MLB - Saturday, 7/13/13

YouHave2outs · 07-13-13, 08:44 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

10 MLB Plays Saturday

YTD: 336-406-19, -42.71

iMpega · 07-13-13, 09:51 AM

OK LT. Gonna parlay all your games, today is gonna be a good day.

hubbard689 · 07-13-13, 10:54 AM

please tell me you're getting some type of frequent player points or something for # of plays LT?

OhMyEli · 07-13-13, 10:57 AM

Good luck. I've noticed you've increased your number of daily plays. Ever consider cutting them in a fraction and going double on just a few?

LT Profits · 07-13-13, 11:08 AM

I am doing nothing different than I've always done, some days are heavier than normal, that has always been the case.

LT Profits · 07-13-13, 11:09 AM

MLB 11-Pack

Originally posted by LT Profits

10 MLB Plays Saturday

Twins +132 (5 Dimes)
Twins / Yankees UNDER 8.5 +105 (Bookmaker)
Reds / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Blue Jays +135 (Heritage)
Cardinals -123 (5 Dimes)
Rockies +165 (5 Dimes)
Marlins -1.5 +180 (5 Dimes)
Rangers +147 (5 Dimes)
Red Sox / Athletics OVER 8 -110 (Bookmaker)
Angels -103 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 336-406-19, -42.71

Adding:

Cardinals / Cubs UNDER 7.5 -112 (5 Dimes)

MLB Card Complete

everythingred · 07-13-13, 11:11 AM

I'm watching somebody with a serious disease

LT Profits · 07-13-13, 11:18 AM

Originally posted by everythingred

I'm watching somebody with a serious disease

No not at all, just look at my past. High volume of smaller edges equaled nice profits. This year models have gone to shit, but on the flip side baseball sharps are getting killed too because beating closing numbers hasn't meant anything. That won't continue, so I am trying to stay the course without changing anything.

everythingred · 07-13-13, 11:59 AM

I've seen your past, you're always in the negatives. NBA was around -30 units, NHL was -19 units.

RavensFan2k3 · 07-13-13, 12:06 PM

Hey LT, can you tell me your angle on the Blue Jays, Angels, and Cardinals?

LT Profits · 07-13-13, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by everythingred

I've seen your past, you're always in the negatives. NBA was around -30 units, NHL was -19 units.

THIS year. But look at previous years. Had something like 16 winnings season across first 18 seasons across all sports at SBR, spanned close to 5 calendar years. Heck, was even close to +50 units in MLB last year. Now, I forgot how to win.

LT Profits · 07-13-13, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Hey LT, can you tell me your angle on the Blue Jays, Angels, and Cardinals?

Angels hit Felix better than any other team in the league. Blue Jays nice price considering Redmond looked good in his first stat and O's have never seen him, while Hammel is proving last year was a fluke. Lynn has done well against the Cubs to neutralize pitching matchup vs. Garza, so difference comes down to St. Louis being better equipped to scratch some runs

BigDofBA · 07-13-13, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by everythingred

I've seen your past, you're always in the negatives. NBA was around -30 units, NHL was -19 units.

Even if that's true, that would make him a top 5 capper here considering most people on this site lose their ass.

I also like the following:

Cardinals
Blue Jays
Rangers
Angels
Marlins

Already on the Twins.

iMpega · 07-13-13, 03:51 PM

2 gone, 8 to go

hubbard689 · 07-13-13, 03:52 PM

how much are your units LT? you a big baller?

LT Profits · 07-13-13, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by hubbard689

how much are your units LT? you a big baller?

2.5% of BR 99% of the time.

Vasco · 07-13-13, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

2.5% of BR 99% of the time.

How much $$$ he means

detroitlionsfan · 07-13-13, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

10 MLB Plays Saturday

Twins +132 (5 Dimes)
Twins / Yankees UNDER 8.5 +105 (Bookmaker)
Reds / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Blue Jays +135 (Heritage)
Cardinals -123 (5 Dimes)
Rockies +165 (5 Dimes)
Marlins -1.5 +180 (5 Dimes)
Rangers +147 (5 Dimes)
Red Sox / Athletics OVER 8 -110 (Bookmaker)
Angels -103 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 336-406-19, -42.71

Big Bear · 07-13-13, 05:32 PM

There is more to being a sharp than beating the closing number. There is actually a game being played on the field

Big Bear · 07-13-13, 05:33 PM

good call on Twins LT i was on them too!

LT Profits · 07-13-13, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by Vasco

How much $$$ he means

That is really nobody's business but my own.

But expressing it as a % of BR, it can be applied to any roll.

italianbandit · 07-13-13, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

There is more to being a sharp than beating the closing number. There is actually a game being played on the field

Bear, no offense you seem like a nice kid, but you have a lot to learn.

iMpega · 07-13-13, 07:01 PM

4 gone 6 to go

Big Bear · 07-14-13, 07:42 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

10 MLB Plays Saturday

Twins +132 (5 Dimes)
Twins / Yankees UNDER 8.5 +105 (Bookmaker)
Reds / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Blue Jays +135 (Heritage)
Cardinals -123 (5 Dimes)
Rockies +165 (5 Dimes)
Marlins -1.5 +180 (5 Dimes)
Rangers +147 (5 Dimes)
Red Sox / Athletics OVER 8 -110 (Bookmaker)
Angels -103 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 336-406-19, -42.71

5-5 would have had a winning day if you had taken Marlins ML instead being greedy with -1.5

Also oakland is not a good ball park for Overs... lots of foul territory and a deep park where the ball does not carry at night.

YouHave2outs · 07-14-13, 09:09 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

THIS year. But look at previous years. Had something like 16 winnings season across first 18 seasons across all sports at SBR, spanned close to 5 calendar years. Heck, was even close to +50 units in MLB last year. Now, I forgot how to win.

you bet 2.5% of your bankroll per play, you have said this multiple times. in 3 straight seasons you lose 30, 19, and 42 units. as a % of your bankroll, i'd really like to know how much losing 2.5% of your bankroll 91 times costs.

In fact, it's simple math. and if you started with a million dollars you'd have around 100k left, if you started with 100k, 10k left..etc. get real. seems like you have a pretty tough road to recovery ahead of you.

LT, what you have said implies your bet sizing right now is 1/10th of what it was at this point 8 or 9 months ago

LT Profits · 07-14-13, 09:49 AM

Originally posted by YouHave2outs

you bet 2.5% of your bankroll per play, you have said this multiple times. in 3 straight seasons you lose 30, 19, and 42 units. as a % of your bankroll, i'd really like to know how much losing 2.5% of your bankroll 91 times costs.

In fact, it's simple math. and if you started with a million dollars you'd have around 100k left, if you started with 100k, 10k left..etc. get real. seems like you have a pretty tough road to recovery ahead of you.

LT, what you have said implies your bet sizing right now is 1/10th of what it was at this point 8 or 9 months ago

Your math is way off, it is nowhere close to 91 unit in "real" world. I recalc BR daily so the % is based on current BR. Thus the size of a unit shrinks as the BR decreases. That is a drawback of grading based on one flat unit per play. On the flipside, think about how much more I won in reality in my winning seasons! +50 units nearly tripled BR last season.

YouHave2outs · 07-14-13, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Your math is way off, it is nowhere close to 91 unit in "real" world. I recalc BR daily so the % is based on current BR. Thus the size of a unit shrinks as the BR decreases. That is a drawback of grading based on one flat unit per play. On the flipside, think about how much more I won in reality in my winning seasons! +50 units nearly tripled BR last season.

bro, that is with recalcing bankroll daily. my math is not way off whatsoever. you must not really be betting these amounts.

if you lose 91u, recalculating your bankroll daily it is simple math. you lose 90% of your bankroll betting 2.5% per. 1 x (.975)^91. if you calculating it flatly you would have lost 225%+ of what you started with (2.5 x 91). with correct math, if you drop 91u betting 2.5% of your bankroll on each play, you lose 90% of your bankroll..

and yeah you can double your bankroll by winning 28-29u, but when you have dropped 90% of it in the last several months you will still be down 80% of your starting bankroll.

hubbard689 · 07-14-13, 10:27 AM

buried like a dog's bone LT

LT Profits · 07-14-13, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by YouHave2outs

bro, that is with recalcing bankroll daily. my math is not way off whatsoever. you must not really be betting these amounts.

if you lose 91u, recalculating your bankroll daily it is simple math. you lose 90% of your bankroll betting 2.5% per. 1 x (.975)^91. if you calculating it flatly you would have lost 225%+ of what you started with (2.5 x 91). with correct math, if you drop 91u betting 2.5% of your bankroll on each play, you lose 90% of your bankroll..

and yeah you can double your bankroll by winning 28-29u, but when you have dropped 90% of it in the last several months you will still be down 80% of your starting bankroll.

OK I see what you are saying, but then we need to determine what to use as "starting" bankroll. Since the beginning of MLB 2012, I am around -68%. Not pretty I know but it's not like I have nothing left to try and turn it around with. And if you consider "starting" to be when I started posting plays and keeping records in 2007, I am probably still up over all posted SBR plays, although obviously going in wrong direction.

LT Profits · 07-14-13, 12:52 PM

Actually I just realized I lost LESS than 68% since MLB. We both forgot that grading in the forum is based on one unit BASE per play, but in real like I be TO WIN. Yes that works both ways, as losses at + odds look worse in the forum and wins at +odds look better in the forum, but since the win % on + odds plays is below .500, total losses overall look worse in forum.

YouHave2outs · 07-14-13, 01:40 PM