the "season" actually starts.

This will be fun . . . . I hope.

I'll use ScoresandOdds lines to make this even more official.

As I start posting results I'll start to explain the system in greater detail. It's a chase without the numbing losses.

[Grinder12000]

WEEK 1 +1.59units

Basic rules - THREE game chase*
15 game moving average
start PLAYING a team if =>.733
Start FADING (bet against) a team =<.267

Always play to WIN one unit
* chase ends after 3rd loss OR team goes below .733 or above .267 in moving average.

What this does (in theory) is get rid of the HUGE losses.

TEAM / 15 game W/L% vs. other team
After 15 games there are 5 teams hot or cold. Team listed FIRST is the team the system is using.
LINE is the team we are playing.

Example = Baltimore has won 2 of the last 15 games - we fade them and play Seattle for -205. We won so we gain 1 unit.

Balt Fade
Chi Sox Fade
Minnesota
NYYankees
Tampa Bay all are PLAY


4/21
1A - Balt vs. Sea -200 W +1.00

4/22
2A Minn -200 vs. Cleve L -2.00
3A TB +100 vs. CHISox W +1.00

4/23
3A Balt vs. Bost -230 W +1.00
4A ChiSox vs. Sea -140 L -0.71 *Finished
2B Minn -128 vs. KC W +3.00 (2.00u + 1u) *Finished
5A NYY -135 vs. LAA L -1.35
6A TB -240 vs. Tor W +1.00

4/24
7A Balt vs. Bost -174 W +1.00
8A NYY -132 vs. LAA W +1.00
9A TB -152 vs. Tor W +1.00

4/25
10A Balt vs. Bost -160 L -1.60
11A TB -200 vs. Tor W +1.00

4/26

4/27
10B Balt vs. NYY -183 L -4.75(1.6u + 1u)= 2.6u * 1.83= 4.758u wagered and lost - the NEXT game I will ad 4.758u (10B) + 1.6u (10A) +1u to win 7.358 units. PM me if you want an easy explanation.

13A TB -176 Vs. Oak W +1.00

Notice series 4A - it was a loss but the series does not continue. White Sox were on the edge of going bad but won the game and are now in limbo land so series ends.

I have no idea how to makes this more readable - I'll figure out something

[jonny2k4]

Looking fwd to this. BOL

[44 Mag]

Hey Einstein, are you crazy??? you think there is a system Vegas hasn't figured out.

[imotiv8]

Hey Einstein, are you crazy??? you think there is a system Vegas hasn't figured out.

lol...you must be new to sports betting if you think you CANT make money with systems

[44 Mag]

Not new @ all. Been quiet this year on this blog. My(2) clients have made over 55,000.00 on my suggestions, that is were my time was spent. And yes, there is no system that can beat the odds, you pick & choose games carefully, not every night, and decide the best VALUE for the bet. Such as team totals, over/unders money lines etc. You don't just sit there hoping some bull.... system might work. The NBA takes night off, we all know that. MLB is streaky to say the least, and the NFL, well they are a different animal, rivalries, injuries, venue, division games and on & on. Again, it all comes down to the value of the bet. Try, you might win.

[Grinder12000]

Well 44 Mag - I've been doing this for over 50 years now (before computers) and you can believe what you wish to believe. I'm sure your "clients" are very happy.

Plus - you think Las Vegas gives a rats ass on if we win or not? They don't care if we win at all. In fact they WANT winners. Winners mean more revenue for them. Or should I explain how "Las Vegas" works.

One thing I will say - this is freaking hard - I might give up posting day by day and just month by month.

[Grinder12000]

OK here are the units won in 2013 by all MLB teams and I'll add onto it as I go.

	2013
Arizona	0.00
Atlanta	14.96
Balt	0.00
Bost	8.19
ChiCub	9.84
ChiSox	8.37
Cinci	1.78
Cleve	9.84
Colo	-6.88
Det	1.13
Hou	35.16
KC	0.52
LAA	-10.58
LAD	33.17
Mia	-6.84
Mil	6.81
Minn	-4.84
NYM	-3.64
NYY	-5.29
Oak	19.06
Phill	8.68
Pitts	0.13
SD	7.54
SF	-5.56
Sea	-1.79
StL	-6.35
TB	8.03
Tex	0.00
Tor	-2.04
Wash	3.34
Tot Units	122.74

[NittanyLionsFan]

If you think Toronto lost units this year, you're an absolute moron. Toronto won more units than Houston, and not only did they win units...they had more wins in the standings than every single other American League team. The only team who won more games this season than Toronto is STL.

[Grinder12000]

NittanyLionsFan - can you read? Those are units INSIDE THE SYSTEM!!! moron.

[Grinder12000]

one year and one month in the books

	2013 units	2010-Apr units
Arizona	0.00	0.00
Atlanta	14.96	0.00
Balt	0.00	1.24
Bost	8.19	0.00
ChiCub	9.84	0.00
ChiSox	8.37	-1.50
Cinci	1.78	0.00
Cleve	9.84	0.00
Colo	-6.88	0.00
Det	1.13	0.00
Hou	35.16	0.00
KC	0.52	0.00
LAA	-10.58	0.00
LAD	33.17	0.00
Mia	-6.84	0.00
Mil	6.81	0.00
Minn	-4.84	0.09
NYM	-3.64	-4.54
NYY	-5.29	0.30
Oak	19.06	0.00
Phill	8.68	0.00
Pitts	0.13	0.00
SD	7.54	4.00
SF	-5.56	0.00
Sea	-1.79	0.00
StL	-6.35	0.00
TB	8.03	1.87
Tex	0.00	0.00
Tor	-2.04	0.00
Wash	3.34	0.00
Tot Units	122.74	1.46
Pace		21.46

NOT a great April - but still winning

[torontovigilante]

Grinder, don't engage, just ignore. Post your system and let it speak for itself. Best of luck.

[torontovigilante]

My(2) clients have made over 55,000.00 on my suggestions,
_______________________________________

I'm been handicapping for 12 years now, and I love how "people" come online and tout numbers without any proof. If you want us to take you seriously, post the proof. If not, make constructive suggestions on why you think the system won't work, and not because you give people "suggestions" that you can't even prove or knock systems. We're all here to learn and dialogue, so engage politely and learn some etiquette.

[Grinder12000]

It's fine torontovigilante - happens everywhere - my best friend NEVER loses a virtual bet! LOL
----------------------------
Here is one sequence. This will give anybody an idea of what I'm doing.

First line is a 15 day moving average - Notice Tampa Bay had a couple chases in April - this system is only a THREE game chase - UNLESS - your moving average falls below .733 as it did in the last 2 games and the first couple. Then just stop and wait for the Ma to move above .733 again )or below .267)

Tampa Bay late April early May 2010

win% Line daily result

0.733
0.733	+110	1.00
0.667	-240	-2.40
0.733	No play	because of .667
0.733	-200	1.00
0.800	-180	1.00
0.867	-155	1.00
0.867	-240	1.00
0.800	-260	-2.60
0.733	-300	-10.80
0.733	-145	14.40
0.733	-150	1.00
0.733	+110	1.00
0.733	-150	1.00
0.800	-132	1.00
0.733	-159	-1.59
0.667	-160	-4.14

I have to correct the totals graph - I mistyped.

As I said - I don't know where this is going - one year does not make a system.

[husky]

How does the moving 15 days work? Do the 15 days start over whenever the winning % is met or falls off?

[Grinder12000]

Straight 15 games. Last in first out. Use the Fx function for AVERAGE. This for each W=1 L=0

The key is finding a few teams that just go crazy. And ride the wave. Testing has been interesting. I'm like reading an exciting book not knowing where this is going.

[NittanyLionsFan]

Hilarity at its finest with this Grinder12000000 clown.

[Grinder12000]

Thank you Nit - I appreciate that.

[bauerranch]

You have trolls and you have not made one prediction yet........LOL

[Grinder12000]

A quick update - this won't be as fun as I thought - at least for now. I want to see if this is a viable idea. After going through 2 months I was underwhelmed so I decided to do a few complete years for teams.

remember - I'm looking for HOT HOT or COLD COLD teams

Here is the short list iof teams I've compiled.

	UNITS	WON
	2013	2010
Arizona	0.00	-0.75
Atlanta	14.96	7.25
Balt	0.00	17.03

[igziabeher]

OK here are the units won in 2013 by all MLB teams and I'll add onto it as I go.

	2013
Arizona	0.00
Atlanta	14.96
Balt	0.00
Bost	8.19
ChiCub	9.84
ChiSox	8.37
Cinci	1.78
Cleve	9.84
Colo	-6.88
Det	1.13
Hou	35.16
KC	0.52
LAA	-10.58
LAD	33.17
Mia	-6.84
Mil	6.81
Minn	-4.84
NYM	-3.64
NYY	-5.29
Oak	19.06
Phill	8.68
Pitts	0.13
SD	7.54
SF	-5.56
Sea	-1.79
StL	-6.35
TB	8.03
Tex	0.00
Tor	-2.04
Wash	3.34
Tot Units	122.74

I have tried this, and considering some results here, you have to be on a 4 games chase at times (Atlanta, White Sox, Detroit). But I am interested in some points :
- Minnesota, if you play a 4 games chase, should have costed you far more than only 4 units I think. Two 4 games chase losses (1 costing around 23 units, another close to ASG costing around 37 units).
- From Arizona to Miami, you are earning 98.66 units. I have done the same and I am earning 75.77 units. This without Minnesota costing 51.31 units.

Not trolling at all, maybe some things I have not understood.
You back a team when the team has won 11 or more game in their last 15. You stop backing the team when it has won less than 11 games last 15. Your results don't show that you're playing a 3-games chase, but a 4-games chase. So only stop when less than 11 wins in last 15.
Same thing with teams with 4 or less wins in their last 15, you fade them.
Am I right ?

[Grinder12000]

This went belly up and I'm once again looking for a good system. Fantastic year one and then when I went to season to - I got bitch slapped!! Everything was going great but all of a sudden some teams were going contrary - I put it as an anomaly for a while but it started happening way to many times for comfort. When you have chases you really have to be almost perfect!

igziabeher - What I was doing was if you were IN a chase and the pct hit a spot I stopped early hoping to prevent a horrific loss and it was working but . . . . . there were teams that lost 12 in a row and then won 6 in a row that crushed the idea.

Thanks anyway . . . . Still doing my NBA system.