DO TEAMS OFF AN EXTRA INNING GAME TEND TO PLAY UNDER IN THEIR NEXT
GAME?:
A subscriber e-mailed me, and asked me about this, as he said that most
recently at least, the answer appeared to be yes. I finally had a chance to dig
in a little deeper and found the answer, which will be the topic of today's
newsletter.
Would it make sense that perhaps the next day's starting pitcher is perhaps
the only rested player in a game that was obviously tight, required some extra
focus, and left all the players a bit emotionally, as well as physically
drained, going into play the next day?
The premise on a stand alone is a vig eater as the under record stands
at:
1033-918-87 for a win rate of 52.9% which shows profit as a stand
alone.
Digging a bit deeper when the home team is off a loss after an extra inning
game the results take a quantum leap:
433-320-34 for a win rate of 57.5%!! Considering the fact that this is a 10
year sample of nearly 800 games, that is a pretty strong situation. This has an
effective z-score of 4.03, which indicates a situation that is highly
predictive, and will likely continue to provide value.
This situation is enhanced if that extra inning game played under, as it
goes to:
182-127-18 for 58.9% winners.
BUT BUT BUT:
despite what looks to be a better system cashing 58.9% the z-score actually
drops to 3.04 which is still strong, but in this case playing the original vs
the subset is a much more profitable way to go!
GAME?:
A subscriber e-mailed me, and asked me about this, as he said that most
recently at least, the answer appeared to be yes. I finally had a chance to dig
in a little deeper and found the answer, which will be the topic of today's
newsletter.
Would it make sense that perhaps the next day's starting pitcher is perhaps
the only rested player in a game that was obviously tight, required some extra
focus, and left all the players a bit emotionally, as well as physically
drained, going into play the next day?
The premise on a stand alone is a vig eater as the under record stands
at:
1033-918-87 for a win rate of 52.9% which shows profit as a stand
alone.
Digging a bit deeper when the home team is off a loss after an extra inning
game the results take a quantum leap:
433-320-34 for a win rate of 57.5%!! Considering the fact that this is a 10
year sample of nearly 800 games, that is a pretty strong situation. This has an
effective z-score of 4.03, which indicates a situation that is highly
predictive, and will likely continue to provide value.
This situation is enhanced if that extra inning game played under, as it
goes to:
182-127-18 for 58.9% winners.
BUT BUT BUT:
despite what looks to be a better system cashing 58.9% the z-score actually
drops to 3.04 which is still strong, but in this case playing the original vs
the subset is a much more profitable way to go!