Much like the Cards situation last night - I have a live series play on A's here (smaller amount than last night's +180 Cards winning tkt but at a fatter +290 price). Could easily hedge out of the series ticket at this point for a reasonable guaranteed profit or just sit on that ticket and watch the game with the best of it.
Gambling-wise, one of those moves would be the judicious the thing to do.
Baseball-wise, however - as we've seen all year - there is just something special about this A's club - they battle harder and give away less on both offense and defense than any team in MLB - and they've been so good to us this year that I have to finish it out all the way with them. So I'm pressing it up a bit with 5, 9 and Alt. RL plays tonight.
I think the A's will be relaxed yet fired up and the Tigers - despite the comeback in gm 4 - will be the tighter club coming in here. Leyland would have much preferred to have saved Scherzer for this one and have Verlander teed up for gm 1 vs BoSox - but he was forced to change that plan. I also like the A's pitching change. It was anything but the safe, CYA way to go. Going with the kid is a bold, in your face move - and you've gotta love what you've seen from Sonny Gray. Although he looks like he's 12, he commands the mound like he owns it.
As to Verlander - I don't go against him very often. He's still of course great - and he looked like his old, unhittable self in gm2 - plus having Tom Hallion back there calling 'em tonight is a bonus for him. Hallion loves to ring guys up and he makes hitters very trigger happy with 2 strikes. It gives a guy like Verlander a nice edge. But the cloak of invincibility Verlander wears is showing a little wear. He has definitely come down a bit from where he was the last few years. It shows in his numbers -
Average FB velocity came down from 95 in 2011 - to 94 in '12 - to 93 in '13.
ERA in '11 was 2.40 - in '12 it was 2.64 - and this year 3.46.
BBs per 9 in '11 was 2.04 - in '12 it was 2.27 and this year 3.09.
And - contrary to conventional wisdom - Verlander does not always win the big game - Barry Zito beat him in the World Series last year. The Giants had a far weaker lineup than these A's and Verlander was gone after 4 innings as SF put up 5 runs on him. I remember because I had him and it was the only World Series game I lost last year.
I expect a great game. If the baseball gods are smiling on the White Elephants we might see -
A shaky 1st inning from Verlander - would be nice to get him in the stretch early
Great A's plate discipline - giving away nothing - making him work - no chasing the CU - hitting the FB
Some hitter's counts - some Verlander walks - a Verlander mistake or two - and a long ball or two by Moss or Donaldson or one of the A's LHers
Some forcing of the action on the basepaths by the A's - and none by the Tigers
Maybe even an outfield assist from the A's big outfield arms - Cespedes and Reddick
Some problems with the Tigers infield defense - esp at the corners
And some double plays turned by the A's infield
If we get even some of those things - we may see the champagne corks popping on the home side.
Player of Game - Coco Crisp (if not Sonny Gray)Good Luck to All.
Gambling-wise, one of those moves would be the judicious the thing to do.
Baseball-wise, however - as we've seen all year - there is just something special about this A's club - they battle harder and give away less on both offense and defense than any team in MLB - and they've been so good to us this year that I have to finish it out all the way with them. So I'm pressing it up a bit with 5, 9 and Alt. RL plays tonight.
I think the A's will be relaxed yet fired up and the Tigers - despite the comeback in gm 4 - will be the tighter club coming in here. Leyland would have much preferred to have saved Scherzer for this one and have Verlander teed up for gm 1 vs BoSox - but he was forced to change that plan. I also like the A's pitching change. It was anything but the safe, CYA way to go. Going with the kid is a bold, in your face move - and you've gotta love what you've seen from Sonny Gray. Although he looks like he's 12, he commands the mound like he owns it.
As to Verlander - I don't go against him very often. He's still of course great - and he looked like his old, unhittable self in gm2 - plus having Tom Hallion back there calling 'em tonight is a bonus for him. Hallion loves to ring guys up and he makes hitters very trigger happy with 2 strikes. It gives a guy like Verlander a nice edge. But the cloak of invincibility Verlander wears is showing a little wear. He has definitely come down a bit from where he was the last few years. It shows in his numbers -
Average FB velocity came down from 95 in 2011 - to 94 in '12 - to 93 in '13.
ERA in '11 was 2.40 - in '12 it was 2.64 - and this year 3.46.
BBs per 9 in '11 was 2.04 - in '12 it was 2.27 and this year 3.09.
And - contrary to conventional wisdom - Verlander does not always win the big game - Barry Zito beat him in the World Series last year. The Giants had a far weaker lineup than these A's and Verlander was gone after 4 innings as SF put up 5 runs on him. I remember because I had him and it was the only World Series game I lost last year.
I expect a great game. If the baseball gods are smiling on the White Elephants we might see -
A shaky 1st inning from Verlander - would be nice to get him in the stretch early
Great A's plate discipline - giving away nothing - making him work - no chasing the CU - hitting the FB
Some hitter's counts - some Verlander walks - a Verlander mistake or two - and a long ball or two by Moss or Donaldson or one of the A's LHers
Some forcing of the action on the basepaths by the A's - and none by the Tigers
Maybe even an outfield assist from the A's big outfield arms - Cespedes and Reddick
Some problems with the Tigers infield defense - esp at the corners
And some double plays turned by the A's infield
If we get even some of those things - we may see the champagne corks popping on the home side.
Player of Game - Coco Crisp (if not Sonny Gray)Good Luck to All.
