Why isn't detroit -230 tonight?

[Marooner]

I feel like they win this game at least 70% of the time, what am I missing?

[Marooner]

I actually think it is closer to 90% than 70% btw. someone on kc please tell me why you take this at less than 2-1.

[Marooner]

scherzer has given up 8 penetrating hits in his last 3 starts (24 innings) on the road. 8 innings each time... 3, 2, and 3 hits respectively. I would consider taking taking det at -500. not joking.

[drfunkmaster]

royals win

[MANIER08]

here is my thought on this. Was thinking same thing for yeasterdays game. why det so low! First ever since Brett has become hitting coach they have really looked good... Although there sweep was agianst Houston Astros. Also the thing that stood out at me the most is look at how hard it is for a team to get a Road win in this division! No team has a winning record on the road in this division. BOL I am also taking det ML tonight most likely but could easily see det going 1-2 in this series. just hope tonight is det's 1!

[Marooner]

det has never lost a game with scherzer starting against kc. 5-0. davis has only beaten det once, and that was a 1 run win when he was with tampa. of course I felt same way when det played @balt week and half ago... scherzer threw a gem only to have valverde come in and give up 2 hrs in the ninth and det lose. Teams I bet literally have twice as many blown saves as saves last 2 weeks, and I have been on right side of extra inning games once out of last 8.

[curtrambus]

Royals are on a 7 game win streak or something that's why it's not 230

[oiler]

well u know what happens when it looks too good to be true

[Slimpickens]

Royals are on a 7 game win streak or something that's why it's not 230

Bingo.

[italianbandit]

Marooner, take a look at Det First Five, run line. That may be the best handle.

[Marooner]

Royals are on a 7 game win streak or something that's why it's not 230

I didn't think they even counted games against hous and minn.

[leetreaper]

scherzer has given up 8 penetrating hits in his last 3 starts (24 innings) on the road. 8 innings each time... 3, 2, and 3 hits respectively. I would consider taking taking det at -500. not joking.

[Avala7ch3]

I didn't think they even counted games against hous and minn.

doesn't matter, they're at home with 6 win streak....in addition .516 home record vs .433 away .... they know each other very well....what else do u want?

[Marooner]

Marooner, take a look at Det First Five, run line. That may be the best handle.

I appreciate the advice, esp after I was jerk to you the other day. but I go through a local who I don't think offers that bet. I will ask though. is that the only way to beat baseball? can the moneylines and totals even be beaten? I do -1.5 runs sometimes too, on a pretty bad string of my team winning by 1 on those also. last night I had sea -1.5 only to have them give up 1 in ninth and win 3-2. also had tb... and they battle back and have bases loaded with 0 outs in tenth, tie game with evan longoria up, and I get crapped on there. is that type of beats just everyday stuff? awhile back I had st Louis in wacha's debut, only to have boggs come in the ninth in a 2-1 game and blow the hell out of a great ballgame. I heard boggs was giving bj's to whoever got a hit off him after that game he was so hell bent on blowing that lead. are managers so stupid that anything can happen all the penetrating time?

[PorkChop]

Tigers 04.5

[Marooner]

doesn't matter, they're at home with 6 win streak....in addition .516 home record vs .433 away .... they know each other very well....what else do u want?

right, they know each other well. and they know that when scherzers pitches, kc loses. no?

[Marooner]

don't they also know that kc doesn't beat det twice in a series let alone in a row? don't they also know that the odds of a 7 game win streak vs a 6 game win streak is 1 in 128 compared to 1 in a 64 for a .500 team? I realize they were favored in 5 of those, and I am not gonna do the exact math, but even say they are on a 1 in 20 run to get to 6 straight, their odds of winning 7 straight against those same 7 opponents before that 7 game series started would have gone from 1/20(theoretically, it's actually worse) to 1/50 if they are giving kc a 40% chance to win tonight?

[italianbandit]

I appreciate the advice, esp after I was jerk to you the other day. but I go through a local who I don't think offers that bet. I will ask though. is that the only way to beat baseball? can the moneylines and totals even be beaten? I do -1.5 runs sometimes too, on a pretty bad string of my team winning by 1 on those also. last night I had sea -1.5 only to have them give up 1 in ninth and win 3-2. also had tb... and they battle back and have bases loaded with 0 outs in tenth, tie game with evan longoria up, and I get crapped on there. is that type of beats just everyday stuff? awhile back I had st Louis in wacha's debut, only to have boggs come in the ninth in a 2-1 game and blow the hell out of a great ballgame. I heard boggs was giving bj's to whoever got a hit off him after that game he was so hell bent on blowing that lead. are managers so stupid that anything can happen all the penetrating time?

No problem, we're men, we can argue a bit but in the end this is a sports investing forum (in some of the posts, at least) and I like to help as I've been doing it for a long while. I would ask as there are some good spots to utilize the first five wager. You could become a first five specialist and it will be a little easier to beat than betting the whole game. But not much easier.

Generally speaking the best way to beat baseball is to look for deals everyday. Pretend you're laptop shopping and looking for a model that scores better than the newer models but is cheaper and not as popular. So you go on several websites and look under the sale tabs and check out the specs. Eventually you see you can get a windows 7 pro laptop that is a generation behind that actually scores better than a brand new windows 8 laptop has way more features and is 50% cheaper.

In baseball that usually equates to betting when perception is low on a team but you see something that shows that it is incorrect. Or perception is higher than it should be on a team but you know that it it's not correct. One could say that after the Spurs won the first game perception on the Heat was lower than it should be and +105 for a series bet was a good investment. So you watch highlights from games every night and study advanced baseball metrics and become informed and wait for good opportunities. You can test how you are doing by looking at closing market data as its generally efficient.

[italianbandit]

And more often than not its avoiding big favorites.

[Avala7ch3]

right, they know each other well. and they know that when scherzers pitches, kc loses. no?

I'm not arguing...actually I passed this game....that was just my opinion, but probably the bookies think in other way...

[Avala7ch3]

And Scherzer is only 7-4 against KS....

[MANIER08]

You are putting to much into the starting pitcher. Dont get me wrong there is alot to be said there. I have also been looking at how the bullpen has pitched with this starting pitcher. Scherzer is 8-0(1.00) when he get the decision. but when he does not and the bullpen gets it their 1-3(.250). so, I would say your wildcard is Valverde! I still like Det ML here but im going to stay away from the RL. Another thing look at bullpen reliefing davis who is 3-5(.375) when he gets the decision. The bullpen reliefing and getting the decision 4-0 (1.00). So here det pitchers might look alittle better than they actually are and KC might be alittle under valued than actually are. But Davis is also pitching agianst DET and not the chi sox. I think the ML is the way to go here! I also got F'ed by the mariners!

[Avala7ch3]

You are putting to much into the starting pitcher. Dont get me wrong there is alot to be said there. I have also been looking at how the bullpen has pitched with this starting pitcher. Scherzer is 8-0(1.00) when he get the decision. but when he does not and the bullpen gets it their 1-3(.250). so, I would say your wildcard is Valverde! I still like Det ML here but im going to stay away from the RL. Another thing look at bullpen reliefing davis who is 3-5(.375) when he gets the decision. The bullpen reliefing and getting the decision 4-0 (1.00). So here det pitchers might look alittle better than they actually are and KC might be alittle under valued than actually are. But Davis is also pitching agianst DET and not the chi sox. I think the ML is the way to go here! I also got F'ed by the mariners!

As I said this game is no playable for me so I'm gonna stay away from it. but this is not because 'Iam putting to much into the starting pitcher'....just opposite - I took too many things into account so I decided this is not my game...I just tried to put myself into bookie's shoes and figure out why the line is not -230...If you feel like you can get some value from this game, go ahead...GL

[drfunkmaster]

good luck.. guess i am only one on royals.

[rawzay]

The Tigers are a tough team to figure out. There an elite team but some nights they look terrible. I wouldn't be shocked if the Royals beat them again.

[HardCore]

i love how ppl are really seriously wondering why a team isnt -230 ON THE ROAD vs a team not names hou/mia lol no wonder so many ppl on this thread lose money and cry all sports are fixed every other night

[Avala7ch3]

i love how ppl are really seriously wondering why a team isnt -230 ON THE ROAD vs a team not names hou/mia lol no wonder so many ppl on this thread lose money and cry all sports are fixed every other night

good point...

[RavensFan2k3]

good luck.. guess i am only one on royals.

I like KC tonight too

[pattymayo]

Kc is red hot, especially their bullpen

If you really have a hard on for Det wait until tomorrow afternoon and take JV at -175 to avoid the sweep like every other joe square will be doing

Stupid to fade KC at home here given how well they have been playing lately

[Marooner]

Kc is red hot, especially their bullpen

If you really have a hard on for Det wait until tomorrow afternoon and take JV at -175 to avoid the sweep like every other joe square will be doing

Stupid to fade KC at home here given how well they have been playing lately

I cant pass on scherzer against davis. maybe i'll have to learn hard way. seems like it's a heavyweight vs a lightweight fight.

[pattymayo]

I cant pass on scherzer against davis. maybe i'll have to learn hard way. seems like it's a heavyweight vs a lightweight fight.

All I can say is consistently laying -160 on the road in a divisional game in MLB is a quick way to watch your bankroll disappear

Tons of better value on the board tonight


Gl though pal

[MANIER08]

AVALA7CH3 IS 100% right if you look at the numbers at all at -165 there is not alot value in this game! especially when you have the stl's and colo's games!! I posted in another thread if I had to pick a big upset it would be kc. i would want -135 or less to take det here for a decent size bet!